สงครามเขย่าพลังงานโลก : ก๊าซธรรมชาติแพงยืดเยื้อ กดดันค่าไฟสูงอย่างน้อย 2 ปี | THE STANDARD WEALTH

The current geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has significantly disrupted global power flows, particularly impacting energy markets. This analysis focuses on the repercussions for Thailand, especially concerning the price and supply of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The Strait of Hormuz is a critical chokepoint for energy transportation, with approximately 20% of global crude oil and 19% of global LNG passing through it. Recent attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, including a reported loss of 13 million tons per year from Saudi Arabia (about 3% of global supply), have tightened the LNG market. For Thailand, which imports a significant portion of its LNG from Qatar (around 20% of total imports), these events have direct consequences. The price of LNG, tracked by the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), has seen considerable volatility. Before the conflict, JKM prices were around $10 per million British thermal units (BTU). They rose to approximately $16 per million BTU during the initial escalation and then surged to $22 per million BTU following the reported supply loss. More recently, news of potential de-escalation or resolution in certain areas has led to a decrease in LNG prices, falling to around $15 per million BTU. However, the situation remains fluid. SCB EIC has developed three scenarios to assess the impact: 1. **Baseline Scenario (No War Escalation):** In this scenario, the conflict does not escalate significantly, and energy continues to flow through the Strait of Hormuz. The JKM LNG price is estimated to average around $18 per million BTU for the year, with potential increases in the second and third quarters due to existing market tightness and the long repair times for damaged infrastructure (estimated at 3-5 years). 2. **Extended War Scenario:** If the conflict continues and escalates, with more widespread attacks, the price of LNG will increase. A 10% reduction in energy transport through critical straits could push LNG prices to around $25 per million BTU. 3. **Most Intense Scenario (War Expansion):** This scenario involves a significant expansion of the war into eastern regions and the closure of Red Sea coastlines. This would lead to a drastic reduction in energy transport and could drive LNG prices up to $36 per million BTU. In Thailand, natural gas is a primary fuel source for electricity generation, accounting for about 54% of the energy mix. The country relies on domestic production from the Gulf of Thailand (approximately 55% of supply), imports from Myanmar (11%), and LNG imports (33%). The recent disruption to LNG supply from Qatar, a key import source, has exacerbated the impact of high global LNG prices on Thailand's overall energy costs. The increased cost of natural gas directly affects electricity bills through the Fuel Adjustment Charge (FT). The FT charge is composed of two parts: estimated fuel costs and electricity purchased from power plants, and outstanding electricity bills owed to the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). The rising cost of natural gas, which is a primary fuel for power generation, will lead to higher FT charges. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) has already announced adjustments to electricity prices. For example, the price for the first 100 units of electricity has increased. Projections indicate further increases, with the FT charge for the September to December period estimated to reach 4.33 baht per unit. This could lead to an average electricity cost of around 4.1 baht per unit for the year. In a more severe scenario, with potential EGAT debt repayment, electricity prices could surge to 4.9 baht per unit. Looking ahead to next year, the LNG market is expected to remain tight, keeping JKM LNG prices elevated. The average electricity cost is projected to remain higher than pre-war levels, potentially exceeding 4 baht per unit for an extended period. This situation presents challenges for both households and businesses. Households will face higher electricity bills, impacting their cost of living. Businesses will experience increased production costs, affecting their competitiveness. To mitigate these impacts, several strategies are recommended: * **Energy Efficiency:** Both households and businesses should focus on improving energy efficiency. This includes adjusting air conditioning temperatures and optimizing machinery usage in industries. * **Alternative Energy Sources:** In the long term, Thailand needs to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on imports. Exploring options like Solar Rooftop systems can be beneficial. Government incentives, such as tax deductions for solar installations, can accelerate adoption. The payback period for solar installations is likely to decrease with rising electricity prices. * **Government Measures:** The government plays a crucial role. Short-term measures could involve more flexible electricity rate adjustments, potentially spreading costs over different periods to lessen the immediate burden on consumers. Addressing EGAT's debt and the AF value is also important. * **Long-Term Energy Strategy:** Thailand should invest in reliable, base-load power generation sources that can replace natural gas and coal. This includes exploring renewable energy options integrated with energy storage systems to ensure a 24-hour power supply. Furthermore, developing domestic energy resources, such as biomass, biogas, and hydrogen, can reduce import dependence and enhance energy security. This aligns with Thailand's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. The conflict in the Middle East serves as a stark reminder of the interconnectedness of global energy markets and the critical need for Thailand to build a more resilient and diversified energy future. The analysis from SCB EIC highlights the importance of understanding these macroeconomic trends to support informed decision-making for businesses and policymakers.