Le Secteur Tech en Forme (Bitcoin, MAG7, MSFT, Spatial) - La Météo des Marchés

The market is currently exhibiting a very strong bullish trend, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq showing impressive performance. While Monday saw a bullish surge, there have been some sector shifts. Defensive sectors like energy, healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples are currently in the red, indicating a risk-on environment with a significant focus on technology. Nvidia is mentioned, alongside a notable rebound in Microsoft and the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, all fueled by the prevailing narrative of artificial intelligence. This suggests a pure risk-on market, which took time to gain momentum amidst earlier market jitters. The Producer Price Index (PPI) data was released, but as of the recording, there hasn't been a significant market reaction, though this could change during the US session. The sector rotation away from defensive stocks reinforces the "risk-on" sentiment, driven by technology. Banking stocks are currently in earnings season, with JP Morgan's results being a key event. The market's bullish condition is described as "conditional risk-on," influenced by geopolitical news, specifically the Iran-US situation. The speaker emphasizes that even with ongoing geopolitical conflicts, a bullish market will remain bullish. The transcript highlights a sentiment of disbelief from some market participants who fail to understand why the market is rising despite geopolitical tensions, such as potential blockades in the Strait of Hormuz. The core message is that "the truth is in the price." Market participants are urged not to be swayed by their own beliefs about what *should* happen but to follow the actual market movement, which is currently strongly bullish. The speaker advises against being like the general public, who can be easily conditioned and end up missing out on buying opportunities. The speaker notes that while it might be late to enter the market, the key is anticipation rather than just following the trend. The influx of money and significant buying activity in indices suggest a strong bullish conviction. There's also a mention of a rebound in software stocks, which was discussed previously. While not all software stocks are performing well, Microsoft's rebound is seen as potentially driving the S&P 500 and Nasdaq towards new all-time highs. Roblox is mentioned as a stock that has seen a small rebound, but its weekly performance is described as very bearish, though a daily software rebound is considered a possibility. The speaker personally is already invested in Microsoft and finds that sufficient, aiming for a conservative target of 420-430. The technology and software sectors are dominant this week. Regarding major banks, there were insider purchases by the CEOs of JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs just before their earnings reports, which could be interpreted as a positive sign. This suggests that sometimes, following insider buying, especially after a dip, can be a profitable strategy. On the economic data front, the PPI release had no significant market impact. No major US news events are expected until the following week, with inflation data scheduled for April 22, 2026. Discussions around interest rates in 2026 indicate that a majority of projections suggest no change, with a smaller portion anticipating rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump's actions are mentioned as "Trump trumperies" and not a significant market driver. Macroeconomically, the US dollar is weakening significantly, trading near the midpoint of its range. This is not ideal for dollar holders and suggests a potential for further downside if the current bearish trend continues. A strong dollar can negatively impact US exports, while a weaker dollar can stimulate the economy by making exports cheaper. The weakening dollar is also seen as an expression of global de-dollarization. The market is currently not showing stress, and volatility, as indicated by the VIX, is low. The S&P 500 is nearing its all-time highs, with the psychological 7000-point level also within reach. The Nasdaq, with its tech focus, is also showing strong price action, suggesting the potential for another bullish leg. The speaker believes the market is in the early stages of a move, with investors just emerging from a period of anxiety. There has been a lack of significant hedging in positions over the past two days, indicating market confidence. In the space sector, ASTS, RKLB, and Fly are mentioned as potentially interesting stocks. Turning to Bitcoin, a weekly double-bottom pattern is forming, though it has not yet broken out. There are significant open interest figures in derivatives on Binance. The spot CVD during the recent price increase shows heavy selling, leading to two possible interpretations: either a distribution phase by sellers taking advantage of a derivative-driven rally, or the absorption of aggressive sellers without impacting the price. The speaker leans towards the bullish scenario, noting a correlation with software stock performance and the potential for a rebound. The optimistic outlook includes the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $100,000, driven by market makers aiming to create excitement, regardless of whether the price actually reaches that level. The speaker acknowledges the derivative activity but remains optimistic about the current structure. Finally, the speaker promotes "Alpha Team" as a valuable investment for trading success, offering professional insights and tools, including training content, an AI-assisted journal, and a mindset coach.