อภิมหาโปรเจกต์ ‘แลนด์บริดจ์’ โอกาสทองภูมิรัฐศาสตร์ หรือ โปรเจกต์ความเสี่ยงสูง? | THE STANDARD WEALTH

The Land Bridge project, a long-standing initiative previously attempted by two governments, is being revived with renewed vigor. General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s administration initially envisioned this as a mega-project, budgeting 1 million baht for a comprehensive development including a port, motorway, and double-track railway. Despite these early efforts, the project faced budget constraints and was not initiated. Currently, Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul and Minister of Transport Pipat Ratchakitprakarn are pushing to achieve this by the end of the year. The project, which aims to connect the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea, is a key policy of the Bhumjaithai Party. They have thoroughly studied and revised the project to align with current global technological advancements, construction costs, and management styles. Prime Minister Anutin emphasizes the project's necessity due to geopolitical shifts and the need to control maritime transportation channels. He views it as a proactive strategy to enhance Thailand's stability, self-reliance, income generation, and economic prosperity, especially given potential future challenges to global shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Minister Pipat supports this view, highlighting Thailand's opportunity to develop deep-water ports on both coasts, transforming the country into a global transportation hub. He addresses criticisms that the project might not be fully beneficial due to time-consuming loading and unloading processes and additional charges. Pipat clarifies that over 90% of container ship operations involve transshipment—collecting goods from various ports, sorting them, and then distributing them to other destinations. Therefore, the Land Bridge project would not waste time or incur disadvantages, as ships already engage in transshipment, often at ports like Singapore. The government plans to incentivize more transshipment within Thailand. The Ministry of Transport aims to make the project a concrete reality this year, with details to be submitted to the cabinet for approval between June and July. The project's estimated cost is up to 1 trillion baht. Pipat confirms that the government will not use its budget for construction investment but will instead allocate space and grant concessions to private sector entities through fair bidding processes. Domestic and international investors are expected to have opportunities to invest by the third quarter of this year. However, academic perspectives offer a contrasting view. Dr. Somkiat Tangkitbi from the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) expresses concerns about the project's feasibility. While the Ministry of Transport's study suggests the project would be profitable and provide excellent economic and financial returns, an earlier study commissioned by the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC) from Chulalongkorn University concluded that the project would result in a loss, with low economic returns. This discrepancy highlights differing conclusions between government and academic studies. Dr. Thanit Sorat, President of a research group and former member of the US Security Task Force, also weighs in from a private sector and national security perspective. He notes that the project has been pushed before, failing in January 2020, and was revived under the current government in October 2023. He describes the Land Bridge as a "Global Marine Time project" with plans for a massive port capable of handling 20 million containers annually, half the capacity of Singapore, a global shipping hub. This would be twice the size of Laem Chabang, Thailand's current largest port. Dr. Thanit questions the commercial value and benefits, particularly regarding time savings. The concept is to bypass the Malacca Strait, saving ships about 3 days. However, he argues that modern ships travel at 20 knots, making the actual time saving negligible, possibly less than two days, not the four days often cited. He emphasizes that the cost-effectiveness, especially the "Time Economy," is not as significant as portrayed. He also raises concerns about the logistics and costs involved in transshipment via the Land Bridge. Imagine a world-class ship docking at Chumphon, unloading goods, which are then transported by train or six-lane motorway to Ranong, and then reloaded onto another ship. This process involves multiple transfers, tolls, and fees, potentially costing around 5,000 baht per vehicle for inspection alone. Dr. Thanit believes the initial investment for such marginal time savings is not worthwhile. Furthermore, he points out the issue of return cargo. If the port lacks an industrial base to generate outgoing cargo, ships might return empty, making the project even less viable. Environmentally, the project's impact on the Andaman Sea, particularly areas like Bird Island near Ranong, needs careful consideration. Dr. Thanit suggests that if Thailand aims to upgrade its logistics, it should focus on projects that are genuinely worthwhile and effective. He advises against the government investing the entire 1 trillion baht itself, instead advocating for private sector investment and robust concession contracts to prevent issues seen in past projects. He questions whether provinces like Chumphon and Ranong can accommodate ports of the proposed magnitude, especially given that a previous port in Ranong faced a lack of demand. He also suggests that if two ports are to be built, one could be for oil tankers, creating a petrochemical complex. However, he warns of potential environmental disasters and the need for careful consideration given the sensitive ecosystem around Ranong. In conclusion, Dr. Thanit Sorat, drawing from his expertise and on-site surveys, asserts that the Land Bridge project is not worth it, especially concerning time and cost. He highlights that actual time savings are minimal, while increased operational costs for businesses could be substantial. He advocates for focusing on domestic logistics and energy industries, but with extreme caution regarding ecological and tourism impacts.