Crise en Iran : faut-il acheter la panique ? - Allo La Martingale #49

This summary captures the key insights and strategic conclusions from the discussion between host Amori Toncadex and investment experts Laurence Ben Safi (RBC BlueBay Asset Management) and Kevin Toset (Carmignac) regarding the current geopolitical climate and its impact on global markets. ### Geopolitical Tension and Safe Havens The conversation opens against a backdrop of conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and market volatility. Traditionally, gold and the US dollar serve as primary refuges during such uncertainty. Kevin Toset notes that while gold remains a vital long-term portfolio component due to rising geopolitical risks and the transition toward a multipolar world, its short-term behavior has been counterintuitive. Instead of a massive spike during the immediate outbreak of conflict, some investors took profits on gold to cover other losses, while others flocked to the US dollar for its liquidity. Laurence Ben Safi supports a long-term bullish view on gold, citing "dollar debasement." She explains that many nations, particularly emerging powers like China and India, are seeking to reduce their reliance on the US dollar for international trade. This structural shift encourages central banks to increase their gold reserves. ### The Oil Dilemma: Volatility and Strategy Regarding oil, the experts urge extreme caution for retail investors. Kevin points out that oil prices currently carry a "geopolitical premium" of $20 to $30—meaning the price is inflated by fear rather than just supply and demand. He warns that trying to trade daily oil fluctuations is dangerous for individuals, as prices can swing $30 within a single day. Furthermore, Laurence highlights a structural reason to avoid emerging market oil stocks: most are state-owned. These companies often prioritize government agendas over shareholder profits. Both guests agree that while oil might remain high in the short term due to conflict, the long-term outlook is challenged by the energy transition, particularly as China and India aggressively develop renewable energy to reduce import dependency. ### The Transformation of Emerging Markets (EM) A major theme of the discussion is the evolution of emerging markets over the last 20 years. Laurence argues that the "EM" label is often misunderstood. Some regions, like the Middle East or South Korea, are economically wealthy but classified as emerging due to market infrastructure or accessibility issues. Structurally, emerging markets are in better health than many developed nations. Laurence points out that EM countries have learned from past crises; they now have lower debt-to-GDP ratios and smaller fiscal deficits than their Western counterparts. Crucially, 90% of EM debt is now issued in local currencies, reducing the risk of a "dollar trap" that caused previous collapses. With 85% of the world’s population and a younger, more innovative workforce, these markets represent a growth engine that many global portfolios currently under-index. ### Strategic Allocation: US vs. Europe vs. EM The guests debate the ideal geographical split for a long-term portfolio. While the US currently dominates global indices (representing 70% of world equity indices), both experts see a need for rebalancing. Kevin suggests a 50% allocation to the US, with the remaining 50% split between Europe and Emerging Markets. He acknowledges that while one should "never bet against the US," the current valuations in the US are very high, driven largely by a few tech giants. In contrast, EM and European markets are "on sale." Kevin highlights that investors can find exposure to global themes like Artificial Intelligence (AI) through EM companies at a fraction of the price of US stocks. For example, South Korean firms like Samsung and SK Hynix provide the essential memory chips for Nvidia’s AI processors. Similarly, China leads the world in Electric Vehicle (EV) technology and battery production with companies like BYD and CATL. ### Sector Picks and the "HALO" Concept Laurence identifies the financial sector as a top pick within emerging markets. Many EM populations remain under-banked (e.g., in Mexico or the Philippines), providing a long runway for growth in basic banking and insurance. Additionally, higher interest rates are currently benefiting bank margins. Kevin introduces the "HALO" acronym: Heavy Asset, Low Obsolescence. He favors companies with tangible physical assets that are unlikely to be disrupted by rapid technological shifts. His examples include Consolidated Edison (a US utility) and Stora Enso (a Finnish forestry and construction company). He also mentions EssilorLuxottica as an interesting play where traditional optics meet future tech through smart glasses. ### Final Outlook and 10-Year Bets When asked for a "treasure chest" investment to hold for a decade, Laurence points to Southeast Asia—specifically Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia. She describes Indonesia as a unique powerhouse that combines a massive, young consumer population with vast reserves of critical raw materials like copper and nickel. Kevin concludes by emphasizing the necessity of active management. In a world where geopolitical "shocks" are becoming more frequent, a "buy and hold" strategy may no longer be sufficient. He argues that the ability to react to shifting cycles is the most valuable asset an investor can have in their portfolio. Ultimately, both experts view the current market panic as a potential entry point for those focused on long-term structural growth outside of the traditional US-centric model.