Prévisions : Calme Plat - La Météo des Marchés

The market forecast for Thursday suggests a neutral day, following a surprise major rebound at the end of Tuesday's U.S. session and into Wednesday's pre-market, leaving many without open positions due to a previously anxious atmosphere. Current information is mixed, with Iran accusing the U.S. of violating a ceasefire agreement. The VIX index has significantly decreased compared to its 30-day average, indicating reduced anxiety. Bitcoin is neutral, and the Fear & Greed Index has moved out of "extreme fear," signaling a return of optimism. Ten out of eleven sectors closed in the green yesterday, and the S&P 500 is above its weekly open, suggesting a bullish sentiment. However, the economic calendar includes the CPI release on Friday, which could bring surprises and volatility, especially given the impact of energy costs on inflation. A recent Fed meeting revealed some members would have supported interest rate hikes, and JP Morgan estimates a 40% chance of no rate cuts this year, a shift from earlier expectations of quantitative easing ending and rates being cut. Geopolitical tensions persist, with boats blocked in the Strait of Hormuz. Despite ongoing conflicts, markets are not necessarily bearish; they tend to maintain their upward momentum. Goldman Sachs noted a "generational buying opportunity" in the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, which is not entirely encouraging as it might introduce doubts about future market direction. CNBC is often seen as providing misleading information to the public. From a macro perspective, the dollar index (DXY) shows a triple top in daily charts, suggesting neutralization. There's a gap to fill on the DXY chart from the ceasefire news, and a lower range could be revisited. The market has weathered high stress conditions remarkably well, with the VIX relatively low and not expected to return to 35-40. The S&P 500 is near its all-time high, with minimal decline. The amplitude of the rebound suggests the worst may be over, and even if the market remains hesitant, it might chop within a range, potentially drawn to the 7000 level due to option walls. Despite a bearish weekly structure for the NASDAQ, it has re-integrated its range, sitting in the middle, which is not an ideal entry point. The dollar index and VIX are no longer threatening, suggesting "big boys" are content. For day trading, option flow analysis indicates a very neutral session, likely confined between 675 and 680 on SPY, with little expected movement. Today is probably a "do nothing" day. The S&P 500 is often used to map interventions on the NASDAQ, and it's currently at the upper part of its theoretical range. A realistic target for big players is a return to 7000. In terms of sectors, significant money has flowed into tech, with Intel, SNDK, and AOI being major winners. There's a strong focus on memory stocks like SNDK, WDC, and STX, and also on Marvel. This suggests big investors are concentrating funds where momentum is strong rather than diversifying. The tech rally since March 2nd has been notable, partly linked to Nvidia and related companies like Light and Core (fiber optics). The crypto market is suffering from a lack of attention, as investor focus has shifted towards artificial intelligence (AI) projects, infrastructure, software, and startups. The number of crypto developers is at an all-time low, indicating dwindling interest. Tesla is experiencing a potential rebound after a prolonged bearish trend. While Elon Musk has historically influenced its stock price through announcements, the current context is different from previous unstoppable bullish trends. Tesla's chart now suggests a more horizontal, long-term movement, unlike its past performance. This serves as a warning against replaying past successes on stocks that have lost momentum or entered distribution phases, characterized by accelerating bearish momentum according to trend indicators. Microsoft, despite being a "Magnificent Seven" stock, gave back most of its gains yesterday, suggesting it might not sustain its upward momentum. Meta, another "Magnificent Seven" stock, has shown strong performance but is also range-bound, lacking clear direction. Investors often fail to recognize that stocks in bearish trends can remain so for extended periods, unlike bullish trends where capital grows. Horizontal consolidations offer less opportunity for growth and carry the same risk in a market downturn. The goal for investors should be to be in assets where capital has a high probability of growing, not just owning a specific name. Bitcoin is also exhibiting horizontal movement, suggesting it has exited its super-bearish dynamic but is currently in a relatively uninteresting phase. While it's close to crossing into a new trend setup, a cloud twist is needed to complete the early trend setup. Bitcoin's derivative market still shows open positions, with Binance having many open. The ideal buying zone is the bottom, but there isn't much push material. Okex hasn't fully taken profits on derivative positions, attempting something without price impact. The control point for the last few weeks remains the same, implying Bitcoin is within a value area, with the desire for the price to stay above $70,000 to maintain positive sentiment. Loaded open interests and naked POCs could be visited. Despite significant spot demand on Binance, there's been little price impact. Funding rates are pessimistic (negative on Binance and Hyperliquid), indicating that while people are bearish on Bitcoin, some spot buying pressure could explain the negative funding and be a good sign for price continuation, though not yet reflected in the chart. Crypto is currently not the best market to trade. Hype (HYPERLIQUID) is experiencing significant hype, with figures like Arthur Hayes promoting it. However, such endorsements often serve personal interests, and the price is caught between extremes, possibly indicating an exhausted market. Traditional markets, especially those with clear bullish trends, are currently more attractive for investment than speculative crypto plays. Tao, another popular token, is also range-bound despite efforts by its promoters, who previously orchestrated the Solana pump and dump. If they can push Tao out of its range, it could see significant gains. The overall analysis suggests a cautious approach, especially towards popular plays which can be dangerous. For those interested in learning trading or investing, Alpha Team offers resources. The CPI report tomorrow is a key event to watch.