แก้ กม.ธุรกิจต่างด้าวเปิดทางลงทุน 8 ธุรกิจ ต้องขออนุญาตหรือไม่ ไทยได้อะไร | Morning Wealth 14 พ.ค.69

Welcome to the program. Today, May 14th, 2026, we cover several key topics, including Donald Trump's visit to China, the financial performance of Chinese tech giants, Thailand's investment promotion efforts, the new Fed chairman, and the US capital market. First, let's discuss Thailand's recent policy adjustments to facilitate foreign business investment. The Cabinet has revised rules, allowing 8 types of businesses to operate in Thailand without requiring permits. These include telecommunications services, treasury centers, human resource and IT administrative services, domestic debt guarantee services, rental services for electronic equipment in finance and vending, petroleum drilling services, securities-related businesses under the Securities and Exchange Act, and service businesses for sales representatives, consultants, researchers, or fund managers for forward contracts not under the Forward Contracts Act B.E. 2545. Prime Minister Anutin clarified that this is a step-by-step process aimed at reducing redundancy in the permit application process. Previously, foreign businesses often needed multiple permits from various departments, such as the Department of Public Works and Town Planning for construction or the Department of Industrial Works for industrial operations, in addition to permits from the Ministry of Commerce. The Prime Minister stated that the Minister of Commerce initiated this change to streamline the process, as the Ministry of Commerce's role is primarily to register and ensure other agencies' permits are in order. A spokesperson for the Prime Minister, Mr. Montri Khun Rachada Thanadirek, further clarified that this move is not a blanket liberalization for foreigners to operate without oversight. Instead, it aims to improve regulations for specific high-tech businesses or those already under strict oversight by specialized agencies. For example, telecommunications businesses are regulated by the NBTC, treasury centers by the Bank of Thailand, securities and forward contract businesses by the SEC, and petroleum drilling by energy regulatory bodies. The goal is to reduce redundant permitting and align regulations with the current economic context. Behind this policy change, there are reports suggesting it's part of Thailand's negotiations with the US regarding tax exchanges, particularly concerning Section 301. Thailand is currently under investigation by the US under Section 301, a retaliatory tax tool against unfair trade practices, which could lead to high tariffs on Thai products. Relaxing foreign business rules is seen as a condition to facilitate these trade negotiations. Dr. Nontarit Phisarabutra of the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDI) noted that while these measures stimulate competition, the government must also support domestic businesses. He emphasized that sustainable competition requires a balanced environment, as Thai businesses might struggle against well-prepared foreign investment groups with advanced technology and financial resources. He cautioned against allowing monopolies to form, as this could lead to the demise of Thai businesses and foreign control of the market. Dr. Nontarit suggested opening up the telecommunications sector further due to its current duopoly, but advised caution in the financial sector, which requires high investment and could be dominated by global financial groups. A legal expert from The Standard mentioned that lawyers have long awaited some of these changes, such as allowing foreign companies to provide loan guarantees for subsidiaries, which shouldn't have required permits in the first place. However, concerns were raised about the broadness of some service categories and the lack of attached conditions, which could potentially undermine protection for developing Thai businesses. The unconditional opening of the telecommunications sector, a historically protected industry, raised questions about potential pressure from the US or EU, perhaps to accommodate the expansion of businesses like data centers. Dr. Pojjaram Wattananon, Chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, supported the Cabinet's resolution, viewing it as alignment with international free trade frameworks and beneficial for negotiating FTAs with major powers. He believes it reduces monopolies and stimulates competition, noting that foreign investors have long requested this level of openness. Mr. Pichet Sitthi-amnuay, President of the Stock Exchange of Thailand, echoed this, stating that Thailand's securities market is already quite open, with foreign ownership of brokerage businesses allowed up to 100%, though permits are still required. The current changes are seen as further relaxing these conditions and streamlining processes. Regarding foreign direct investment (FDI), Dr. Ekniti Nitithan Praphas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, reported an 18% growth in investment promotion applications in the first quarter of 2026, totaling approximately 260 billion baht. This reflects positive signs, driven by accelerated government policies and BOI measures like "Fast Plus." The Deputy Prime Minister emphasized that these measures, which expedite approval processes, are a result of collaboration between government agencies and the private sector, without relying on public funds. He believes that lifting regulations and limitations will help Thailand's economic potential grow by 3%, with this year's investment growth potentially reaching 5-6%. He highlighted Thailand's potential as a safe investment source, focusing on human resource development for new industries and public-private collaboration. The discussion then shifted to the Thai economy, acknowledging that this year is proving more challenging than the COVID-19 period. Ms. Pranee Sutthasri, Senior Director of Macroeconomics at the Bank of Thailand, reported that labor income in Thailand is expected to decline slightly in 2026, with a 3% year-on-year growth rate, a significant slowdown compared to the 2015-2019 average of 4.7%. Key factors include a slowdown in tourism due to the Middle East conflict, affecting independent entrepreneurs and service sector workers, and agricultural income impacted by weather. While employee earnings are projected to grow, the rate will slow from 4.1% to 3.2%. Self-employed income, which previously expanded by 8%, is now expected to grow by only 1.3% and even contract by -3% this year before recovering. Farmers face the most severe crisis, with income contracting sharply by -6.6% this year and an even deeper -8.5% in 2027, before a slight rebound. This comes amidst rising living costs due to higher energy and raw material prices, impacting both private consumption and business costs. Private consumption is projected to slow to 1.6% in 2026 from 2.7% last year, though a recovery in tourism could boost it to 1.9% next year. The Bank of Thailand also expressed concerns about the emergency decree to borrow 400 billion baht. The Monetary Policy Committee emphasized that fiscal measures should be targeted and efficient, as fiscal space is limited. The committee warned against non-specific consumption stimulus measures, suggesting they could limit future policy operations. Instead, they recommended focusing on restructuring the energy sector to improve efficiency, use fossil fuels, and support clean energy to reduce vulnerability to price fluctuations. Ms. Pranee estimated that while the 400 billion baht stimulus could boost growth by 0.6% this year, it might reduce growth by 0.4% in 2027 due to increased prices and inflation, although domestic demand remains fragile. The rising costs of energy and petrochemical derivatives pose a significant challenge for Thai businesses, which are struggling to pass on these burdens to consumers due to weak purchasing power and intense competition. Mr. Nanthapong Chiralertpong, Director-General of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office (TPSO), reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for "Products made in Thailand" surged by 9.1% in April, the highest in 42 years. This increase is primarily due to volatile global energy prices, rising refined oil prices, and increased shipping costs. While the PPI's growth rate is expected to slow in May, overall production costs remain high, and logistics costs have not significantly decreased. Businesses are absorbing these costs, unable to fully pass them on to consumers due to the fragile domestic economy, weak purchasing power, and intense price competition. A Bank of Thailand survey in April found that 81% of businesses face high costs, 41% encounter material problems, and 32% experience raw material shortages or declining orders. Most entrepreneurs cannot fully pass on cost burdens, leading to only partial price increases that don't cover full cost growth. Moving to the stock market, the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ indices hit all-time highs yesterday, driven by technology stocks. The DJIA, however, saw a slight decrease. Nvidia's stock surged over 2% after its CEO, Jensen Huang, unexpectedly joined Donald Trump's delegation to China. Micron Technology also saw a rise. Conversely, two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks, including Home Depot and JP Morgan Chase, declined. Chinese tech giants Alibaba and Tencent reported lower-than-expected earnings, reflecting a shift in investment towards AI resources that have not yet translated into significant revenue or profit. Alibaba's revenue increased by only 3%, causing its stock to initially fall before recovering. Both companies are under pressure from investors to show returns on their AI investments and face competition from smaller AI startups. Executives are confident that AI investments will soon generate returns, with Alibaba's AI services revenue projected to reach 30 billion yuan by year-end, though this needs to be weighed against substantial investment costs. The US tech sector is seeing continuous layoffs, with Cisco announcing plans to cut nearly 4,000 employees as part of a restructuring to shift investments towards AI. Cisco also revised its revenue forecast upward due to strong demand for large-scale mobile services. LinkedIn is also preparing to lay off approximately 5% of its workforce to restructure and focus on growing businesses, though its job search and member services revenue increased by 12%. These layoffs are attributed to cost management and efficiency drives as companies integrate AI, rather than direct AI replacement of labor. Returning to Thailand's policy changes, Professor Sarinee Achawanantakul, an independent scholar, generally viewed the amendments to the Foreign Business Act B.E. 2542 as positive, as they reduce redundancy in permit applications. She noted that many of the 8 exempted businesses are complex and already have clear regulatory bodies. Her main concern was with the wording of the eighth category, regarding forward contract fund managers, which seemed ambiguous if the product or variable is not covered by the Forward Contracts Act. She believes the effectiveness of these changes depends on the competence of the specialized regulatory agencies. Professor Sarinee acknowledged that while the changes could increase flexibility and align with international standards, some risks include potential trouble if governance is not effective. She emphasized that if regulatory agencies like the Bank of Thailand, NBTC, and SEC are trusted to direct effectively, then the "second lock" of the Foreign Business Act becomes redundant. She believes the policy will enhance Thailand's competitiveness and improve its ranking in the Ease of Doing Business Index, which is crucial for attracting investment and potential OECD membership. She urged vigilance from regulatory agencies to ensure effective oversight for both foreign and domestic businesses, especially for less familiar services like debt guarantee or money management centers. She also noted that the government's efforts to detect and prevent the use of nominees for illegal activities, often involving AI, are a positive development. Regarding potential competition, Professor Sarinee believes that while the changes aim to increase competition, the actual impact will depend on the regulatory bodies. For instance, in the telecommunications sector, even with relaxed business laws, the NBTC still governs operations, so a sudden influx of new automatic subscription services is unlikely. In conclusion, Thailand's policy adjustments aim to streamline foreign business operations, reduce redundancy, and attract investment, with potential benefits for the country's economic standing and international trade negotiations. However, careful oversight by regulatory bodies is crucial to ensure fair competition, protect domestic businesses, and manage potential risks. The Thai economy faces significant challenges, including declining labor income, rising costs, and a fragile domestic demand, necessitating targeted and efficient fiscal policies. Meanwhile, global tech companies are navigating the complexities of AI investments and restructuring their workforces.