จับสัญญาณ ‘ค่าครองชีพ’ คนไทยพุ่ง พบธุรกิจกว่า 70% จ่อขึ้นราคาสินค้า | Morning Wealth 30 เม.ย. 69

The program discusses the current economic climate, both domestically in Thailand and globally, focusing on interest rates, inflation, oil prices, and corporate performance. **Thailand's Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook** On Thursday, April 30, 2026, Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to maintain the policy interest rate at 1%. This decision comes amidst concerns about inflation risks, although the central bank estimates that without fiscal stimulus, GDP growth for the year would only be 1.5%. A proposed stimulus package of 300 billion baht is expected to boost GDP by less than 1%. Dr. Donnakrathap, Assistant Secretary of the MPC, explained that the unanimous decision to keep interest rates at 1% reflects the committee's assessment that further rate cuts are unlikely. He noted that Thailand's interest rate is already quite low, among the lowest globally. While the interest rate hike cycle is believed to be over, future adjustments are not entirely ruled out, depending on evolving circumstances. The current GDP growth estimate for the next 1.5 years is 2.0%, which does not yet include the impact of government stimulus. The MPC is closely monitoring economic expansion and inflation development, particularly in light of the Middle East crisis, which poses risks to both growth and inflation. Dr. Don highlighted that while short-term inflation is a concern, the focus is on medium-term inflation (2-3 years). He anticipates a sharp rise in inflation this month, potentially exceeding the Bank of Thailand's 3% target, and remaining above it until early next year before easing. This contrasts with earlier concerns that inflation would not reach the target, which had led to previous rate cuts. Regarding consumer spending, March figures show it is still negative despite rising oil prices. However, the producer price index, as reported by the Ministry of Commerce, reached 6% in March, indicating that cost increases are being passed on. Consumers are expected to feel the impact more significantly from April, with overall inflation potentially exceeding 3%. Essential goods like fresh food and energy, as well as transportation and ready-to-eat meals, are seeing prices rise above 3%. The government's 300 billion baht stimulus package is expected to primarily boost consumption and investment, including schemes like co-payment and promoting electric vehicles. This could add 0.5% to 0.7% to GDP in 2026, though its effects might wane in 2027. The impact will depend on the proportion allocated to consumption versus investment, with investment being more beneficial for long-term economic restructuring, especially in reducing reliance on oil. The Thai baht's exchange rate has weakened, particularly after the war, a trend seen regionally. However, the MPC is not overly concerned, as the prior strength of the baht was considered excessive given economic fundamentals. While it has depreciated, it remains within a manageable range. **Public Spending and Household Debt** The Chamber of Commerce's data on spending for this year's Labor Day holiday reflects a slowdown in the Thai economy. Consumer spending has decreased, continuing a trend from the Songkran period. This is the first time in five years that Labor Day spending has shown a negative trend, with a 3% reduction, totaling approximately 2.1 billion baht. This indicates that people are tightening their belts due to economic concerns and rising energy prices. A survey of Thai workers in 2026, focusing on individuals earning up to 15,000 baht per month, revealed that over 90.8% of the workforce falls into this income bracket. While 36% of households have an average income of 15,000-30,000 baht per month, expenses have increased significantly. A majority (79.1%) have no savings, and only 20.9% save. Most expenses are on food, drinks, debt repayment, and living costs. Household debt remains high, affecting over 98% of households, with an average debt of nearly 500,000 baht (494,505 baht) per household, primarily for consumer goods, vehicles, and housing. The average monthly loan repayment is over 18,670 baht. This debt burden is expected to reduce spending by 50.6% in the coming months. **Global Economic Pressures: Oil Prices and Geopolitics** The conflict between the United States and Iran, despite two rounds of unsuccessful negotiations, continues to pose global economic risks, particularly concerning oil prices. The World Bank's Commodity Market Outlook forecasts a 24% average rise in energy prices this year, the highest since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Commodity prices, especially for natural gas and fertilizer, are expected to increase by an average of 16% and may take over two years to return to pre-war levels. Global oil supply has decreased by approximately 10 million barrels per day, a 10% reduction. Crude oil prices, which were around $60 per barrel at the end of last year, have surged to an average of $100-120 per barrel since the war began. The World Bank's baseline forecast, assuming an end to the conflict and a return to normal production, puts the average price at $86 per barrel for the year. However, if the situation escalates or supply disruptions persist, prices could average $115 per barrel. The increase in oil prices has a cascading effect, driving up natural gas and fertilizer prices. A 10% increase in oil prices due to geopolitical factors can boost gas prices by 7% and petrochemical prices by over 5%. Natural gas prices could take 11 months to peak, and fertilizer prices 12 months, remaining high for 1.5 to 2 years. Fertilizer prices are expected to rise by 31% this year, with urea levels up 60%, threatening future crop yields. **Impact on Thai Businesses and PTT's Role** The rising energy prices directly affect the operational costs of listed companies in Thailand, especially in the energy sector. Dr. Kongkrapan Inthra, CEO of PTT Public Company Limited, emphasized PTT's dual role: maintaining national energy stability and protecting shareholder interests. During crises, national security takes precedence over short-term profits. PTT has an emergency plan in place, leveraging its global trade network to manage imports efficiently. It has reduced its dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil from over 60% to 30% by diversifying sources to regions like the United States and West Africa. PTT is prepared to absorb price differences from higher-cost alternative sources. The company has sufficient crude oil contracts until June and is continuously procuring more. However, the volatile prices require PTT to allocate significant funds for margin calls in forward trading, estimated at 30 billion baht, with premiums around 600 million baht per month. The government is expected to help bear these costs to ensure continuous energy supply. Regarding the pricing of finished petroleum products, Dr. Kongkrapan explained that prices are based on the free market in Singapore, driven by supply and demand, not fabricated costs. Refinery profits, after accounting for crude oil costs, transportation, and premiums, are not significantly high. Thai Oil's distillation process, for example, yields only 30-35 satang profit per liter. While other Asian refineries are reducing capacity to mitigate risk, the entire PTT Group, including its petrochemical business, is operating at full capacity to prevent domestic shortages, despite losing money in some segments for the past 2-3 years. The government's policy to reduce refining margins to adjust diesel prices, initially by 2 baht, raises concerns about market distortion, dubbed "regulatory risk" by investor Dr. Niwes. While this is a short-term measure, it directly impacts refinery profits, potentially reducing them by 2 billion baht. PTT aims to communicate and ensure understanding among investors regarding these short-term impacts. PTT's diversified business portfolio, with upstream exploration and production (PTT EP) benefiting from rising oil and gas prices, helps offset the increased costs in downstream businesses like refining. This portfolio management supports long-term performance and helps PTT maintain national energy security. **US Federal Reserve and Future Investment Strategies** The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is increasingly divided on its monetary policy, particularly regarding interest rate adjustments. Four officials voted against the decision to maintain the policy interest rate at 3.5-3.75%, while three disagreed with signaling future easing. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his final press conference in that role, reiterated his intention to remain a member of the central bank's board of governors. Kevin Watch, expected to take over as Fed chairman, presents a different perspective. His framework suggests using a "trimmed mean" approach to inflation, which filters out extreme values, potentially leading to a lower inflation rate (around 2.3-3% compared to PCE at 3%). This could open the door for future interest rate reductions. Watch also emphasizes the strength of the US economy, particularly in AI investment, which is boosting productivity and improving the employment situation, further supporting the possibility of future rate cuts. A significant shift in Watch's approach is his likely preference for a smaller balance sheet, focusing more on interest rate premiums as the primary monetary policy tool rather than extensive balance sheet operations (QE/QT). The Fed's communication style under Watch is expected to change, with less "forward guidance" or explicit recommendations. This could lead to increased market volatility as investors find it harder to predict future policy moves. **Investment Strategy in a Volatile World** Given the global economic volatility, investors are advised to gradually increase exposure to risky assets. The US market is highlighted as a leader in AI, making it an attractive investment. The current valuation, combined with better-than-expected earnings reports from major tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft), supports a positive outlook for the US market. These companies are heavily investing in AI, driving significant growth despite increased costs. Emerging markets, particularly South Korea, are also favored due to their involvement in AI build-out and capital market reforms. The semiconductor industry, as an upstream business, directly benefits from AI-related capital expenditure. Another investment area is alternative energy. The high demand for data processing by AI, combined with high oil prices, drives the need for renewable energy sources. This sector offers an investment option for those seeking alternatives to traditional oil. For investors unsure about specific investments, a balanced fund with an active fund manager who can adjust allocations based on market situations is recommended. **Additional Information** SCG Chemical (SCGC) and PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) have signed a preliminary agreement to explore a joint venture in the olefin business in Thailand, aiming to create a regional leader in petrochemicals with global competitiveness. This venture seeks to leverage integrated infrastructure, improve management efficiency, strengthen downstream businesses with value-added products, and diversify product ranges. The study for this joint venture is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2069. The program concludes by reminding viewers of upcoming special segments, including an exclusive interview on ethanol production in Thailand and an investment strategy session for new-gen investors. It also promotes the Alpha Skill Summit and Expo 2026, an event focused on preparing children for the future, to be held at ICONSIAM from May 8-10.