New Glenn's First Failure - What Do We Know?

This video discusses the third flight of Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket, which was intended to carry a commercial customer, A Space Mobile, into low Earth orbit. This flight was significant as it was the first time New Glenn was tasked with delivering a payload to LEO, a seemingly simpler trajectory compared to previous missions that sent probes to deep space or medium Earth orbit. The rocket's first two flights had been remarkably successful, defying expectations for new rocket debuts by achieving their target orbits and even successfully landing and refurbishing the booster, which involved replacing all seven engines. The A Space Mobile payload, a 5-ton Bluebird satellite, was designed to unfold into the largest unclassified phased array antenna in orbit and was meant to provide cell phone service. The target orbit was a 49-degree inclination at an altitude of approximately 480 km. Given New Glenn's 45-ton payload capacity to LEO, this 5-ton payload should have been well within its capabilities, suggesting A Space Mobile likely secured a favorable launch price while Blue Origin aimed to further test its rocket and build market confidence. However, the mission encountered a problem, and the payload did not reach its intended orbit, leading to its expected loss. The video delves into the complexities of the launch trajectory, noting that Blue Origin appeared to be taking a cautious approach. For instance, the second stage pitched its nose upwards after separation, resulting in a flatter trajectory for the booster. This maneuver likely aimed to improve booster landing accuracy on the recovery barge and reduce stress on the booster, aligning with Blue Origin's focus on mastering booster recovery and reuse. Another strategic choice was the launch azimuth. To achieve the 49-degree inclination orbit, a direct northward trajectory would typically be used. However, potential weather issues in the North Atlantic and avoiding Bahamian airspace may have led them to launch on a more southerly trajectory. This "dog leg" maneuver required the second stage to make a significant turn southward, which would have delivered the payload to a parking orbit with a 36-degree inclination. The booster's recovery was captured by NASA's WB57 aircraft, showcasing its supersonic descent and the successful landing on the recovery barge "Jaclyn." Jeff Bezos later shared footage of this impressive recovery, highlighting Blue Origin's rapid progress in achieving booster recovery and reuse, a feat that took SpaceX considerable time with the Falcon 9. The video also notes that Blue Origin appears to be building more second stages, anticipating higher usage rates compared to first stages. The crux of the mission failure occurred during the second stage's operation. After achieving a parking orbit, the second stage was supposed to relight its engine to circularize the orbit and adjust its inclination. However, this burn did not happen as expected. Blue Origin eventually announced an "off-nominal orbit" for the payload. Initially, the exact nature of the problem was unclear, but it was understood that the payload had ion thrusters for orbital corrections. A Space Mobile later confirmed that the payload would be de-orbited, indicating it was not in a sufficiently high orbit. Subsequent orbital data provided by Space Force revealed that the payload had managed to raise its orbit by about half and make approximately half of the required inclination change, using about 1 km/s of delta-v. This suggested that the second stage engines had been relit, but a problem arose partway through the burn. The specific orbital parameters were reported as 265x485 km at 43 degrees, falling short of the 49-degree target. Further information emerged that during the orbit-raising burn, one of the two BE-3U-U engines on the second stage did not perform as expected, leading to an underperformance and the mission's failure to achieve the target orbit. This engine issue raises several questions: why didn't the second stage switch to single-engine mode if it had two engines? Was there a catastrophic failure that disabled both engines? Or did Blue Origin intentionally abort the burn to prevent potential debris creation, choosing to de-orbit the second stage as a precautionary measure? A significant concern is the status of the second stage itself. As of the video's recording, Space Force had only issued orbital elements for one object, leaving uncertainty about whether the second stage remained in orbit. The second stage is substantial, comparable in size to the Long March 5B core stage, which has had multiple uncontrolled re-entries. If the second stage is still in orbit, there are concerns about its potential uncontrolled re-entry and whether Blue Origin has safely vented any remaining propellant. The failure, classified as a mishap by the FAA, will likely delay future New Glenn launches until the issue is resolved. This could have implications for NASA's Artemis program, which relies on New Glenn for future refueling missions. Despite the setback for A Space Mobile, they are insured and will likely pursue future launches with other providers. For Blue Origin, the immediate priority is to identify and rectify the engine problem to ensure future mission success and maintain confidence in their launch vehicle. The hope is to see New Glenn flying again this year.