🚨 Iran : Quelque chose de Massif se prépare sur Bitcoin

This summary covers a detailed analysis of a hypothetical geopolitical crisis in February 2026 and its immediate impact on the cryptocurrency market, specifically Bitcoin. **The Crisis of February 2026** On Saturday morning, February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive military operation against Iran, including coordinated strikes on Tehran. The operation resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Khamenei, in his bunker. Iran retaliated by firing 170 ballistic missiles at Israel and various U.S. bases across the Middle East, including those in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE. As traditional markets were closed over the weekend, Bitcoin became the only functional "pulse" for global markets. Initially, the reaction was one of pure panic. Algorithmic traders reacted to the news faster than humans, causing Bitcoin to drop below $63,000 within an hour. This flash crash liquidated $300 million in long positions and wiped out $128 billion in market capitalization. **The "Khamenei Pump" and Market Resilience** However, as rumors and eventual confirmation of Khamenei’s death circulated, Bitcoin experienced an unusual and violent "pump," surging to over $68,000. By Saturday evening, despite the ongoing rain of Tomahawk missiles and Iranian counter-strikes, Bitcoin ended the day in the green, up 1.8% at around $66,700. By Sunday, as Donald Trump announced continued strikes and oil prices opened high at $75 per barrel, Bitcoin remained relatively stable, trading between $66,000 and $67,000. When traditional markets opened on Monday, the Nasdaq suffered significantly, and Bitcoin followed it downward before stabilizing at $66,000. This timeline demonstrates that Bitcoin "digested" the reality of a major war within 72 hours—far faster than traditional equity markets. **Bitcoin: Risk Asset or Safe Haven?** The transcript clarifies that Bitcoin is not yet a "safe haven" in the traditional sense. While gold rose 2–3% during the crisis, Bitcoin initially crashed before recovering. It still behaves like a high-risk asset during the initial shock of a crisis. However, its defining characteristic is the speed of its recovery. Comparisons to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the 2023 Hamas attacks show a pattern: Bitcoin dips sharply but recovers almost instantly. In this 2026 scenario, the "dip" lasted only hours rather than days, signaling increasing market maturity. A new market consensus is emerging: geopolitical shocks are now viewed as buying opportunities rather than exit signals. This was evidenced by the massive purchase of Bitcoin "call" options for $74,000 and $75,000 during the height of the panic. **Two Future Scenarios** The analysis presents two possible paths forward following the conflict: 1. **The Contained Conflict:** If the conflict is short-lived and Iran returns to negotiations, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, and oil prices stabilize. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to push toward $74,000 or $75,000 within weeks. This is the current "Wall Street consensus." 2. **The Long War:** If the war escalates, closing the Strait of Hormuz and driving oil above $100, inflation will return, and the Fed will be unable to lower interest rates. While this might pressure Bitcoin down to $55,000–$60,000 in the short term, the long-term outlook remains bullish. A major war forces massive government spending and emergency budgets, eventually forcing central banks to print money. As the transcript notes, every dollar printed to fund a war serves as an advertisement for Bitcoin, an asset with a mathematically capped supply of 21 million units. **Conclusion: The Bottoming Process** The current market structure, characterized by a post-halving cycle and massive institutional adoption through ETFs, suggests that this geopolitical shock could serve as a "capitulation event." Much like the FTX collapse or the 2020 COVID crash, these moments of mass liquidation often mark the construction of a market bottom. Ultimately, Bitcoin’s "geopolitical baptism" proves that while it remains volatile, it is a 24/7 liquidity sponge that "strong hands" use to accumulate wealth during periods of global panic. The long-term trajectory is driven by the inevitable debasement of fiat currency caused by war and debt.