Americans Working More, Owing More | Numbers Scream Ep. 16

This week's discussion focuses on new job statistics, the changing nature of weekend work, the surge in household debt, rising mortgage rates, and bankruptcy trends. Regarding new jobs, a headline figure of 178,000 new jobs was announced. However, it's noted that the government frequently revises down labor statistics, with February's numbers already revised downwards. Even with potential revisions to 125,000-133,000, this still represents a pickup in job creation. A significant portion of this increase, particularly in November-December, is attributed to seasonal hiring in delivery services and retail. Beyond seasonal fluctuations, a glimmer of hope is seen in healthcare, with 71,000 new jobs estimated in this sector, driven by the aging baby boomer population and their need for healthcare services, including nursing homes and retirement facilities. There's also a slight increase in manufacturing jobs, suggesting potential positive impacts from current presidential policies. This news is generally viewed as positive after a period of seasonal layoffs. Next, the topic of weekend work reveals a significant increase in productive hours. Compared to 2023, weekend work in 2025 shows a 43% increase in hours worked on Saturday, rising from 3 hours and 10 minutes to 4 hours and 37 minutes. This trend indicates that people are starting their Saturday work earlier, at around 7:11 AM in 2025 compared to 8:30 AM in 2023, often cutting loose by noon. Sunday statistics show a similar pattern, suggesting an expansion of the seven-day work week. The discussion then shifts to household debt, which has reached a new record of $18 trillion. This debt has been steadily increasing since the 2008 financial crisis and saw another bump during the COVID-19 pandemic. A significant driver of this increase is non-housing debt, particularly credit card debt, which stands at an all-time high of approximately $1.3 trillion. Credit card debt per person is almost $7,000, also an all-time high. Total housing debt is at an all-time high as well. While Americans are more indebted than ever, it's noted that part of this is exacerbated by the printing of money, which made dollars bigger without a proportional increase in wages. The hope is that inflation will eventually come down, allowing wages to catch up through raises, bonuses, or side hustles, enabling people to pay down this debt. It's highlighted that after the financial crisis, debt reduction was largely an illusion driven by foreclosures and decreasing home values, rather than actual debt repayment. Mortgage rates are another key point, having risen back up to 6.5% for a 30-year fixed rate. Data from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), sourced from Freddie Mac, shows that rates had previously declined from 7.2% to almost 6% but have since increased. The current rise is linked to the ongoing war, which drives oil prices, subsequently impacting inflation, the bond market, and ultimately mortgage rates. The hope is that this is a temporary spike, and that a resolution to the conflict would lead to a reversal of these trends, bringing down oil prices, inflation fears, and mortgage rates. Finally, bankruptcies are discussed, showing an increase of 14% year-over-year, although not as severe as historical peaks. Non-business bankruptcies, representing individuals, saw a significant dip during the COVID-19 pandemic due to moratoriums on student loan payments, evictions, and repossessions. However, following the lifting of these moratoriums, bankruptcies have been on the rise again. They were up 15% from 2023 to 2024, 11% from 2024 to 2025, and now approximately 14% in the first quarter of the current year. This increase is primarily driven by affordability issues for the American consumer, who faces rising costs. Business bankruptcies are also up since the lifting of COVID-19 moratoriums, exceeding 2020 levels. This indicates challenges for larger commercial businesses, not just small, corner-store operations. Despite these challenges, there's an ongoing shift in the labor base, with growth in sectors like data centers and AI, creating new jobs in areas like manufacturing and construction for these new industries. While the situation isn't entirely rosy, the jobs report offers glimmers of hope, with the expectation that a resolution to geopolitical conflicts could help stabilize financial indicators and improve the economic outlook for consumers.