Double ATH sur les indices, Bitcoin à la traîne - La Météo des Marchés

The market is currently experiencing a strong "risk-on" sentiment, with many sectors showing green. This rally has rapidly erased losses incurred during the recent geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which had caused over a month of market stress and volatility. Volatility has now returned to very low levels, leading to a celebratory atmosphere with daily gains across the board. Key market drivers include Microsoft and Tesla, which have significantly boosted the overall market. Tesla saw a 7% rally, and Microsoft continues its strong performance. Nvidia has also broken out, although it's still consolidating. In terms of news, there's not much significant information, with ongoing discussions about Iran and a two-week ceasefire extension. The speaker notes that even when peace talks, like President Biden's trip to Pakistan, have failed, the markets have largely shrugged them off, focusing instead on capital inflow and upward momentum. The speed of the rebound is attributed to either an excessively bearish market or a massive short-covering by investment funds that had likely built up short positions due to a high VIX (volatility index). This could have led to a rapid and potentially historic upward move. The banking sector is performing well, and earnings reports are generally positive. However, there's a cautionary note about Jayden, who sold shares shortly after buying them before earnings, suggesting a lack of extreme confidence. The oil market has experienced significant volatility, with the speaker advising caution. While the immediate stress related to oil seems to be subsiding, the price is currently trading within a range, and the speaker prefers to avoid trading in the middle of such ranges, especially given the psychological levels around 92-82. Trading in smaller timeframes is recommended for oil, as the current phase is seen more as consolidation rather than a strong impulse. The S&P 500 has reached new all-time highs (ATHs). The speaker believes that 7000 is a significant psychological level and wouldn't be surprised if the market revisits it before settling into a new bullish leg, a potential dip, or a more serious correction. If the S&P 500 decisively breaks past 7000 and moves towards 7100, it would confirm a strong bullish trend. The Nasdaq, however, has not yet broken out to new ATHs, suggesting it might be lagging behind the S&P 500 or that one index has taken too much of a lead. For a sustained bullish trend, both indices need to be performing strongly and pushing higher. Several individual stocks are showing interesting rebounds. Spotify has seen a significant move. The speaker emphasizes that these are not investment recommendations and personally prefers buying at support levels, remaining cautious about very clean "W bottom" formations on daily charts, especially with large candles. They prefer an "up only" trajectory. Robinhood has also put in an interesting bottom, with potential for trading dips. This rebound was partly triggered by news that the margin limit of $25,000 has been changed, potentially allowing for more leverage. Netflix and Disney are also showing strength. The technology software sector (IGV) is showing signs of a bottom. Goldman Sachs has issued a positive outlook on software stocks, calling them oversold, which is seen as a significant indicator, though the speaker expresses surprise at such a "gift" from Goldman Sachs. The duration of this software rebound remains to be seen, with Adobe struggling and Zoom showing potential for an upward move. Microsoft, Netflix, and Disney are noted as strong performers. The speaker reiterates that with the S&P 500 reaching ATHs, the immediate fear factor has diminished, reassuring long-term investors to "hold." However, the speaker personally believes it's not the ideal time to buy, citing an existing gap that might be revisited. They also caution that rapid movements, while perceived as strong, can sometimes be less robust than slower, steadier gains. The current trading session has started in the red, with Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia showing slight declines. The S&P 500 is also showing weakness, suggesting a potential red session after several days of gains. Bitcoin, however, is struggling significantly, experiencing a sharp decline. This drop appears to be a reaction to news that Iran plans to be paid via Iranian banks. This news coincided with a dip in Bitcoin and the VIX. Bitcoin is trying to break out of its bottom but is facing difficulties. The speaker hopes for a weekly close within the candle's wick, which would be an encouraging sign for the following week. Current entry points are considered less than ideal, with many longs potentially entering at higher prices. Funding rates are low, and sentiment is weak, indicating a lack of belief in Bitcoin's upward potential. The speaker suggests a "bear trap" scenario for Bitcoin, where the market attempts to discourage long positions by creating doubt and forcing stop-losses higher, with the ultimate goal of accumulating short positions before a rally. This remains a speculative scenario. April, especially late April, is often a period for significant moves in the crypto market, and it remains to be seen how things unfold. The speaker concludes by stating they have no immediate trading intentions, are holding their existing positions, and will wait patiently. They are looking forward to tomorrow's market update and recommend Alpha Team for those interested in learning trading, highlighting their resources like the terminal, journal, coach, and comprehensive training programs.