Necesitan una CRISIS PROFUNDA para liberar liquidez. DEVALUARÁN más. Energía y Salud. J. L. Cava

Good morning from Madrid. We're exploring three key questions: could a black swan trigger a market crash, or do we know the source of the next crisis? If a crisis occurs, will the Federal Reserve (Kevin) intervene? And if so, when? Regarding the first question, a black swan is unlikely. The next crisis, if it comes, will likely stem from artificial intelligence (AI). AI currently drives economic growth in the US due to heavy infrastructure investments, boosting earnings for equipment suppliers. However, this creates a vulnerability: a slowdown in AI investments would contract economic activity and corporate profits, leading to a sharp market fall. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are at record highs, but profit growth is concentrated in AI-related companies. A critical factor is the financing needs of "hyperscalers"—large AI infrastructure providers. Their balance sheets show zero net cash flow, meaning they lack liquidity and rely on external financing through loans and bonds. However, investors are becoming cautious. Risk premiums for corporate and high-yield bonds have skyrocketed, indicating investor reluctance to lend to hyperscalers due to profitability concerns. The issue isn't just the cost of financing but its availability. Hyperscalers are competing with the US government and other Western governments for funding, creating fierce competition. A shrinking risk premium for long-term US bonds since July suggests a "flight to safety," with investors buying 10-year Treasury bonds due to fear of an impending crisis. The US and China are in an AI war, making it crucial for the US to prevent hyperscalers from losing funding as they are strategic assets. Therefore, when a crisis occurs, Kevin (the Federal Reserve) will intervene, injecting liquidity and buying public debt. The current talk of monetary discipline is merely a show to build credibility. For safe haven sectors during potential market declines, we previously suggested healthcare. This week, we recommend the energy sector, which historically shows a low, negative correlation with the S&P 500, as seen during the dot-com crisis in 2000. If the S&P 500 falls, the energy sector ETF (XLE) is likely to rise or be less affected. For European residents, the UCITS-labeled ETF with ticker QDVF is suitable. Looking at the XLE chart, the trend is bullish. In the short term, a corrective phase might begin, with potential support around the 60 level (September 2023 highs). On an intraday chart, a fair value gap between 66.19 and 65.25 presents a potential buying opportunity if the price pulls back to this support zone. Similarly, for the QDVF ETF, a support zone between 12.6 and 12.4, coinciding with a fair value gap, offers a potential entry point. It's crucial to set tight stop-losses due to market risks. We anticipate the peak of the crisis, triggering Federal Reserve intervention, could occur around the end of the second quarter of 2027. This is our current working framework, subject to daily adjustments. Goodbye.