The college dream is falling apart | The Gray Area

The podcast features an interview with Noam Shyber, a labor reporter for The New York Times and author of "Mutiny: The Rise and Revolt of the College Educated Working Class." Shyber argues that over the past two decades, college graduates have experienced a decline in economic prospects, falling short of the promises associated with higher education. This disillusionment has pushed them towards more left-leaning economic views and a greater willingness to organize in the workplace. Shyber defines the group he writes about as those who graduated college around 2008-2009, during and after the Great Recession. This generation prepared extensively for college, taking on significant debt with the expectation of achieving upper-middle-class status. However, upon graduation, they found that the return on their degrees was stagnant or declining. Even as the broader economy recovered, recent college graduates struggled, with median wages remaining significantly below earlier levels and employment rates lagging. This prolonged period of economic difficulty, even before the advent of AI, has been radicalizing, leading to increased support for concepts like socialism and a surge in unionization efforts. The "revolt" Shyber describes is directed both against the broader American capitalist system and more directly against their employers. He highlights examples at companies like Starbucks, Apple, and Microsoft, where college-educated workers, often in jobs that were not their initial career aspirations, found themselves facing stagnant wages and deteriorating working conditions. This frustration, he explains, has motivated them to unionize. Shyber contrasts this new generation of college-educated workers with the "bobo" (bohemian bourgeoisie) described by David Brooks in the early 2000s. While the bobos were upwardly mobile, economically comfortable, and embraced a bohemian aesthetic alongside neoliberal economic policies, Shyber's subjects, whom he playfully dubs "probos" (proletarian bourgeoisie), share some superficial bourgeois aesthetics (e.g., sleek devices, fancy coffee) but possess vastly different economic realities. They are burdened by student debt and work in jobs that offer little economic security, such as retail or service positions. A key figure in Shyber's book is Teddy Hoffman, a graduate of the prestigious Grinnell College who, after a fellowship abroad, found himself working at Starbucks. Hoffman's story illustrates the "failure to launch" experienced by many college graduates. Initially, jobs at companies like Starbucks and Apple were attractive due to their perceived aspirational nature, decent benefits, and company culture. However, Shyber details how these jobs have been progressively degraded. At Starbucks, for instance, benefits and reliable scheduling diminished after the financial crisis, particularly under Howard Schultz's return as CEO, leading to more precarious work conditions. Similarly, at Apple stores, the initial vision of "creatives" as missionaries for Apple products evolved into more sales-focused roles with less emphasis on personalized customer education, a shift driven by operational efficiency under Tim Cook. The pandemic significantly exacerbated the alienation felt by workers like Teddy. Despite initial generous responses from employers, by late 2020, workplace conditions became more challenging with relaxed safety protocols and increased customer belligerence. For Teddy, who had been trying to leave Starbucks, the pandemic closed off perceived escape routes through job rejections, leaving him feeling trapped. This period of intensified hardship and perceived dehumanization at work ultimately spurred Teddy and his colleagues to organize. The Starbucks unionization drive, which began organically and spread rapidly across the country, is presented as a pivotal moment. Workers, inspired by early successes in Buffalo, Phoenix, and Boston, utilized online platforms and shared resources to organize. This movement provided a sense of purpose and meaning for many, including Teddy, who found profound significance in the unionization effort, feeling it was the most meaningful thing he had ever done. Shyber emphasizes the significance of these union drives, noting that they occurred at major companies like Amazon, Apple, and Trader Joe's, which had previously been entirely non-unionized. This has brought labor issues to the forefront of public consciousness, appearing on front pages and involving companies that college-educated consumers interact with daily. He also observes a growing "worker consciousness" among professionals, citing the example of doctors unionizing in large numbers, who now see themselves as workers facing similar treatment from employers as those in blue-collar roles. Regarding the political alignment of these college-educated workers, Shyber acknowledges both ideological and economic factors. While he places more weight on economics, he notes a leftward shift in their views, particularly since 2008, coinciding with economic downturns. He points to the growing "diploma divide" in voting patterns, with college graduates increasingly aligning with Democrats and non-graduates with Republicans since the Trump era. However, he suggests that economic issues can bridge this divide, citing the example of New York City mayoral candidate Eric Adams, who focused on concrete economic concerns like affordability and public services. Shyber also challenges the idea that certain controversial issues, like Gaza, necessarily divide young people based on education, pointing to polling data that shows similar sentiments among young graduates and non-graduates. He also notes a convergence on issues like crime and immigration, where college graduates have moved towards more skeptical stances during the Biden administration. Looking towards the future, AI presents a significant source of anxiety. Shyber observes that the labor market for recent college graduates has already worsened in the past five years, largely independent of AI, due to a gradual decline in demand for degreed workers and automation. He fears that AI will disproportionately impact mid-career professionals who are more expensive and possess extensive knowledge, rather than entry-level workers who are cheaper and more adaptable. The impact of AI on unions is complex. While AI can be a contentious issue in negotiations, as seen in the 2023 Writers Guild of America strike, where protections were won against AI replacing human writers, Shyber believes that jobs requiring significant human interaction and social skills may be more resistant to automation. This could potentially steer college graduates towards fields less susceptible to AI displacement, making organizing efforts in sectors like retail and service, which are harder to automate, even more critical. Reflecting on historical parallels, Shyber draws a comparison to the surge in radicalization and unionization during the 1930s. While capitalism has historically adjusted and improved living standards, he suggests that the current era of increased management-labor confrontation and the potential for widespread job displacement due to AI could spur a similar backlash. He notes the significant gap between public approval of unions and actual union membership, making mass organization challenging. However, he anticipates continued unrest manifesting in various ways, including the political arena, and potentially in a more confrontational relationship between management and labor, with AI at the forefront of this struggle. He believes that college graduates, feeling a sense of agency and vulnerability, will make their voices heard through political participation, online organizing, rallies, and protests, indicating a period of significant unrest ahead.