Bitcoin ⚠️ Google alerte sur le quantique 🚨

The financial landscape remains in a state of flux, with Bitcoin hovering around $66,700, showing a year-to-date decline of 22%. Other major cryptocurrencies like Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana are also down significantly, ranging from 26% to 31%. However, Tron (TRX) and HyperLiquid are notable exceptions, showing strong positive performance year-to-date. Tron exhibits stability with its entire line in the green, while HyperLiquid is up 61% year-to-date and 36% monthly. Stellar and Tao Bitensor also show some positive weekly and monthly gains, with Tao Bitensor up 83% monthly and 49% year-to-date. Render, bridging infrastructure and artificial intelligence, has seen a 17.40% monthly increase and a 33% rise since the beginning of the year. A significant concern has emerged from Google Research regarding the potential impact of quantum computing on cryptography. Google warns that within three to four years, specifically by 2029, quantum advancements could compromise current cryptographic algorithms, including those underpinning Bitcoin. The urgency is to develop "quantum-proof" algorithms. While Bitcoin, often described as a large, difficult-to-maneuver battleship, might struggle with a rapid transition, Ethereum appears more agile, having demonstrated its capability for significant changes during "The Merge." This alert from Google, a major research pool, underscores the seriousness of the threat, suggesting potential catastrophic implications by 2030 if not addressed. In other crypto news, Circle is preparing to launch its Wrapped Bitcoin, CWB, which will be backed one-for-one by BTC. This will enable the use of CIR BTC as collateral in DeFi applications on the Ethereum blockchain. Additionally, Aave V4, rebranded as Aave4 Pro, is now available, promising unified liquidity and potentially better ratios for borrowers and depositors across various blockchains. This development comes amid ongoing discussions within the Aave community regarding its decentralized origins versus a more centralized, enterprise-driven vision. Data security remains a pressing issue in France, with Gold Union, a leader in gold and silver trading, reportedly suffering a data breach. This incident exposed over 120,000 gold buyers' personal information, including identities, addresses, and transaction details. This highlights a concerning trend of frequent data leaks in France, prompting a recommendation for affected individuals to consider external storage for their physical assets. On a positive note, the successful launch of Artemis 2 marks a historic step towards future lunar missions. With Artemis 3 or 4 slated for 2027-2028, humanity aims to return to the Moon, potentially paving the way for further exploration towards Mars, a long-held ambition for figures like Elon Musk. From a technical analysis perspective, global markets remain tense and volatile, partly due to ongoing geopolitical issues in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Despite these tensions, the VIX index has dropped to 24, indicating that markets haven't panicked significantly. US Oil is trading above UK Oil, at $112 per barrel versus $109, reflecting double-digit percentage increases. The US money supply shows a strong rebound, suggesting ample liquidity in markets, which may be helping absorb shocks without drastic downturns. However, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ are showing signs of a distribution phase, with the 50-day moving average providing some support. A minor correction of about 10% for the S&P 500, potentially reaching 6150 points before or during the summer, is anticipated. The RSI for these indices is low, around 35-36, and the MACD is approaching the neutral zone, indicating a slowdown. Concerns about stagflation, characterized by exploding consumer prices, are growing, particularly if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. This situation could severely impact the European zone, and while the US will also suffer, it faces internal issues, including the uncertain direction of interest rates under the new Fed president. US 20-year and 30-year bond yields are near 5%, while the DXY dollar index is at a critical pivot point of 100, potentially moving towards 103 or even 110. Precious metals like gold are fluctuating, currently at $4676. The total crypto market cap stands at $2.3 trillion, showing signs of deceleration near the 200-day moving average, which some interpret as a potential bottom or a double ascending bottom pattern. Oscillators suggest the market is nearing the end of a correction rather than the beginning. However, the uncertain global macroeconomic situation, particularly the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, makes future predictions difficult. A potential rebound in April for Bitcoin, reaching $70,000-$80,000, could be followed by another downturn in autumn as the economic consequences of current events become clearer. Bitcoin’s short-term outlook remains degraded, but low oscillators suggest it's not at the start of a correction, possibly 70% through a bear market. The question remains whether it will find support at $60,000, $50,000, or even $40,000, similar to the 2022 trauma. Ethereum is trading below its $2150 pivot, with all moving averages above it, particularly the flat 200-day moving average at $2440. A sustained break above the 42-43 RSI zone could lead it towards $2800-$3200 and eventually towards $4900-$5000 in the long term. Ethereum appears to be forming a large ascending right-angled triangle, potentially signaling a strong bull run if it breaks out upwards. Crypto mining stocks like Marathon and Riot are degraded, while TerraWolf remains high within its range. Circle, after an initial pump from $50 to $135, has pulled back to around $90, finding support at its 20-day moving average. To confirm a new uptrend, it needs to break above $140-$145. Coinbase is attempting to form a double bottom, supported by its RSI and MACD, around its 200-day moving average. Institutional investors are actively observing and likely buying at the 200-day moving average, considering it a significant discount. This institutional involvement, particularly through ETFs, suggests the 200-day moving average on Bitcoin will be more robustly defended than in previous cycles. MicroStrategy, however, despite being in oversold territory, has not seen the expected rebound after touching its 200-day moving average. In the stock market, Netflix recently increased its prices, leading to a positive market reaction, with its stock nearing $100. Other US stocks, including Microsoft, are struggling due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and the rise of AI. Microsoft is trading below its 200-day moving average, near the $350 support level. French sectors like energy and defense are performing well, with Total hovering around €80. Schneider Electric is trading near its 50- and 100-day moving averages, with its 200-day average at €195 and a strong support at €173 from 2022. This offers potential entry points for investors, with discounts of 17% to 27% from current levels. Altcoins, including Algo, Iota, PP, Injective, and Atom Cosmos, remain challenging, with many struggling against the dollar and Bitcoin. Aave, for instance, despite some internal vision challenges, is in a long-term accumulation box against the dollar between $45 and $115. However, against Bitcoin, Aave has been in a downtrend since May 2021, demonstrating that most altcoins underperform Bitcoin over a four-year cycle. Finally, the Japanese Topix index is attempting to stabilize around its 20-day moving average after recent declines. Long-term Japanese interest rates have risen significantly but may now be settling. The global economy appears to be heading towards stagflation, where inflation rises but wages do not keep pace, eroding household confidence and contracting economic activity. The increasing role of AI and automation raises profound questions about the future of work, the need for universal basic income, and the potential for super-taxation on AI-driven super-profits. The next five years, especially with Google's quantum computing warning, are unlikely to be uneventful.