Marché Haussier mais Choppy, voici comment je le lis - La Météo des Marchés

This is a market weather report that uses the Alpha Terminal tool to gather information. The speaker notes that artificial intelligence has significantly changed the finance industry, particularly regarding influencers and news. Many online financial commentators now read AI-generated scripts or tweets, lacking genuine human insight or expertise. The speaker emphasizes a personal approach of combining price action, technical indicators, and market experience with news, aiming to minimize time wasted on videos. The Alpha Terminal provides a summary of market sessions. The previous day's US session was slightly bullish, the European session was mixed, and the Asian session was characterized by "chop," a term indicating a lack of clear direction. The speaker's afternoon market analysis also reflected this choppy price action. Recent news includes former President Trump's intervention, which was described as lacking substance, except for an unusual appearance with a rabbit. More significantly, Iran announced its rejection of all negotiations, which is considered negative news. However, the market reacted positively to this development. The speaker had previously focused on Bitcoin, questioning if its rally had momentum. They noted that Bitcoin was "loaded" with derivatives, and indeed, the cryptocurrency saw a slight downturn that day. The speaker then reviews sector performance to track where money is flowing. They also have a synthesis of important news, including an upcoming deadline on Tuesday when Trump is expected to speak, potentially impacting Iranian nuclear facilities. This comes amidst strong oil prices. This week's economic data includes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Friday, which is crucial, especially given rising oil prices contributing to inflation. This inflation puts pressure on the Federal Reserve, potentially hindering their ability to implement the interest rate cuts investors are hoping for to achieve easy money. The speaker also highlights significant bank earnings this week from companies like Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Bank of America. While acknowledging that bank charts aren't entirely unappealing, the speaker expresses some reservations. They analyze Goldman Sachs' chart, noting a bullish leg and a trendline break, with a potential target to retest previous highs. However, they question the risk-reward ratio, given the stock's position at the top of a W formation. Despite this, they suggest it could be a tradable opportunity with a stop loss below the structure, aiming for a retest of highs or all-time highs. This is presented as a more pessimistic view of the trade following a trendline break. Alternatively, the speaker considers the possibility that banks might have positive prospects ahead. However, they caution that banks have previously exhibited "macro tops" on a weekly scale. While the structure might be less evident on Goldman Sachs than on JP Morgan, the speaker describes the current chart as "ugly." They categorize these as defensive stocks but point out a broken structure and a pattern of lower highs and lower lows on a larger timeframe, suggesting that a rebound might fail. They recall similar situations in the past where rallies after structural changes didn't end well, particularly for Goldman Sachs. The speaker questions whether to trade bank earnings based on the idea of a resurgence, noting similarities in charts between JP Morgan and other banks. They conclude that the sector might offer opportunities, but it's a matter of risk management, as any losses should be digestible. Bank earnings are due on April 13th. The speaker then checks stress indicators, noting that oil remains strong and resistant. They reiterate a preference for range-bound scenarios over strong trends, even when the trend appears robust. While acknowledging the bullishness of oil, they maintain that a range-bound scenario, potentially around $86, remains a possibility. Zooming out on the oil chart reveals more defined ranges and a "turbulence zone" between extreme resistances. They suggest avoiding aggressive trades within this zone, noting past consolidations and the potential for similar patterns. The VIX remains elevated, which is described as the "new normal." The speaker mentions using Alpha Terminal for earnings, which also provides "sympathies" – related stocks. For example, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) is mentioned, suggesting its performance could impact other semiconductor stocks like AMD, which is currently looking positive. This illustrates the speaker's process for identifying sectors and rotations, always cross-referenced with price action, as the "truth is in the price." Significant option flow was observed into SanDisk (SNDK) at the start of the week. Overall, option premiums on puts suggest a cautious market sentiment, with many open short positions indicating underlying fears despite some buying activity. The US session had not yet begun at the time of speaking. Money was primarily flowing into performing stocks like SNDK and Marvel, with some activity in the "Magnificent Seven," but progress was slow. The speaker frames Iran's rejection of negotiations as "good news as bad news." They attempt to locate the specific news report, mentioning it came out around 2:09 PM their time, coinciding with a sharp downward wick on the S&P 500. Despite this, the market's reaction was not overly negative, suggesting a "choppy" market that isn't moving decisively. They suggest a potential range-bound scenario for the indices, acknowledging that while circumstances aren't improving, the market is holding up reasonably well. Regarding Bitcoin, the speaker recalls advising against considering positions at the high end of open interest, as it wasn't optimal. Some long positions were liquidated, and a bottom is not yet in sight. While an ambitious push higher is possible, the current crypto market trend suggests the lower end of the range is the most likely destination. The speaker then addresses the growing interest in AI among crypto influencers. While also interested in AI for performance enhancement, they highlight an "intelligent AI journal" offered to Alpha members. This tool helps analyze trades, fill them in frictionlessly, and provide guidance from an AI coach trained by the speaker. This contrasts with influencers who are shifting focus to AI, possibly due to a perceived decline in interest in crypto. The speaker reiterates their commitment to trading and views AI as a tool to improve trading rather than a get-rich-quick scheme. They criticize the idea of simple prompts leading to massive profits, emphasizing their own approach, which includes statistics, process, and mindset. They believe AI should be integrated into these foundational elements of professional trading. The speaker observes a broader societal shift towards AI, citing celebrities and major figures engaging with AI development. They suggest that the AI "bubble" is expanding beyond financial markets to encompass human intellect. They ponder the future of trading in 2026, questioning whether human traders will still be relevant or if AI will dominate. The speaker identifies as an "artisanal" trader who prefers to trade their own ideas and will continue to use good tools with an old-fashioned methodology. The report concludes with a brief outlook on the market, suggesting that indices are showing "ascending chop," meaning they are moving higher within a choppy pattern, citing Amazon and Apple as examples. While charts are moving away from support levels, the speaker wonders if this is simply a matter of having the courage to take positions. The market's ultimate direction will be revealed over time.