‘เมกะโปรเจกต์แลนด์บริดจ์’ 1 ล้านล้าน คุ้มไหม? เมื่อตัวเลขจากรัฐยังสวนทาง | Morning Wealth 6 พ.ค. 69

Good morning, everyone. Today's program, hosted by Witthayasit Wekin and Fern Surathaya Isaraphakdee, focuses on several critical economic and geopolitical issues. We'll be discussing the emergency decree for borrowing 400 billion baht, the Landbridge project, international relations, particularly involving the US, Iran, and China, and the global market situation. The emergency decree to borrow 400 billion baht has stirred debate. The Ministry of Finance argues this is necessary to address three waves of risk: soaring energy prices, rising production costs, and declining purchasing power, which could lead to "stagflation" – a slowdown under high inflation. The government claims it lacks immediate funds, as the 2027 budget is months away and the 2026 budget is fully allocated. This decree is proposed under Section 53 of the Public Finance and Treasury Act B.E. 2561. The loan aims to serve two main purposes, each allocated 200 billion baht. The first is for assistance and relief, targeting the public, farmers, and entrepreneurs to alleviate financial burdens. The second is for structural adjustment, focusing on energy transition, promoting renewable energy, environmentally friendly vehicles, and skills development for the new economy. The decree is expected to be presented to parliament on May 14th. The Ministry of Finance's Fiscal Policy Office and the NESDC estimate that this 400 billion baht could boost GDP by an additional 2-3%, with an economic multiplier effect greater than one. The public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to remain under the 70% limit, reaching around 69% by 2028. This figure is lower than the initial 500 billion baht proposal, indicating careful consideration within fiscal discipline. However, other predictions suggest the public debt-to-GDP ratio could hit the ceiling by 2027, especially if the 400 billion baht emergency loan is included. Ms. Nattaporn Tree's research, cited by Ms. Sirikul, indicates that this loan could stabilize the business sector, maintain employment, and reduce the risk of stagflation. However, long-term negative consequences include potential increases in government bond yields, leading to higher borrowing costs for businesses and impacting the public. The capital market, particularly Krungthai Bank's Songwong Chungsakul, believes the impact will be limited as the market has already factored in the news. Increased bond supply will likely lead to higher returns, with 10-year bond yields expected to rise to 2.3% next year, or 2.5% in a worst-case scenario. In the short term, the stock market views the decree positively, as the funds will stimulate the economy, support businesses, and benefit consumer goods sectors. Indirectly, however, it could increase borrowing costs for private companies, particularly those with high debt levels. Concerns have been raised about the public debt ceiling. While the government projects it at 69%, close to the 70% limit, some academics worry it might be touched sooner. The effectiveness of the spending is also a key concern. The Governor of the Bank of Thailand, Pitayaratthanakorn, emphasized that government measures should include a considerable proportion of investment to sustain the economy long-term. While acknowledging the need to help low-income individuals and SMEs, he stressed that focusing on consumption yields short-term results, whereas investment benefits the economy in the long term. The Monetary Policy Committee's assessment suggests that an additional 300 billion baht in fiscal measures, including consumption, investment, infrastructure, co-payment schemes, and electric vehicle promotion, could boost the Thai economy by 0.5-0.7% in 2026, with a downward adjustment of 0.5% in 2027. The Governor also highlighted that fiscal policy is the best tool to deal with the uneven impact of the Middle East war, which disproportionately affects vulnerable groups and specific industries like transportation and petrochemicals. Monetary policy, being a "blunt tool," cannot address specific problems as effectively. The central bank is monitoring teacher debt and implementing measures to cope with the Middle East war's impact, though the current situation hasn't reached the severity of the COVID-19 period. Banks are urged to restructure debt, reduce principal or interest payments, and utilize programs like SME Credit Bureau and CQ Plus to improve liquidity for SMEs. Another significant project under scrutiny is the Landbridge, with an estimated investment of 1 trillion baht. This project, initiated under General Prayut's government and promoted by subsequent administrations, aims to enhance Thailand's economic potential. The Ministry of Transport suggests it could attract freight transport, reduce travel time by 4 days compared to bypassing the Malacca Strait, and yield an economic return (EIRR) of 17.43%, creating over 28,000 jobs in the southern region. However, a conflicting report from the NESDC, in collaboration with Chulalongkorn University Academic Service Center, argues the project is not economically feasible. They contend that the initial capital of over 1 trillion baht for deep-sea ports in Ranong and Chumphon, double-track railways, expressways, and energy transportation systems would result in a negative net present value. Revenue might be lower due to competition with the Malacca Strait, forcing the Landbridge to target a niche market, which may not generate sufficient profits to offset high operation and maintenance costs. Professor Anusorn Thammachai warned that if the project fails to attract multinational funding, the government would bear the investment, potentially leading to a "semi-colonial economic situation" with extraterritoriality if special privileges like 99-year land leases or tax exemptions are granted. This could allow powerful countries or multinational corporations to exert authority, creating political sensitivity. Environmental concerns are also significant. Chulalongkorn University's report highlights the need for a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA), beyond just an EIA. This includes assessing cumulative impacts, such as industrial factories following port construction leading to air pollution and waste, potentially overwhelming the southern ecosystem. Conflicts with local communities, who depend on natural resources and tourism, are also anticipated, as mega-projects can destroy income sources and lead to social problems. Professor Anusorn suggested a neutral agency conduct further studies, incorporating geopolitical and security dimensions, especially given the Middle East war and potential future tolls in the Malacca Strait. He advocates for an inclusive policy design using Open Data and democratic participation to avoid exacerbating inequality. He also cautioned against conflicts of interest, which could lead to policy-level corruption and negatively impact future generations. Dr. Somkiat Tangkit Wanich, Chairman of TDRI, discussed how mega-projects often fail due to over-optimism or manipulation of figures to make projects appear more attractive than they are. He emphasized the importance of thorough feasibility studies, economic impact assessments, and cost-effectiveness analysis before proceeding. The discrepancy between the Ministry of Transport's optimistic projections (positive present value, excellent returns) and Chulalongkorn University's pessimistic outlook (project resulting in a loss, small returns) is a major concern. Dr. Somkiat stressed the need to seriously review these figures and avoid rushing planning and implementation, as hasty projects may not yield expected benefits. The US Supreme Court recently ruled that Donald Trump overstepped his authority in collecting reciprocal tariffs, requiring the return of tax money, estimated at $166 million, to importers. The Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agency has begun processing these refunds through an electronic system, with the first round expected next week. A new online platform, CA, was rapidly developed to handle refunds, but 15% of verified items were rejected due to data issues. Richard Eaton stated that while the system has flaws, rejected requests can be corrected and resubmitted, and importers can track their refund status. A crucial upcoming event is the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14-15. This meeting is vital for setting the direction and stability of the long-term relationship between the two superpowers. Trump is reportedly seeking to end the war with Iran to gain political points ahead of his re-election campaign. While Trump's rhetoric often downplays China's technological advancements, the world is keen on the substance of the negotiations. Analysts suggest that while the US has been embroiled in conflict, China has gained an advantage by positioning itself as a pillar of stability and peace, potentially bringing Iran to the negotiating table. China also benefits from its strong domestic market, leadership in the rare earth mineral supply chain, and reduced export restrictions on high-tech goods. However, some, like William Keane, argue that both sides have existing bargaining power, and the war in Iran may not significantly alter it. The outcome of the meeting will profoundly impact trade and investment relations. The conflict in the Persian Gulf remains tense. The US launched "Operation Freedom" to protect commercial ships, emphasizing it's a defensive, humanitarian effort rather than an offensive military operation. This followed missile attacks on a UAE ship in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Secretary of War, Pete Hex, confirmed the ceasefire agreement is still in effect, and the situation is not a state of war. US forces are ready to return to base if necessary and are urging other countries to assist the 1,550 commercial ships and 22,000 crew members currently stranded in the Gulf. Iran has warned all ships to avoid the Hormuz channel and now requires official confirmation for passage. The US aims to de-escalate the conflict, but ongoing attacks suggest a prolonged situation. The US is imposing a blockade on Iran, which in turn threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for a significant portion of the world's oil. Despite geopolitical tensions, global capital markets, particularly the US stock market, continue to hit all-time highs. The S&P 500, NASTA Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average all saw gains, driven by positive investor reactions to earnings reports and declining oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell by 3.9% to $102.27 per barrel, and North Sea crude oil dropped nearly 4% to $109.87 per barrel. China is rapidly advancing its military and technological capabilities. The Chinese navy is upgrading its defense systems to counter a new generation of drones, reflecting lessons from recent conflicts like the Russo-Ukrainian war. These low-cost, highly effective drones pose a significant threat to large fleets. China's new air defense system, having passed final tests in the Bohai Sea, is designed to intercept multiple low-altitude, stealthy drones. China is also developing directional energy weapons like the "Liaoyuan 1" laser to handle small drones and swarm attacks, reinforcing its naval strength. In supercomputing, China aims to reclaim leadership with its new "Ling Sheng" device, developed entirely with domestic technology. Ling Sheng boasts a processing power of 2 exaFLOPS, or 2 quintillion calculations per second, surpassing previous records. This machine uses only CPUs, unlike most new supercomputers that rely on GPUs, and is completely independent of foreign hardware and software. If confirmed, this achievement would make China the world leader in supercomputing again, reducing its dependence on US technology amidst export restrictions. Thailand is also participating in the "Select USA Investment Summit 2026" in Maryland, led by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce, Ms. Suphajee Suthamphan. The Thai delegation, including officials from public and private sectors, aims to upgrade trade and investment cooperation with the US. The event, hosted by the US Department of Commerce, attracted over 2,700 investors and 1,100 agencies from 50 US states. The focus is on revitalizing manufacturing, future technology, clean energy, biotechnology, supply chains, and attracting FDI to the US. Thailand signed MOUs with the US Trade Representative (USTR) to promote cooperation and agricultural imports. The increased participation of Thai private sector businesses signifies their readiness to seek investment opportunities and attract more US investment into Thailand. The overarching theme remains the careful consideration of massive investment projects and emergency loans, weighing short-term relief against long-term structural changes, and the potential impact on public debt, economic stability, and geopolitical standing. The discrepancies in project assessments and the need for transparency and inclusive policy design are paramount to avoid unintended negative consequences.