Echec des négociations, Détroit d'Ormuz bloqué, Trump aggrave la situation ? - La Météo des Marchés

This week's market outlook, for Monday, is characterized by a lack of significant immediate catalysts, a sentiment the speaker humorously labels "Fuckery Monday." However, the weekend did bring developments concerning Bitcoin and geopolitical news, specifically the failed peace negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan, involving JDV. The approach taken was described as heavy-handed, which appears to have worsened the situation. This led to negative impacts on Bitcoin over the weekend, and stock indices experienced drops with early morning gaps that are now being filled. Last week was generally bullish, with a focus on semiconductors. Intel had a very strong week, and AMD neared its "orange" level. Broadcom (Avgo) and Marvel were also significant gainers, with Marvel showing particular strength and opening with a bullish gap. The technical narrative around AI remains strong, with Amazon also performing well. The speaker questions whether this momentum will continue this week. A point of caution is the overbought RSI, which, despite media warnings about potential reversals, is interpreted by the speaker as a sign of market strength. This is further supported by the fact that the market is not reacting negatively to the geopolitical news as it might have in the past. The market saw a rebound in oil over the weekend, influenced by Donald Trump's continuous weekend pronouncements. While news outlets might be highlighting a "brutal risk-off" environment driven by oil, the speaker argues this is a mischaracterization, more a lingering impression from past events rather than the current reality. The market's reaction to ongoing conflicts and news is now more muted. The dollar index showed no significant reaction to the failed negotiations, and the VIX, a measure of market volatility and fear, remains low compared to previous months, indicating a calm in market stress despite dire news reports. The speaker emphasizes that the market's true sentiment is reflected in the price action, with indices nearing all-time highs. The S&P 500 is approaching the psychological level of 7000, and the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz is considered to be largely behind, with the index only about 2% away from its all-time high. The tech sector has seen a strong rebound, and despite some sideways movement, there's no indication of a bearish reversal. The speaker notes the absence of trapped buyers, with more emphasis on trapped sellers or those who haven't yet entered the market. Fear, fueled by media narratives, is present in people's minds, but not reflected in the charts. Last week was marked by volatility, with news concerning the "taco trade" and Trump's stance on the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a significant return of capital to the Magnificent Seven stocks. Nvidia is lagging slightly in this rebound, which the speaker hopes will be short-lived. Google has shown a strong rebound, and Microsoft is also being watched for potential follow-through. The software sector is currently out of favor, but this could change, similar to how airline stocks rebounded after a period of being unpopular. The semiconductor and AI sectors remain strong, with Taiwan Semiconductor showing significant gains. The speaker reiterates the caution about the overbought RSI, emphasizing that it signifies market strength, not necessarily a shorting opportunity. For trading decisions, a confluence of factors, including structural changes and trend indicators, is preferred. A notable piece of news is Trump's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz for vessels engaging with Iran, a move reminiscent of past blockades but now initiated by the US. This, along with Trump's other pronouncements, contributes to a constant stream of "shenanigans." Turning to Bitcoin, the speaker observes that it had shown signs of a potential weekly structure change, but this was erased over the weekend due to the failed negotiations. The daily charts indicated that many traders were caught short, with negative funding rates and a slow, upward price action suggesting a potential breakout. However, open interest was heavily loaded, and the recent price drop resulted in the liquidation of approximately $1 billion in long positions. The speaker speculates that this liquidation might have cleared out highly leveraged traders. The question remains whether the remaining open interest represents shorts, given the shift in sentiment. If it does, it could set the stage for future liquidations of short positions. Bitcoin is currently trading within a range, and until a clear breakout occurs, its direction remains uncertain. Potential upside targets include the yearly open, the 200-day moving average, and the psychological 100,000 mark. The speaker concludes by promoting his "Alpha Team" trading education program, highlighting its comprehensive resources, training, support, news aggregation tools, and journaling features, all offered at a monthly subscription of €67 with a 30-day satisfaction guarantee. The aim is to make the offer so attractive that potential members feel foolish for not joining.