เตรียมรับแรงกระแทก ‘ยุคของแพง’ สงครามดันเงินเฟ้อไทยสูงสุดรอบ 38 เดือน | Morning Wealth 7 พ.ค. 69

Today's program, broadcast on Thursday, May 7, 2026, discussed several pressing economic and geopolitical issues, focusing on inflation, the Land Bridge project, and the evolving situation in the Middle East. Inflation is a major concern, with global factors heavily influencing domestic prices. The US stock market hit an all-time high, partly due to expectations of the Middle East conflict ending and Donald Trump's upcoming visit to China. Conversely, oil prices dipped below $100 USD. Dr. Nitititham Prapha, overseeing Project Freedom, noted that past political conflicts were less intense than current global tensions. The rising oil prices are a significant driver of worldwide inflation, a phenomenon Thailand is now experiencing more acutely than in previous years. Mr. Nanthapong Chiralertpong, Director of the Office of Policy and Strategy at the Trade Department, Ministry of Commerce, reported that Thailand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April rose to 2.89% year-on-year, nearly reaching the upper limit of the target range and representing a 38-year high. This is primarily a "supply push" issue, driven by increased fuel prices, a global trend exacerbated by the Middle East conflict. Additionally, ready-to-eat meal prices have risen due to entrepreneurs passing on costs, and fresh vegetable prices have increased due to extremely hot weather, not oil prices. Core inflation, excluding fresh food and energy, also rose by 83% year-on-year. For the entire year, the forecast for general inflation trends is around 69%. Two scenarios were presented: a baseline case where Dubai crude oil stabilizes at $120 per barrel for two months (April-May) before declining to $70, leading to an annual inflation rate of 1.5-2.5%; and a worse-case scenario where oil stabilizes at $120 for three months (April-June) and only drops to $80, pushing annual inflation to 2.5-3.5%, exceeding the upper limit. May's inflation rate is projected at 3.06%, surpassing the 1-3% policy target. Rising energy and transportation costs are unavoidable and are being passed on to raw material prices. In October, inflation surged to 4.05%. Key items contributing to April's inflation include ready-to-eat meals (2.51% increase), fuel prices (30.23% increase), and public transportation fares (8.82% increase). Specific fare increases were noted for shared taxis (9.24%), motorcycle taxis (4.94%), freight (11.14%-14%), inter-district vans (3.26%), first-class air-conditioned buses (6.68%), provincial economy travel (10.12%), and international flights (24.09%). Conversely, prices for non-alcoholic drinks increased by 1.35%, cooking appliances decreased by 4.66%, and personal items decreased by 2.33%. The price of common Thai dishes, such as fried rice or Hainanese chicken rice, saw increases: 31-40 baht range rose by 20.64%, 41-50 baht range by 13.36%, and 51-60 baht range by 16.16%. These figures do not include fast food or delivery services. Thailand faces a risk of "stagflation" (stagnation with high inflation), although it has not fully entered this state yet. The first quarter saw export growth of 17.8%, private consumption up 4.7%, and private investment up 12.4%. The unemployment rate in March was 0.96%. However, future growth may slow due to the Middle East conflict affecting foreign demand and tourism, and domestic demand trending downwards as costs are passed to consumers. The government's "Thai Help Thai Plus" scheme and other measures are expected to temporarily boost purchasing power and consumer confidence but may not significantly impact inflation. Kasikorn Research Center's report indicates that April's 2.89% inflation is the first positive year-on-year figure in 12 months and the first time within the 1-3% target range in 14 months, marking the beginning of a sharp increase. Energy prices, particularly the energy price index, rose by 18.9% year-on-year. Government policies have also adjusted water prices and reduced the burden on the fuel fund. Processed food prices increased, and extreme weather impacted fruit and vegetable farming. The proportion of items with increased prices in the inflation basket rose from 49.8% to 54.1% in April. The overall inflation rate for the year is projected to stay above the 3.4-4% target, with a peak in the third quarter. Energy prices are expected to rise, with the second quarter seeing the most significant peak before a decline in the second half of the year if the Middle East situation eases. However, crude oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels soon, with an annual average of around $90 per barrel. The destruction of energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will take time to recover. Agricultural product prices are also rising due to increased military activities, energy costs for fertilizers, and adverse weather conditions. Core inflation is expected to remain stable or decline slightly, but ready-made food prices and shipping rates will gradually adjust upwards, peaking in the second and third quarters. The Land Bridge project was discussed in detail, with Deputy Minister of Transport Siripong Angkasakulkiat emphasizing its necessity amidst global changes and potential Strait of Hormuz closures. The project aims to create deep-sea ports on both the Gulf of Thailand and Andaman Sea coasts, connecting them via roads, rail, and pipelines for oil and gas. This project is positioned as an alternative to digging a canal across the Kra Isthmus, which would be more expensive (estimated at 2 trillion baht compared to the Land Bridge's 900 billion baht) and logistically challenging due to mountainous terrain. The Land Bridge is envisioned as a Public-Private Partnership (PPP), with the state preparing the land and the private sector investing in operations. The FIRR (Financial Internal Rate of Return) for the Land Bridge is estimated at 11.8% and the EIRR (Economic Internal Rate of Return) at 8.7%. Discussions with companies in Dubai and China indicate interest. The project aims to save shipping costs and time by replacing sea transport for containers, potentially saving 15% and 4 days of travel compared to the Malacca Strait route. The Ministry of Transport's 2024 "Rosé show" indicated interest from over 400 shipping companies. The Prime Minister has appointed a committee, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Ekniti, to review the Land Bridge concept within 90 days, considering economic, environmental, social, and community impacts. The government emphasizes that this is not a state-funded project but aims to attract private sector investment, thereby mitigating public debt burden. The project's legal framework, similar to the EEC Act, will address investment conditions, tax rates, and local lifestyle considerations. The earliest investment could occur by 2073 if interested parties are secured. The Middle East situation remains tense, despite reports of Project Freedom (a US initiative to protect commercial ships in the Persian Gulf) being temporarily suspended due to ongoing US-Iran negotiations. Donald Trump's social media post suggested significant progress towards an agreement, possibly leading to an end to the conflict before his trip to Beijing. However, the UK Maritime Authority reported attacks on cargo ships, and the UAE stated that Iran attacked its oil port in Fujairah. US officials, including Foreign Minister Marco Rubio, confirmed the end of Operation Erferi (Epic Fury), an offensive operation, and stressed a defensive approach focusing on reconstructing shipping routes. The US aims for a diplomatic solution, with discussions on Iran's negotiation terms. China is also involved in talks with Iran, suggesting a multilateral effort to de-escalate tensions. The global aviation industry is significantly impacted by jet fuel shortages, especially in Europe, which sources 20% of its aviation fuel from the Persian Gulf. Refining capacity is constrained, and raw crude oil supply is limited. Global jet fuel exports dropped by 30% in April, from 1.9 million to 1.3 million barrels per day. Major airlines like Lufthansa have cut 20,000 short-haul flights. Even if the conflict ends, it will take weeks or months for energy supplies to normalize due to infrastructure damage and the need to clear explosives. Oil stocks are dropping to minimum levels, and energy-importing countries may face severe shortages by mid-year if the situation is not resolved. The long-term impact on energy structure and cost prices is expected to last for many years. The stock market reacted positively to the news. The Dow Jones rose 612 points (1.24%) to 49,910, the S&P 500 jumped 1.46% to 7,365, and NASDAQ surged over 2% (512 points) to 25,838. This optimism is attributed to reports of a potential resolution to the Iran conflict. Oil prices eased but remained high, with Brent crude at around $101 and WTI at $98 per barrel. Gold prices rose significantly by $134 (nearly 3%) to $4,700. US government bond yields decreased, and the dollar weakened. Asian markets also performed well. The Tokyo stock market rose over 2,300 points (3.9%) to 61,800, marking the first time it exceeded 60,000. The Japanese yen experienced volatility, strengthening to a 10-year high for a week, leading to speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities. The yen weakened by 1.8% in just half an hour during Asian trading hours, closing at 156.42 against the US dollar. Analysts suggest this volatility reflects market intervention, possibly by the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which intervened in April, spending approximately $34 billion. The program concluded by promoting a "Leading with Sense of Humor" workshop, emphasizing the importance of humor in leadership for stress management and creating a positive work atmosphere, especially in challenging times.