Pump surprise sur les Actions après le cessez-le-feu - La Météo des Marchés

The market experienced a volatile day with an upward trend, described as "choppy." After four days of gains, the gap is widening, particularly for the NASDAQ, making it challenging for those who didn't anticipate the shift amidst general uncertainty. The market showed hesitation, with indicators suggesting a back-and-forth movement. A significant event was Donald Trump's ultimatum regarding Iran, which was used as a strategic tool, a tactic known as the "Taco Trade." This involves issuing threats that are not fully carried out, allowing for leverage in negotiations, as detailed in his book "The Art of the Deal." The situation resolved unexpectedly close to the market's closing time, catching many off guard. Regarding market direction and capital flow, the "Alpha Terminal" provided insights. An interesting observation was the disconnect between AI-generated analyses and market reality. While AI might suggest certain trends, the actual market behavior can differ. For instance, despite AI potentially highlighting certain narratives, mega-cap tech stocks like Microsoft and Apple faced persistent pressure, with Microsoft down 23% and Apple under pressure. Conversely, energy sectors performed well. The speaker cautioned against relying solely on AI for market analysis, suggesting that it can sometimes synthesize information influenced by media narratives paid for by billionaires. There was a rotation from energy and manufacturing sectors towards technology. Microsoft, despite potential AI narratives, was showing signs of recovery, moving away from its bottom. Similarly, Google, despite the general pressure on big tech, was also reversing. The speaker noted that while these stocks had fallen significantly, they were now close to their all-time highs, with only a small percentage left to recover. However, Tesla was highlighted as an exception, still performing poorly. The speaker compared Tesla's chart to Ethereum before a significant drop, characterized by a large range since 2021, with the lower end being the most attractive buying zone. While these are considered privileged stocks with consistent buyer interest from large investors, the chart patterns are crucial. Tesla's breach of the $500 psychological level provided temporary reassurance but it reintegrated into a potentially long-term range. Despite a rebound, the speaker advised caution, noting a "deflating" trend. Apple's situation was also discussed. After a strong bullish candle, it experienced a significant correction. However, the market rebound "swallowed" this drop, and Apple appeared to have held its bottom after multiple tests, presenting an optimal entry point for range buyers. This indicated a return of capital and interest from large investors into stocks. Looking at technology stocks, Meta and Avgo were performing well, with Avgo being a significant gainer. Nvidia, however, remained resistant, with many participants maintaining defensive positions. Despite being back within its range, the speaker questioned what was happening with Nvidia, considering the potential for a short squeeze. The weekly structure had been broken, but it appeared to have consolidated horizontally. Money was flowing into Intel and Microsoft. In communication services, Meta and Google also saw substantial investment. The market was entering a "risk-on" mode, but the duration remained uncertain. Bitcoin also benefited from the rally, particularly in the spot market. The speaker noted that the current rally showed "much effect, little effort" in derivatives, contrasting with previous periods of "much effort, little effect." This suggested that retail traders ("degen") were overly bullish, and there was a risk of manipulation by algorithms, potentially assisted by AI, to trap those who are too long or too short. The speaker warned that while an upward break was possible, horizontal consolidation increases the risk of being punished. The rally was primarily spot-driven, with less derivative activity. Some traders were taking profits in the spot market while futures positions remained open, suggesting a potential for further upside. Okex was still adding to its positions, indicating that the Bitcoin rally might have legs. Attention was drawn to the upcoming CPI data on Friday, expected to increase volatility. The potential transition of Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair was also mentioned. If a replacement favored by Trump, Kevin Warsh, were to be appointed, it could influence market sentiment. Sector analysis suggested that while energy was once a top performer, it might now be too late to invest, drawing a parallel to buying the top in silver. The oil market remained volatile, offering trading opportunities but requiring careful risk management. ExxonMobil (XOM), a proxy for oil, showed a significant drop, indicating a potential bearish signal for oil prices. The speaker recalled anticipating a rally in oil and missing a trade opportunity on XOM, which had signaled a potential downturn a few days prior. The drop in XOM, including a gap, suggested that the situation was compromised even before April 1st. MicroStrategy was also mentioned as a stock that might benefit from the Bitcoin rally, despite its current weakness. It was holding near support and could be a target for a short squeeze. Intel was noted as being ultra-bullish, with money flowing into AI-related hardware. AMD was considered a potentially safer entry than Intel, which was approaching a resistance zone. AMD had shown a strong reversal and a well-defined range, offering potential upside. However, concerns were raised about Palantir, with evidence of hedging activity and significant selling pressure during the session, making it a less confident play despite a bullish chart. The speaker expressed a desire for more gains, having only five long positions despite the rebound, feeling disappointed by the lack of larger positions. This sentiment was attributed to FOMO, the fear of missing out on a classic post-major-move phenomenon. Two scenarios were presented: those on the sidelines who might be FOMO-ing and trying to catch up, potentially taking on excessive risk, and those who were short or bearish and suffering losses. For those who missed the rally, the speaker advised caution regarding position sizing and emphasized that other opportunities would arise. For those who were short, the speaker noted their suffering and their tendency to attribute market movements to geopolitical factors like the Iran conflict. The speaker cautioned against assuming that a resolution in Iran was a prerequisite for market recovery, pointing out that the US is involved in multiple conflicts and markets have historically moved forward regardless. The key takeaway was that price action is the ultimate arbiter; if the market indicates a risk-on environment and an upward trend, individual beliefs about economic conditions or geopolitical events are secondary. The speaker urged listeners to be wary of getting stuck in narratives that no longer align with market direction. The speaker then promoted the "Alpha Team" membership, offering tools like the Alpha Terminal, Journal, Training, and Coaching, all included in the subscription. A presentation live stream was available for those interested in the tools provided. The subscription was described as affordable, offering significant value in terms of content, support, and tools. The speaker concluded by promising to return tomorrow for the market weather report, which remains free.