Bitcoin, ORO e IA Caen Juntos, ¿Por Qué? ¿Por XI? | José Luis Cava

Good morning from Madrid. We're addressing three key areas today. First, Microsoft's announcement of a 27% workforce reduction, or 60,000 layoffs under a "voluntary redundancy program," raises questions about AI's impact on jobs. Is AI destroying jobs? Which Microsoft departments are spared? And how will this affect Microsoft's AI investments and stock price, potentially accelerating its upward trend? AI is undoubtedly impacting the labor market through reorganizations and layoffs, starting with Xbox. Departments linked to commercial activity, data centers, AI infrastructure, and the cloud appear more resilient, at least in the short term. Microsoft could save an estimated $20 billion from these layoffs, especially considering lower salaries in India. This saving could finance part of its AI infrastructure investments, given their $40 billion CAPEX in the last quarter. Microsoft's third-quarter results are due soon, but revenue has grown faster than its workforce, suggesting a healthy company. The stock price has found support at 522.5 twice in October, and if it holds, it could target the 550-575 resistance zone, indicating a continued upward trend. Globally, the aggregate labor supply will likely be reduced over the next 10 years, with the initial impact of these 60,000 layoffs being slow, primarily affecting Washington state until August next year. However, the effect will spread to other industries, leading to job reductions and creating winners and losers. It's concerning that politicians, focused on pension payouts, aren't addressing this, or the need to invest in AI for future income, dismissing the short-term job destruction. Second, we examine the reported AI explosion in China, yet Chinese AI infrastructure and chip manufacturing stock prices have fallen by 44% since July, as seen in the STAR 50 index. This raises questions about a potential US AI bubble burst. Despite government participation in these companies ensuring funding, the decline is attributed to two factors: China's 10-year bond yield at 1.6% indicates nominal economic growth of 1.6%, implying deflation if real growth is 2%. Second, the Central Bank of China's balance sheet contraction since March has led to a lack of liquidity injection, causing sell-offs in AI stocks, gold, and affecting Bitcoin. Third, the simultaneous fall in AI stocks, gold, and Bitcoin, alongside Bitcoin's stagnation, prompts the question: why? The core issue is a short-term funding shortage, both in China, where liquidity injection is needed to combat deflation and raise wages, and in the US, where the government also needs massive funding for public debt renewal. This shortage is holding back prices. However, both nations need a crisis as an excuse to inject liquidity, which would ultimately favor Bitcoin and gold in the long run. Monetary debasement, at 8% annually in the US, combined with European and future Chinese liquidity injections, will continue to drive monetary inflation, even if AI increases productivity and reduces goods and services inflation. We must consider how to defend against these monetary aggressions.