Tout monte ! Le retour de l'argent "facile" en bourse...?

The speaker begins by noting an unusual market situation where everything is rising simultaneously: U.S. equities are in a bull market, crypto markets are becoming attractive again, and commodity markets are explosive, with oil in a market rocket situation and the DBC commodity ETF reaching new highs. While such short-term correlations can lead to rapid and strong gains, they are not sustainable long-term. The speaker will share their mental image for this positive correlation across asset classes, suggesting that one will eventually outperform the others, but it will be a temporary event, one cycle overlapping another. The speaker also announces a two-week family vacation, which may interrupt the Saturday video schedule, but confirms that arbitrage trades for their All-Weather Impulse portfolio will be communicated next Friday. Analyzing Bitcoin (BTC), the speaker states it's in a similar situation to the previous week, moving from a bear market to a range market. As long as a key resistance level becomes support, it remains a range market. To enter a bull market, BTC would need to break all-time highs (ATHs), which is currently far off. However, re-entering a range market is positive for the coming months. The invalidation scenario for the range market would be a drop below the current level, indicating a contraction of liquidity. The speaker highlights that the U.S. market, discussed later, is showing very positive signs, aligning with investors regaining appetite for risk and potentially returning to crypto markets in the coming months. The current scenario anticipated is a rebound from the bottom of the range to the top, which could then define a bull market continuation pattern, specifically a "cup and handle" formation, though this is not yet present. For XRP, the speaker notes it's in a small bearish continuation pattern, a triangle within a much larger chartist triangle. While the potential for decline is limited within this larger figure, the speaker acknowledges the high volatility of crypto assets, where an 80% range is possible. A true bear market would involve breaking below the massive chartist triangle and staying there for an extended period, which is not the current situation. The large triangle maintains positive asymmetry for potential upside. If XRP reaches support within this triangle, it would be an interesting area for dollar-cost averaging (DCA), and a break of ATHs would be ideal for playing an impulsive move. Ethereum (ETH) is also in a large chartist triangle and currently at support. The speaker believes BTC will dictate the trend; if BTC rebounds within its range, ETH will likely follow, moving towards the top of its triangle, which could lead to a true range market and hope for a new bull market possibly by late 2026. The oil market remains explosive. Following the COVID-19 lockdowns, oil experienced a strong bullish leg, followed by a significant consolidation with contracting volatility, and then an "astronomical" breakout, catalyzed by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. Currently, oil is forming a "market rocket" type triangle, representing the first consolidation after a large base breakout. This week saw a rebound. The speaker suggests a second explosive impulse wave could be coming for oil if this triangle breaks upwards. Despite media narratives about the end of conflicts, energy price tensions are not indicating a reversal to the downside; if the triangle breaks upwards, the situation could worsen. The speaker sees a positive asymmetry, a potential "positive wealth accident" for oil in the second half of 2026. Moving to the DBC, a commodity index, it has reached new historical highs this week, breaking a small continuation triangle. This break could signal the start of a new impulsive wave lasting several weeks. Since the COVID-19 crisis, commodities have shifted from a bear market to a new bullish cycle. After a significant 200% wave that needed digestion, a new bull run began in January 2026. Any consolidations encountered are likely continuation patterns until the movement becomes parabolic and then breaks to the downside, signaling the end of the commodity cycle. Currently, it's in an "envolement" phase. The speaker's long-term narrative, unchanged for months, is that the market has shifted from a deflationary cycle with decreasing interest rates (1980s-2020) to a new secular inflationary cycle of interest rate normalization. Interest rates are expected to rise, consolidate, and then rise again, with rate cuts acting as consolidations within a larger bull market of rising rates. This normalization aims to correct the excessive decline in interest rates, which even turned negative at the end of the previous cycle. Analyzing the dollar, it remains within a large upward channel, currently at the bottom, potentially forming a double bottom. This week, it stabilized. The speaker anticipates an "explosive cocktail" for a potential dollar bull run against a basket of currencies in the coming quarters, as long as the long-term upward channel and horizontal support hold. A break below this level would indicate a paradigm shift for the dollar. The Euro/Dollar pair is in a similar reversal pattern, having repeatedly tested a support level. If this support breaks, it could lead to a strong correction for the Euro against the Dollar. For gold, priced in U.S. dollars, it is in a bullish cycle that began in March 2024, currently digesting a near-parabolic rise. The speaker is watching to see if a "cup and handle" pattern with contracting volatility and a subsequent breakout will lead to a new multi-quarter bull run, or if the current bull run is over, indicated by a break below the trendline. The speaker favors the former, remaining optimistic about a bull market continuation. Gold priced in Euros shows a similar bullish trend, potentially forming a large multi-month chartist triangle that could lead to a new bull market if it breaks upwards. Currently, gold is in a sideways consolidation within a bull market. The S&P 500 has had another week of gains, reaching new historical highs. This validates the previous week's breakout, indicating a new bull market for the SP500. On a monthly scale, the long-term image is an enormous upward channel, reflecting the momentum since the 2008 subprime crisis. The top of this channel is now in sight. Reaching the top would signify overheating, and breaking it could lead to a speculative bubble similar to the tech bubble of 1998-2000, driven by AI-related stocks and a massive catch-up in inflation and margins across the global economy. This short-term thesis suggests very high gains in 2026-2027 in a "climax run," followed by a return to reality. Monthly data shows the SP500 breaking out of a five-month range, with validation expected next week, potentially heading towards the top of its channel in the coming months. The Nasdaq shows a similar monthly outlook, with a breakout from its range expected to be confirmed by the end of April, signaling a continuation towards the top of its channel, potentially yielding 15-20% gains. Weekly data confirms a new bull market, with this week's strong gains validating the previous week's signal, which the speaker initially thought might just be a short squeeze. This suggests a new bull market has started with a strong catalyst, leading to a potential new upward leg for U.S. indices by the end of 2026. For the European market, the CAC 40 remains in a beautiful upward trend channel, experiencing volatility since the Trump-Iran conflict. It is expected to reach resistance and then lateralize before potentially resuming its upward charge towards the top of the channel. While the U.S. is in a bull run, Europe, or at least the CAC 40, is in a range, potentially with a few months of sideways movement before new highs. The German Dax index shows the same situation, with a "taco effect" (V-shape) and a potential ping-pong at resistance. If U.S. markets verticalize, European markets are likely to break new historical highs and regain their upward trend, forming an upward channel with only a temporary downward excess. U.S. markets, particularly the Nasdaq and SP500, are currently driving developed economies upwards, which remains very positive. Finally, the speaker provides an update on their All-Weather Impulse portfolio for 2026. It saw a strong boost in January, then stabilized during the Iran crisis on defensive positions. Given the potential bull market in the U.S., the portfolio may be re-exposed to more lucrative asset classes starting next Friday. The new arbitrage will occur on Friday, before the U.S. market opens, and new positions will be communicated. For those interested in copying these positions, the speaker reminds them about the All-Weather Impulse service, linked in the video description, which provides real-time access to the managed portfolio and even advance notice of trades. The page also features portfolio performance updates for April and two important conferences explaining the portfolio's philosophy, creation, reliance on structural market anomalies, volatility management, and why most investors misuse volatility. These conferences are deemed vital for surviving and eventually thriving in financial markets.