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A two-week ceasefire has been agreed upon by Israel, Iran, the Ayatollah, and the United States. Israel has expressed reluctance, stating they still have military targets in the region they wish to complete. However, Israel has agreed to be bound by the deal, acknowledging Donald Trump as a leader and Bibi as an ally. Donald Trump has tentatively set an in-person meeting in Islamabad, Pakistan, for Friday, though his press secretary has stated it is not yet a set deal and an official announcement is pending from Trump. Despite the ceasefire, bombs are still being sent to Israel, suggesting potential communication issues between different factions. The United States and Israel had intensified bombing in Iran over the preceding 48 hours, possibly anticipating a pause or ceasefire. Iran's Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, has approved the ceasefire, which is seen as significant given his veto power over all decisions. Both Iran and Donald Trump are claiming victory. Iran asserts it forced the US to accept its 10-point plan, while Trump claims the war is essentially over. The ceasefire has led to an immediate collapse in oil prices. Western crude for the May contract dropped from around $116-$117 to about $96, even reaching as low as $92-$94. Brent crude similarly fell to around $93. While these prices are significantly lower than before the ceasefire, they remain substantially higher than the $60 per barrel seen at the start of the year, indicating a continued impact on consumers and travel. The war is not yet over, and caution is advised. The market is also reacting to the potential for rate cuts, which are now being priced in. December futures indicate a 40.8% chance of rate cuts in December, a significant shift from just two weeks prior when rate hikes were considered more likely. This is viewed as a bullish catalyst, though underlying economic risks persist. ADP jobs data for the month showed a growth of approximately 65,000 jobs, indicating decent underlying economic health, although a negative CPI report is expected on Friday. Iran's tentative 10-point plan to end the war, which Donald Trump considers "workable," includes several key conditions, all subject to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz: 1. **Permanent end to hostilities:** This is seen as easy to agree to, as future hostilities could always be justified with new conditions. 2. **Guarantees that the US and Israel won't attack again:** If this is a promise rather than a monetary guarantee, it's also considered a "gimme." 3. **Ceasefire includes Israel's war with Hezbollah in Lebanon:** This is a point of contention for Israel, as they are not confident about their safety from Hezbollah rockets. 4. **All sanctions on Iran should be lifted:** This would include sanctions imposed by previous administrations, though new sanctions could always be issued. 5. **All sanctions lifted on Iran's allies:** This implies lifting sanctions on countries like China, Russia, and North Korea. Russia is seen as a major beneficiary, gaining deeper ties with Iran and potentially motivating increased weapons production in Russia. 6. **Iran takes control of the Strait of Hormuz:** Iran's military would coordinate passage through the strait. 7. **Iran can charge fees on crossing the strait:** Previously proposed at $1 per barrel, to be split with Oman. This is not considered a major financial issue. 8. **Use toll money for reconstruction:** This is seen as a way to frame reparations as a global economic contribution rather than direct payments from Israel or the US. The full 10-point plan is not yet entirely clear, but these points form the basis for negotiation. The immediate impact on the market includes a rally in risk-on assets, with the NASDAQ 100 technology index breaking through resistance levels and Bitcoin also seeing a surge. Despite the ceasefire announcement, an Iranian launch against Israel was detected minutes after Trump's announcement, followed by another volley an hour later, accompanied by missile and drone warnings in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE. This indicates that the situation remains fluid and not entirely resolved. In terms of stock market opportunities, the current environment presents chances to "buy the dip," particularly in software companies that may have been unfairly impacted by the recent "AI mess." While memory stocks are nearing peak prices, software offers significant potential. Examples include Applovin, with a relatively low valuation and potential 70% upside, and Amazon, also showing good upside potential. Apple, however, is considered one of the more expensive "Mag 7" stocks. Palantir, previously overvalued, is now considered to be at a fair valuation with excellent EPS projections and strong commercial revenue growth. Caution is advised for consumer plays like Affirm and financials like Swarmer and VCX, which are predicted to collapse. Meta and Microsoft are highlighted as having very cheap PEG ratios, suggesting significant upside. Intuit and Axon are also identified as "flashing buys" for long-term investors, with strong balance sheets, improving margins, and unique market positions.