Bitcoin : La fin du marché baissier ?

This week's market analysis brings a significant signal that offers considerable hope for the crypto sphere, potentially pulling BTC and Ethereum out of a bearish market slump and reigniting a strong upward dynamic for this asset class, which has been largely neglected since summer 2025. If this trend holds over the next two to three weeks, we could finally be out of the woods in the crypto market, which is excellent news. In the second part of this analysis, we will discuss commodities, noting that despite a short-term reprieve in the US-Iran conflict, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, pressure on oil remains intense. The situation with oil is described as absolutely explosive and historical, occurring once every ten years, with no significant change yet. This leads to the emergence of a new phenomenon dubbed "TATA," standing for "Trump Always Tries Again," following the previous "TACO" (Trump Always Chickens Out). We will observe how persistently Trump applies pressure to Iran and how Iran, in turn, responds by closing and reopening the strait, impacting the energy market. Regarding the crypto market, a major development this week is the recovery of a key pivot point, indicating a potential shift back into a range market. We have reclaimed a resistance level that could become a support. If BTC can fluctuate for a few weeks, using this level as support, we could transition from a bearish market to a range market. A range market, in this context, holds a potential upside of approximately 60%, without necessarily signifying a bull market. For a true bull market, from our perspective, a large "cup and handle" pattern followed by a break above historical highs would be required. While we are not there yet, this week's developments are extremely positive, suggesting a shift in momentum. We hope this marks the end of the bearish pressure on crypto markets and that we have witnessed the bottom of this downward wave. Looking at Ethereum, it remains within a very long-term chartist triangle. It appears to be forming a bottom within this triangle and is starting to move towards its upper boundary. Ripple, on the other hand, is still consolidating in a smaller bearish trend continuation triangle. However, if BTC and Ethereum rebound strongly, this downward wave for Ripple could potentially be curtailed. These are genuinely good news for the week, as the crypto market had been bogged down with staggering downside potential. This week, we might have saved the day and could be heading back into a range market. Turning to gold, against the US dollar, it has seen three consecutive weeks of gains, with a potential bottom identified. The current logic suggests we are still in a bull market, undergoing a consolidation phase after a significant rally. This consolidation might last several months, possibly until late summer 2026 or even longer, as September typically sees upward cyclical phenomena for gold. The situation for gold against the Euro is similar, establishing a volatile range—a consolidation within a larger bull market. This range is expected to stabilize and contract volatility before a new direction emerges. Given the overall bullish market, we hope for a new break to the north, leading to a new impulsive wave towards late 2026 and 2027, signifying another strong uptrend for gold. Moving on to commodities, represented by the DBC ETF, this week showed a slight dip, but it's essentially a minor consolidation within a small triangle—a continuation pattern. This type of pattern is often explosive, mirroring a previous occurrence. From our perspective, commodities remain oriented towards an impressive and strong impulsive wave. This doesn't guarantee a specific outcome, but if new highs are reached, an extraordinary potential is unleashed within an unusual context. The current pattern maintains this positive asymmetry and potential for wealth creation. Regarding oil, it has declined this week, operating within a volatile range. A triangle pattern appears to be forming on the weekly chart, suggesting a potential second low after a previous one, followed by stabilization. This indicates we are at the beginning of a potentially explosive movement, explaining the "TATA" phenomenon. Oil remains in an explosive situation as long as it stays above this range, currently consolidating within a trend continuation triangle. For this continuation triangle pattern to be invalidated, oil would need to fall back into the previous range. Before analyzing the SP500 and US indices, a quick recap of the video from two weeks ago, specifically March 28th, where two potential scenarios for stock markets were presented. Scenario one involved an entrenched war, leading to a massive gold rally, significant inflation, and the Fed raising rates less than inflation, thus boosting gold due to negative real interest rates. Scenario two, which materialized, was a massive short squeeze in tech stocks. At that time, Wall Street saw a record number of institutional and hedge funds shorting stocks. In a "TACO" scenario (Trump quickly withdrawing), the market rebound would be amplified by these short covering purchases, leading to a short squeeze. This is precisely what happened. However, scenario two, being a short-term trade, does not invalidate scenario one, as medium-to-long-term tensions between the West and the Middle East persist. The new "TATA" term ("Trump Always Tries Again") reflects this, where Trump applies pressure, withdraws, then tries again, as seen with customs tariffs. In a war context, this creates high tensions, potentially leading to repeated closures and openings of the Strait of Hormuz during negotiation strategies. While Trump is known as a skilled negotiator, conducting negotiations during wartime risks missile exchanges and ultra-inflationary pressures globally. Therefore, the decade-long trade on gold remains in place as a medium-to-long-term strategy, while the tech stock short squeeze was a short-term trade that unfolded as predicted. Analyzing US equity markets, this week saw new highs, putting us back into a potential bull market from a technical analysis perspective, transitioning from a low-volatility range market to a volatile market with significant corrections and new highs. Stability above this pivot is crucial for clearer visibility. As a short squeeze amplifies volatility, this initial rebound could be a large consolidation phase. We will monitor this in the coming weeks; if levels hold and there's no return to the range, we could consider a bull market return. For now, a defensive stance is maintained through April for our portfolio. The Nasdaq shows an identical situation, with the "TACO effect" (Trump showing muscle then withdrawing) leading to new historical highs. The next two to three weeks will tell if this bull run is truly re-established. In the European market, the Dax is rebounding towards the top of its range. While a previous strong uptrend channel was breached, we need to see if momentum can be regained or if lateral consolidation will continue. In any case, a severe correction leading to a bear market has been avoided so far. The French CAC 40 also saw a strong rebound over three weeks. This market is in a volatile consolidation phase within a larger bull market, though its ascent speed is less vertical than the Dax. The underlying trend in the European market remains bullish. Finally, an update on the Alweazer Impulsion portfolio: it is currently in an ultra-defensive position, stabilizing since April. This strategy is based on cyclical dynamics to protect the portfolio, not on macro or fundamental predictions. The goal is to expose the portfolio when market conditions are healthy and likely to persist for several months. While it might shift to buying positions in actions by the end of April, it is currently ultra-defensive. Since its real-time launch, it has shown strong performance. Information on real-time and advance positions, with monthly portfolio updates and historical performance, is available via a link in the description. This includes backtested performance, drawdowns during crises, and access to two valuable conferences.