Trump escalade dans la nuit : le pétrole flambe - La Météo des Marchés

The speaker begins by acknowledging that yesterday's market predictions were not perfectly aligned, but emphasizes the continuous effort to find surprising elements in the market. A key surprise discussed is the potential over-crowding in oil, leading to a small drop, despite strong rebounds in tech stocks like Nvidia (5% gain) and Google recently. This occurred while the VIX, a volatility index, was declining, indicating a curious divergence. Looking at the market in shorter timeframes, a de-escalation from 31 to 23 was observed, even without significant market improvements. The speaker notes that the market ultimately decides its own direction, irrespective of external conditions, citing instances where people missed rallies by assuming poor conditions would prevent growth. The idea was that despite a lack of de-escalation in news, a calm was emerging, potentially leading to a significant return on investment in tech, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" stocks. Such large movements suggest institutional investors or "big fish" are entering the market. The speaker had anticipated a potential gap up with good news over the long weekend due to Good Friday, when markets are closed. If investors hadn't entered before, they would miss out. However, this scenario did not unfold as expected. The speaker had also considered a return to a "long reload zone" for the market. While day trading attempts were made yesterday, leveraging a bullish session and a simultaneous breakout on the S&P 500, these were high-risk moves taken with smaller position sizes. For investors, the strategy should be to buy the first retracement of a potential "Womit" (a term not explicitly defined but seems to imply a strong upward move), rather than chasing the initial surge. However, pre-market activity today shows a significant downturn. The reason for this, as the speaker explains, is related to recent statements by Donald Trump. Instead of de-escalating tensions, Trump made comments about the duration of past wars, implying the current situation (presumably in Iran, though not explicitly stated as such) was still early. This "relativization of the war's duration" was poorly received by the market, which had been pricing in a potential "chicken out" scenario from Trump, anticipating a ceasefire or a short conflict. The market generally remains optimistic by default, but Trump's remarks shattered this optimism, leading to a market decline. The speaker notes that many of their long positions have given back gains, prompting a dilemma: cut positions to minimize damage (ideally at break-even) or hold them, given the strength of the underlying charts being traded. This decision needs to be made today, before the weekend. Examining specific stocks, Google, despite a significant retracement, is now offering a "dip" opportunity. However, Nvidia is presented as more concerning. After a 5% rebound that suggested health in the "Magnificent Seven," Nvidia had re-integrated into its trading range. This rebound had initially negated a "very ugly" chart showing a complex top structure (triple top on weekly, or a large double top on monthly). The current situation sees Nvidia falling back below this critical level, reminiscent of a "Mtop Montfli" on Bitcoin that had caused fear. The market is now in "extreme fear." If Nvidia fails to re-integrate into its range and closes below 165, confirming lower highs and lower lows, it would signal that rallies are for selling, leading to a further slide for Nvidia and potentially impacting broader markets due to its large capitalization. Regarding other market indicators, the speaker notes that oil is currently surging, contrary to previous expectations of it being a temporary phenomenon. The dollar index remains strong, exerting pressure around the 100-dollar mark. The "bells of the apocalypse" start ringing when the dollar firmly establishes itself in this high zone, as a strong dollar typically means risk-off positions, making dollar-denominated assets attractive. The VIX is also rising, indicating a persistent tense market, which is becoming the "new normal." This challenging market environment is characterized by numerous news events and surprises, potentially leading to a sustained bearish phase. The speaker questions whether it's worthwhile to attempt trades in this zone. While there have been clear bullish trends in the past two days, with short positions being closed, the overall confidence isn't high. There was still a lot of hedging yesterday, even with long positions entering. Sector-wise, consumer cyclical stocks, despite mixed performance from Tesla, show significant capital engagement. RH (Restoration Hardware, likely) is mentioned as a stock to watch. However, the overall sentiment is one of caution; "money is timid" right now. Being in cash or having cash reserves is advisable in case the situation deteriorates further. For those in oil, it's a "yolo" situation, but for others, going long exposes them to significant downside gaps if Trump makes further unexpected announcements regarding the Iran situation. The speaker concludes by acknowledging that some predictions might be less precise than others, but the aim is always to provide value. The segment ends with well wishes for Easter.