Americans Are Broke, Hiring Dries Up, Loans Go Delinquent | Numbers Scream Ep. 20

This week's "Number Scream" focuses on five key statistics highlighting the economic squeeze on America. First, personal consumption expenditures (PCE), a measure of inflation, are up to 3.5%. This trend has been steadily rising from just over 2.5% in the third quarter of last year, through the fourth and first quarters, with a notable jump recently. While the core PCE is 3.2%, the headline PCE is 3.5%, and national average gas prices are at 4.3%. This movement away from the Federal Reserve's 2% target indicates that inflation is not slowing as desired, making interest rate adjustments downward less likely. Second, the personal savings rate has dropped to 3.6%. Historically, the American consumer saved 8-9% in times of economic stability. However, the savings rate has been declining over the past year, peaking at 5.5% a year ago and now sitting at 3.6%. This drop correlates with increased credit card debt, now at $1.3 trillion, and a rise in "Buy Now, Pay Later" (BNPL) usage, where 47% of users had a late payment within their first two installments. This indicates that consumers are feeling a financial pinch, with rising inflation on one side and dwindling savings on the other. Third, student loan delinquencies are a growing concern, particularly for young consumers. One in four student loans, or 25%, are now late. Before the pandemic in 2019, the delinquency rate was around 9%, which was close to the historical average. During the pandemic, a pause on student loan payments effectively halted delinquencies. However, since payments reactivated in 2023, the delinquency rate has surged, reaching 25% by the end of 2025. This impacts approximately 9 million graduates and can significantly lower credit scores by an average of 57 points, affecting access to other loans like car loans. Fourth, hiring has slowed considerably, averaging 75,000 new jobs per month in the first quarter of 2026, down from 167,000 per month just a year and four months prior. Much of the job creation reported earlier, particularly during the Biden administration, was attributed to the reactivation of jobs in sectors like hospitality and entertainment after COVID-19 furloughs, rather than entirely new job creation. This slowdown in hiring, combined with wage growth of only about 3.5% year-over-year—which is negligible when matched with inflation—means that real wage gains are stagnant. This limits opportunities for individuals to advance their careers and increase their income to keep pace with rising costs. Finally, the leading economic indicator (LEI) has been down for eight out of the last ten months, including April. This indicator, provided by the Conference Board, offers a broad measure of the economy's pace. The consistent negative readings, despite some positive trends earlier in the year, collectively suggest a weakening economic outlook. In summary, the American consumer, who drives 70% of the economy, is experiencing a five-fold financial pinch: accelerating prices, diminishing savings, rising student loan delinquencies, stagnant real wages due to slowed hiring, and a declining leading economic indicator. These pressures are compelling many Americans to seek side hustles out of necessity, highlighting a challenging economic environment.