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Today, I will discuss a beautiful story: the Wall Street Turtles. I will compare Alpha Zen to the Wall Street Turtles and explain how they inspired me. The main question we will address is whether individuals can beat the markets and outperform some of the best professionals.
This story revolves around two legendary traders, Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt, a mathematician. They debated whether trading is an innate talent or a learned skill. Richard Dennis believed ordinary people could be trained to become successful traders, while Eckhardt thought great traders possessed a unique quality. They made a bet: they would train novices with no financial background and test if they could become legendary traders.
They recruited beginners, people completely unrelated to finance, and taught them a systematic, almost automated, method over just two weeks. This method involved precise entry and exit rules that trainees had to follow strictly. They provided real money for testing and later for actual trading, aiming to measure if these novice traders could indeed beat the markets.
This idea was revolutionary and remains relevant today. Many people still argue that individuals have no chance against the markets, and academic theories often emphasize market efficiency, suggesting it's impossible to predict market movements or beat them. While financial theory has evolved to acknowledge market inefficiencies, anomalies, and predictability—such as momentum, where past market trends can predict future movements—it's surprising how long academic research took to recognize the existence of trends, a concept discussed in technical analysis for centuries by figures like Charles Dow and Jesse Livermore.
During my university studies, market efficiency was a dominant topic, with no mention of psychology, momentum, or psychological biases. I found this absurd, having read books like "Market Wizards" that highlighted these very aspects. There was a clear disconnect between academic theory and market reality, a discourse that unfortunately persists today. Financial professionals often perpetuate the idea that individuals cannot succeed, encouraging reliance on their services.
However, the democratization of ETFs has shifted this narrative. Since 2016, I have advocated for passive management, demonstrating that simply buying an ETF can outperform 96% of active fund managers. Despite this evidence, the notion that individuals cannot beat professionals remains prevalent. Now, with passive management gaining traction, the new argument is that while passive investing is good, it's impossible to outperform the markets themselves.
Richard Dennis's idea was considered audacious in a closed Wall Street world dominated by professionals and market geniuses. He aimed to prove that with a clear method, risk management, and strict discipline, novices could achieve exceptional results. His real question wasn't just about learning to trade but whether a well-trained individual could beat the markets.
The Turtles' method was very simple and systematic, focusing on trend following without economic forecasts or fundamental analysis. It involved precise entry and exit rules, a stop-loss, and a trailing stop. Risk management was also straightforward: calculated risk sizing, controlled exposure, and absolute discipline in applying the system without modification.
The results were astonishing. Within a few years, the Turtles reportedly generated over $175 million in the 1980s, and several went on to become renowned hedge fund managers. This experiment proved that beginners, with just two weeks of training and strict adherence to a robust, simple method, could achieve extraordinary results. It also demonstrated that markets are not exclusively for an elite few.
The true secret wasn't the system itself, which Dennis said was simple enough to be published in a newspaper but few would apply. The real challenge lies in execution. Everyone might know what to do, like following momentum, but the difficulty is in actually doing it, especially when fear, panic, or external noise from "experts" suggest otherwise. Very few people consistently apply a method in practice.
Curtis Faith, one of the most famous Turtle traders, exemplified this. Despite being the youngest, least experienced, and least impressive, he achieved the best results by simply applying the system "to the letter." His peers, who couldn't understand his success, asked if he had special signals or an exclusive approach from Dennis. Faith explained he just followed the method precisely, without ego or improvisation. This highlights why two people using the same method can have different outcomes.
Success factors include:
1. **Patience:** As seen with the DOCN stock, which initially corrected by 20% after purchase. Many students questioned holding it, but those who remained patient saw it rise by 109%, achieving an 83% gain from the entry point. Panicking and selling would have led to missing substantial gains.
2. **Discipline:** Following the rules consistently.
3. **No Ego:** Not improvising or deviating from the method.
4. **Accepting Losses:** Understanding that losses are part of the game.
5. **Consistency:** Sticking to the system without frequent changes.
6. **Mindset:** Behavior and psychological resilience are crucial, even more than the system itself.
My Alpha Zen approach draws parallels with the Turtles. I observed that many students, despite their intelligence and professional success, lacked the time or emotional fortitude to consistently apply trading methods. They would be swayed by fear or emotions. My goal with Alpha Zen was to provide a "Turtles-like" experience. I don't give them complex formulas, but I explain the method's logic.
Crucially, I created a real-time, transparent portfolio, something unprecedented in the French-speaking world. I show all positions, gains, and losses daily, demonstrating what I do. This transparency combats the "bullshit" often found in finance. More importantly, I focus heavily on mindset in a Telegram group, constantly reinforcing the importance of not panicking, accepting volatility, and sticking to the method. My aim is that even if Alpha Zen ceases to exist, students will have developed the right mindset to navigate markets independently.
There's a prevailing narrative that technical analysis is frivolous, and momentum is dangerous. Yet, Alpha Zen's real-world results challenge this. Our students, ordinary individuals, have outperformed professionals. A survey of my students showed that 55% achieved over 20% returns, and 80% achieved over 15% returns year-to-date. This significantly outperforms major indices like the NASDAQ and many professional hedge funds.
For instance, comparing Alpha Zen's performance to top hedge funds in Q1 2026, while some, like Pierre Andurand, achieved 31%, others like Point72 and Citadel were at 3.8% and 2.9% respectively. Even Andurand, despite his initial success, lost 52% in two weeks due to leveraged commodity bets, ending down 37% year-to-date. This highlights the risk even top professionals face. Our students' consistent performance, validated by hundreds of votes, demonstrates that disciplined individuals can achieve superior results.
This doesn't mean everyone will get rich, or that Alpha Zen will always outperform, or that there won't be drawdowns. But it proves that, contrary to popular belief, markets are not overly complicated, and you don't need a Harvard degree or Goldman Sachs experience to succeed. These institutions don't necessarily provide superior knowledge; they often hide behind their prestige. Our figures prove this; they are concrete, not invented.
The biggest challenge in markets is psychology, not the method itself. The momentum method I teach works, but the emotional aspect—panic, stress, listening to gurus—is the hardest. By showing my real portfolio and maintaining composure even during personal hardship, I aim to instill this resilience in students.
Peter Lynch, another legendary investor, understood that individuals can beat Wall Street due to their freedom and flexibility, unlike large funds. Ironically, despite his fund's 29% annual return over 13 years, most of his investors lost money because they bought high and sold low, illustrating the psychological pitfalls.
A minority, perhaps 1-5%, can achieve significant results by adhering to a method, managing risk, eliminating ego, and applying the methodology strictly. This is what Alpha Zen aims to prove: a simple, quantitative, systematic, disciplined, and transparent approach based on data and scientific anomalies can work.
Looking at Alpha Zen's historical performance since 2007 (almost 20 years), the average annual return is 24.74%, with a 19% drawdown and a 47% success probability. The average gain-to-loss ratio is 3.62. Even during major crises like the 2008 financial crisis, while the NASDAQ collapsed, Alpha Zen remained slightly positive and recovered much faster. The NASDAQ took 16 years (until 2016) to recover from the dot-com bubble, while Alpha Zen recovered in 5 years.
Extending the backtest to 1995, the performance remains consistent at 23.79% per year, though the drawdown increases to 41% due to the dot-com bubble. Even then, our portfolio recovered significantly faster than the NASDAQ. We have also tested the SP500 since 1950 with excellent results.
While there will be periods of losses and drawdowns, our long-term approach significantly outperforms indices. The claim that six months or a year is insufficient to judge performance is why we have 20-30 years of backtested data. For example, between 2000 and 2015, while the NASDAQ barely broke even after 15 years, Alpha Zen grew from $300,000 to $2 million.
The core lessons from the Turtles and Alpha Zen are:
1. You don't need to be a math genius; anyone can succeed.
2. Curtis Faith showed that applying rules to the letter makes all the difference.
3. Peter Lynch recognized that individuals have an advantage over large funds due to flexibility.
4. Alpha Zen's public survey of students confirms these results.
In conclusion, method beats emotion, discipline beats ego, and a system beats improvisation. Yes, individuals can beat the markets, but it's challenging and requires a clear method, discipline, serious risk management, endurance, and the ability to absorb losses.
My aim with Alpha Zen isn't to revolutionize but to guide students through market psychology. In previous groups, I observed constant panic and stress. I realized that a group for open discussion often led to more anxiety and "stupid questions." So, I created a group where I focus on mindset, show my portfolio, but limit open exchanges to prevent panic and stress. I refuse to endlessly repeat the same advice or be swayed by what "gurus" like Warren Buffett say. The method and results speak for themselves: 55% of students achieved over 20% returns, and 80% achieved over 15% year-to-date.
So, my answer is yes: a disciplined, well-trained individual with a clear method, who ignores market noise and incompetent "experts," can achieve what many deem impossible. You don't need to replace passive investing entirely; even allocating 20% of your portfolio to an Alpha Zen-like approach can yield returns comparable to 100% in an ETF, due to compounding. Our long-term performance shows a 10x difference compared to the NASDAQ.
Don't be impressed by those who boast about their elite education or professional titles without showing concrete results. True success lies in what you actually achieve. Do not let condescending "experts" diminish your potential.