How Much Could Michael Jackson's Estate Make From 'Michael'?

The upcoming Michael Jackson biopic is anticipated to follow the success model of other musical biopics, particularly "Bohemian Rhapsody," which grossed $900 million worldwide. Graham King, the producer of "Bohemian Rhapsody," is also producing the Michael Jackson film, having secured the rights from the Michael Jackson estate. While musical biopics generally have a domestic ceiling in the United States, with "Bohemian Rhapsody" making $260 million domestically and other hits like "Elvis," "Straight Outta Compton," "Bob Marley: One Love," and "Rocketman" falling between $100 million and $160 million, their international performance often dictates overall success. "Bohemian Rhapsody" uniquely exploded internationally, earning $700 million overseas, including significant amounts in Japan, South Korea, and Australia. The release strategy for the Michael Jackson movie appears to be geared toward international markets, evidenced by its premiere in Germany. This aligns with a recent renegotiation by the Jackson estate regarding international distribution terms for his music catalog, aiming to maximize earnings from his songs and master recordings globally. This international focus is expected to benefit both the movie's box office and Michael Jackson's music earnings, as a biopic often acts as a two-hour commercial for the artist, boosting all associated businesses. Typically, artists or their estates receive modest upfront payments for biopics, usually $1 to $3 million, plus about 5% profit participation. For most biopics, this translates to single-digit millions in total earnings for the artists or their estates, which is a small fraction compared to an artist like Michael Jackson's annual earnings, which exceeded $100 million last year. However, "Bohemian Rhapsody" presented a different scenario. Publicly available figures from the UK show that dividends paid to Queen members jumped significantly after the movie's release: from $7 million annually before the film, to $10 million in 2018, $25 million in 2019, $26 million in 2020, and $22 million in 2021. This success also revitalized their musical, "We Will Rock You." The Michael Jackson biopic is projected to be the most expensive Hollywood biopic ever, with a budget estimated between $150 million and $200 million. To achieve profitability and significant profit participation, it would need to gross approximately $600 million to $700 million worldwide, a feat only "Bohemian Rhapsody" has accomplished among music biopics. For artists or estates to earn beyond the single-digit millions, the film needs to be a massive hit on the scale of "Bohemian Rhapsody." Additionally, investing in the film's production upfront can increase an estate's share of the profits. The Michael Jackson estate is known to have contributed to the production, including funding massive reshoots, which could give them greater equity, but they would first need to recoup their investment before seeing substantial profits.