Moody’s เพิ่มแนวโน้มเรตติ้ง ‘ไทย’ ยังมีอะไรที่ยังต้องกังวล? | THE STANDARD WEALTH

Global energy price increases are impacting industries, as reflected in the Federation of Thai Industries' (FTI) confidence index for March, which dropped to 88.6 from 90.00 in February 2026. This decline is attributed to various factors, particularly conflicts in the Middle East leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This situation has driven up energy and transportation costs, consequently raising production costs and affecting the industrial sector, including exports to the Middle East, such as automotive air conditioning and wood products. Industries are also grappling with raw material and supply shortages, including chemical plastic pellets and packaging. The cost of aluminum production has risen, necessitating price adjustments. Shipping delays have inflated freight rates, with increased premiums for risk insurance and additional fees for backlogged inventory destined for Gulf countries, further pressuring business costs. A survey of 1,311 businesses across 48 industry groups revealed growing concerns among entrepreneurs. Key factors contributing to these worries include energy prices (71.9%), the global economy (69.8%), the domestic economy (57.7%), and interest rates (21.4%). While industry confidence for the next three months remains high at 95.9, businesses fear prolonged trends impacting supply chains and logistics in manufacturing and related sectors, as well as Thailand's tourism sector. Fluctuating electricity prices, specifically the Fuel Adjustment Charge (FT), are projected to increase by approximately 4 baht per unit from May to August 2026 due to rising energy prices. This will further escalate energy costs for the industrial sector. Concurrently, a slowdown in demand from trading partners in the Persian Gulf region, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, is expected to pressure Thai exports in sectors like automotive, food, beverages, air fresheners, jewelry, and wood products. Industries with high energy consumption, such as steel, cement, and aluminum in construction, are particularly vulnerable, with potential factory closures if the situation persists for 3-4 months, ultimately impacting employment. The government is reportedly preparing targeted energy measures to alleviate cost burdens on businesses and stabilize the economy. The private sector proposes several measures to the government, including a reduction in excise tax on fuel, stabilization of fuel prices through the Fuel Fund, and regulations to prevent oil stockpiling. They also advocate for accelerated energy conservation measures, such as promoting transport grouping and backhauling management to reduce empty vehicle runs and transportation costs. Additionally, they suggest suspending the export of scrap metal, aluminum, and scrap paper to ensure sufficient raw materials for domestic use and developing a database for domestic and alternative raw material sources to mitigate supply chain disruptions.