Soutenu par Trump et Poutine, Orbán peut-il perdre ?

The upcoming election in Hungary is drawing international attention because it could determine the future of Europe, particularly concerning Viktor Orban's long tenure. Despite polls predicting his defeat after 16 years in power, Orban enjoys support from figures like Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. JD Vance even campaigned with Orban and called Trump, a situation described as "crazy." Hungary, a small, relatively poor, and corrupt European nation, has become a focal point due to Orban's unique position. He has transformed into a hero for nationalist right-wing movements across Europe and acts as a collaborator with powerful global figures, including Putin and Trump. His usefulness to them stems from his position within the European Union, allowing him to act as a "traitor" or "Trojan horse" from within. Recent revelations have confirmed this betrayal. Secret conversations, including one between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and his Russian counterpart, have been made public. Bloomberg also reported a dialogue between Orban and Putin, where Orban described himself as "the mouse of the Russian lion," using a fable by La Fontaine. The extent of this betrayal was further revealed when the Hungarian Foreign Minister was found to be leaving European Council meetings to call Sergey Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, and divulge confidential information. This amounts to sharing secret meeting content with an declared enemy of the European Union, the motivations for which are unclear. Orban’s political trajectory is noteworthy. In the early 1990s, he was seen as a hero of young liberals, founding the Fidesz party. He gained prominence by publicly demanding the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Budapest. Today, he is in deep collaboration with Vladimir Putin, an heir to the Soviet system and a former KGB officer. Orban now orchestrates demonstrations in Budapest where thousands protest against Russians, a stark contrast to his earlier stance. Orban's pro-Putin, pro-Trump, and anti-Zelensky stance, including blocking a European loan, highlights the European Union's vulnerability. The EU, described as "naïve" and "impowering," has allowed this "wolf in the sheepfold" for too long. Treaties do not provide for the exclusion of a member, and suspending voting rights requires unanimous consent from the other 26 members. The presence of allies like Slovakia or, at times, Poland makes such actions difficult. The EU's leniency is also attributed to personal relationships among heads of state. Orban is reportedly charming in private, leading to a "bubble" where leaders maintain friendly relations despite his public actions. They might perceive his aggressive stance towards Brussels as a necessary performance for his domestic audience, not a genuine threat. This has led to a "lightness" that allowed Orban to solidify his power. If Orban loses, it would be a significant setback for Putin and Trump, as he is a key figure in their broader project to dismantle liberal democracies in Europe and establish illiberal ones. Orban's rhetoric about fighting "woke and decadent forces" masks a dictatorial path aimed at destroying the rule of law for personal gain, establishing an autocracy and kleptocracy. His personal wealth, having become a billionaire as Prime Minister through unexplained means, points to a system of corruption involving public contracts and kickbacks. Despite his tight grip on power, Orban is facing a potential decline. The public is growing weary. While he was initially elected with a two-thirds majority in 2010, allowing him to change the Constitution and control key state institutions like the judiciary, universities, and media, his re-election has become almost inevitable through these means. However, urban elites with internet access and broader information remain critical. In rural areas, state television, which excludes opposition figures like Peter Magyar, dominates, leaving social media and grassroots campaigns as the only avenues for the opposition. Given his embrace of "Trumpism," there are concerns that Orban might not accept defeat gracefully if the polls prove accurate. His history of eroding the rule of law, employing disinformation, and receiving support from Russian intelligence in Budapest suggests he might not accept a peaceful transition. However, there is always the possibility that the polls are wrong, and he could still emerge victorious. The situation will be closely monitored.