SHOCKING LESSONS: We have 10 Days Left [Rick Rule / Julia La Roche]

Rick Rule, a commodities expert, suggests the oil market is on the verge of collapse, potentially within five to seven days, though it could take longer. This could trigger an economic shock. He also highlights concerns within a specific ETF sector, alongside discussing gold and uranium. Rule saves in gold, speculates in silver, and selectively invests in oil and uranium. He notes gold has compounded 9% since 2000, though the actual figure is closer to 11%. He views public oil quotes as an "illusion of speculation" from the futures market, heavily influenced by options traders and geopolitical events. He anticipates a significant shock, stating de-escalation is unlikely and referencing the "nacho" scenario where the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. He describes oil attacks as attacks on the consumer, a view that may underestimate the impact of artificial intelligence on the stock market and GDP. The speaker points out that the International Energy Association (IEA) mandates a 90-day strategic oil buffer for member countries like those in Europe and the United States, which would mitigate oil shocks. However, non-members in Asia, such as Sri Lanka, lack such buffers, risking shortages, especially with ongoing Strait of Hormuz tensions. The speaker personally believes Iran is delaying a resolution to pursue nuclear weapons, a "left tail risk." Rule is a strong advocate for investing in physical uranium, predicting a "no-brainer nuclear renaissance" leading to a multi-year bull market. The speaker agrees, linking deglobalization to re-weaponization, where fewer trusting allies prompt more countries to seek nuclear capabilities for defense. Examples include Ukraine's regret over giving up its nukes and North Korea's leverage from its nuclear program. The speaker believes countries will build up nuclear stockpiles, using both peaceful energy enrichment and the byproducts for weapons. For uranium exposure, Rule favors physical uranium, suggesting SRUUF (a physical uranium play) and KAP (a Kazakhstan-based company listed on the London Stock Exchange that produces 20-25% of the world's uranium). Cameco (CCJ), a Canadian company and one of the largest publicly traded uranium companies, is also mentioned. However, the speaker finds CCJ expensive, noting its high expenses and a 3.58 PEG ratio, suggesting much of the uranium hype is already priced in, despite the likelihood of nuclear proliferation. Rule's assertion that the US dollar lost 75% of its purchasing power in the 1970s and will again is challenged. The speaker clarifies the dollar lost 54% in the 1970s and achieving a 75% loss in the next decade would require 14.8% compounded annual inflation. While acknowledging high inflation and gold's role in maintaining purchasing power, the speaker believes gold's momentum run is largely over, anticipating the Fed will print less money than expected, tempering gold rallies. The speaker prefers real estate for maintaining purchasing power. Regarding gold, Rule notes it's a poor short-term war hedge, supported by a 2013 NBER paper, but an excellent long-term tool for purchasing power. The speaker agrees, recalling that geopolitical issues often present "buy the dip" opportunities in the stock market. Rule's primary concern beyond oil is junk ETFs, which he believes could be "crushed" by a dump in liquidity. These private credit-style ETFs, when dumped, force bankers to sell underlying assets, creating wide spreads and negatively impacting companies reliant on that capital, especially with higher interest rates. The speaker agrees with this risk, though he disagrees with the prospect of more rate hikes, believing the Fed will "chill." The speaker concludes that Rule's video was good, but he overstates the oil shock, citing strategic buffers. He agrees with Rule on uranium but is concerned about overpricing.