TRUMP: HERE IT COMES | Iran Update

The situation in Iran is intensifying, with Donald Trump responding to a Pakistani proposal for a two-week ceasefire. Both the White House and Iran are currently reviewing this proposal. Pakistan's proposal includes opening the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks, with Iran agreeing not to lay mines or attack ships. Additionally, both sides would cease fighting and launching missiles and drones for two weeks. Pakistan is also requesting that Donald Trump extend the current Tuesday deadline by two weeks, a delay that could potentially be mutually agreed upon. Despite earlier implications that negotiations were cut off, Iranian officials have told Reuters that exchange mediations are ongoing. Intelligence from various parts of Iran is conflicting; for instance, the IRGC military suggests increasing strikes on Israel, Kuwait, and surrounding areas. Today has seen numerous drone and missile interceptions, with sirens sounding in Bahrain, the UAE responding to missile threats, and Kuwait closing shops in anticipation of potential impacts. Explosions have been heard in Baghdad, and the Arak Aluminum Facility in central Iran was hit. Israel, Iran, and the United States have all indicated a ramping up of attacks, with an expectation of the most strikes ever today and even more on Tuesday, according to statements from Donald Trump and Hegseth. This suggests a deliberate escalation of pressure. Donald Trump has confirmed he is reviewing the Pakistani peace proposal, and his negotiators have been in "heated negotiations" with Iran. However, there is ambiguity about the power of the Iranian individuals with whom Trump's team believes they are negotiating, especially since other factions within Iran deny any negotiations with Trump. The only consistent point from both sides is the review of the Pakistani proposal. The Pakistani proposal was assembled by the army chief of Pakistan, indicating its high-level significance. Pakistan, a neighbor to Iran, has consistently offered its capital for meetings to resolve the conflict. The stability of the entire region is at stake, and high oil prices are a concern. Brent oil prices for near-term short delivery hit $144 per barrel this morning, though future-dated Brent and WTI have since retraced slightly. Recent leaks suggest the possibility of good news soon, with a potential delay of the 8 p.m. Eastern deadline to midnight, followed by a negotiated ceasefire. Earlier scenarios considered a 15% chance of Donald Trump bombing bridges and power plants, which is hoped to remain low given the presence of civilians, including children, protesting on or near such infrastructure. A 50% chance of an extension due to progress in talks was also considered, which now appears to be the more likely and "bullish" scenario, indicating actual progress and a desire to avoid continued war. Four people have been injured in Qatar after debris fell on a house following a missile interception. Nancy Pelosi has publicly criticized Donald Trump's instability, calling for Congress to convene and end the war, especially after Democrats' initial proposal to end the war was rejected by the Republican-controlled Congress. New intelligence suggests imminent progress, possibly reflected in Bitcoin nearing $70,000, though this is likely a trading phenomenon rather than a fundamental shift. A regional source reiterates the expectation of good news from both sides soon. Donald Trump is awaiting a full briefing on Iran's counterproposals and extension requests. This aligns with the expectation of an announcement about progress in talks and a two-week extension, which would hopefully lead to the Strait of Hormuz remaining open, calming oil prices and markets, and helping the economy avoid a recession.