Google et Nvidia, 5000 milliards pour tous ? Des résultats extra !

Welcome to this Saturday edition of "The Architect's Archives," episode 4, for May 2, 2026, where we recap the week's financial news. Macro indicators show the Fed remaining restrictive, with interest rates held between 3.5% and 3.75%. This decision was highly divided amidst Middle East instability, pushing oil prices above $100. Oil is currently a critical market indicator, though the AI sector presents a fundamentally different perspective due to its rapid acceleration. While the economy shows resilience, inflation is becoming problematic, and the coming quarters will reveal how this plays out, potentially creating a dissonance between AI and other market sectors. Markets are currently pricing in a "higher for longer" rate scenario, with no anticipated rate cuts in 2026 and potential hikes if oil stays above $100 a barrel. Bonds are under pressure, and risk assets are sensitive to macro data, meaning cryptocurrencies remain highly data-dependent. Despite new all-time highs (ATHs) in supersets, Nasdaq, and S&P 500, Bitcoin is lagging far behind. US consumption remains robust, driven by massive investments in AI and data centers, with growth expected to exceed 2%, albeit with low probability if conditions worsen in the coming quarters. Geopolitically, rising oil prices fuel inflationary tensions and volatility in risk assets, including stocks. While NVIDIA might be considered less risky than a top 5000 altcoin, the market continues to favor AI growth, productivity, and CAPEX in cloud and data centers. Google, for instance, plans to surpass previous investment records, indicating a runaway investment trend in AI and data centers. This AI-driven economy is an economy within an economy, which is otherwise expected to slow down in 2026 and 2027. Regarding company results, the "Magnificent Seven" met expectations, especially NVIDIA and Google, with infrastructure spending remaining massive. Discretionary consumption is weak, and margins are compressed, posing risks for energy-dependent companies. Semiconductors and photonics are fully benefiting from this boom. In crypto, Bitcoin is awaiting better conditions. While not terrible, it's not encouraging for the short term, remaining dependent on broader market conditions. Bitcoin is struggling to break out of a difficult zone. ETF inflows have slowed after a very encouraging previous week that saw daily inflows of $300-500 million, occasionally nearing $1 billion. This week, inflows have moderated. Following the Fed's decision to maintain rates, there were some sell-offs. Kevin Warsch, a future Fed president, has expressed openness to digital assets, a positive sign. In decentralized finance, Aave successfully recovered funds via donations, covering more than what was lost in a DAO hack. Institutions favor Bitcoin, followed by AI infrastructure mixed with crypto, and the tokenization of real-world assets (RWAs). The crypto sector remains sensitive to dollar liquidity and stablecoins. Looking ahead, the transition from Powell to Warsch at the Fed will be crucial, particularly regarding policy credibility and independence from a potentially omnipresent Trump administration. Energy inflation and delayed rate cuts are putting pressure on growth stocks and bond yields. Exceptional CAPEX in AI continues despite potential slowdowns elsewhere. Markets are trying to anticipate whether AI can sustain exponential growth and investment. Companies are betting on a bright future for AI and exploding productivity, with some, like Elon Musk, even suggesting that AI will make work and financial worries obsolete in 20-25 years. This seems far-fetched, and only time will tell if this "radiant future" materializes or if it leads to disappointment, similar to the dot-com bubble. Bitcoin needs to hold $75,000 and break $80,000. Upcoming macro data includes CPI and PCE for inflation, US employment figures, oil prices, and 10-year Treasury yields. Technically, US oil is at $102.49 and Lukoil at $109.21. As long as oil remains above $100, systemic risks persist for markets, even as the tech sector thrives. This week, Eurostoxx 50 closed strongly in the green. The Nasdaq closed at an ATH of 27,710, and the S&P 500 at 7,230, near its ATH, having almost touched 7,300 this week. Oscillators are high, suggesting potential for another week or two of gains before corrections. The DXY dollar index has retreated slightly to 98.2, while the French CAC 40 holds between its 50 and 20-week moving averages. The World index (CW8) in euros is at €637, rising slower than the Nasdaq and S&P. A word of caution for new investors tempted to go "all-in" on the Nasdaq, especially with leverage, due to its recent performance. While Nasdaq has seen significant gains over the past five years, remember that it can also experience sharp declines of 30-50%, or even 80-85% during the dot-com bubble. Such volatility, especially with leverage, can wipe out investment theses. The current boom, fueled by post-COVID recovery and AI since 2022, has offered extraordinary entry points, but a return to reality is inevitable. We hope AI delivers on its revolutionary promise, otherwise, the correction will be severe. Gold has been consolidating for two weeks at $4,600 an ounce. A drop to the 50-week moving average at $4,100, aligned with the March 23, 2026 candle, is possible. Silver has been volatile, ranging between $70 and $76 this week. The total crypto market cap is hovering around the 20-week moving average, currently at $2.57 trillion. A break above could target $2.9-3 trillion; failure could see a return to $2-2.1 trillion by summer/autumn, or even lower, as some believe the crypto bear market isn't over. Bitcoin at $78,250. Analyzing monthly, quarterly, annual, and weekly timeframes, and comparing past cycles and ratios, suggests a potential final bottom between $35,000 and just under $60,000. While $35,000 would require a significant negative event similar to 2022, oscillators have reset, making a bottom around $60,000 (near the 200-week moving average) plausible. A 55% drop on Bitcoin might seem too good to be true for a bear market low. If conditions worsen by summer/autumn 2026, a bottom between $40,000 and $50