รัฐบาลจ่อออก พ.ร.ก. กู้เงิน 5 แสนล้าน ปรับเพดานหนี้ รับมือวิกฤตประเทศ | Morning Wealth 21 เม.ย. 69

The discussion revolves around Thailand's economic situation, focusing on public debt, tax reforms, and energy policy. Academics and economists are debating the government's consideration of raising the public debt ceiling and issuing emergency decrees to borrow money, as well as potential tax adjustments, including an increase in value-added tax (VAT) from 7% to 10%. Dr. Nonrit Phisarnbut, a senior academic at TDRI, explains that borrowing money or raising the debt ceiling can be justified if the economy is growing slower than its potential or during a specific crisis caused by external factors like war or natural disasters. However, he expresses reservations, noting that past government stimulus efforts, such as digital money handouts, haven't always led to the expected economic circulation and growth, suggesting structural problems in the Thai economy. He emphasizes that borrowing should ideally fund projects that create long-term sustainability rather than just consumption. He advocates for investments that enhance human capabilities and link small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to supply chains, addressing issues like high household debt and lack of access to funding. On the effectiveness of borrowing, Dr. Nonrit highlights the "multiplier" effect, where 1 baht invested should stimulate more than 1 baht in the economy. He points out that direct money transfers often have a lower multiplier compared to infrastructure investments. Given Thailand's high debt levels, he stresses the need for investments that yield exceptionally high returns, such as improving the efficiency of the export and tourism sectors. Regarding priorities, Dr. Nonrit suggests that while helping vulnerable groups is important, it should be targeted, not broad-based. He argues for using remaining funds to restructure the economy, focusing on human capital development rather than large infrastructure projects like land bridges. The discussion then shifts to tax structure reform. Dr. Nonrit acknowledges that Thailand's tax collection is low compared to other middle and high-income countries. He proposes a comprehensive reform that diversifies the tax base, ensuring everyone pays taxes, perhaps with government assistance for lower-income individuals (negative income tax). He warns that a simple VAT increase could disproportionately burden the poor if not carefully designed, especially given existing tax exemptions. He stresses the need for clear communication from the government about its plans, financial needs, and how it will support vulnerable groups. Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Ninthapraphan stated that the government is carefully considering the issuance of an emergency decree for a 500 billion baht loan to cope with potential crises, asserting it's within constitutional authority. He noted that Thailand's public debt is currently at 66% of GDP, within the 70% ceiling, and the treasury still has about 4% of GDP available for borrowing (approximately 800 billion baht) without needing to raise the ceiling yet. He also mentioned that the Ministry of Finance is guaranteeing a 150 billion baht loan to increase liquidity for the oil fund, which has accumulated over 100 billion baht in debt. Another minister, Mr. Phat Prisna Natakul, clarified that discussions about the emergency decree are ongoing and no proposal has been submitted to the Cabinet. He explained that immediate budget transfers to address the oil fund's debt are not feasible due to legal constraints and that the government's current priority is using the remaining 70 billion baht from the 2024 and 2025 budgets for debt repayment. He confirmed that the "Thai Help Thai" project, aimed at assisting over 10 million people with a lump sum by June, will proceed using approximately 20 billion baht from the existing budget. Dr. Ekniti Nitithanpraphas, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, reiterated that the decision on the emergency decree is not yet confirmed, pending legal and constitutional review. He emphasized that Thailand still has borrowing capacity and does not necessarily need to extend the debt ceiling at this time. He highlighted that international rating agencies focus on the purpose of borrowing rather than the act itself. Dr. Ekniti stated that the government's immediate focus for 2027 is budget cuts, eliminating unnecessary annual expenses, particularly in travel and provincial development, to free up funds for public relief. The Director of the Budget Bureau, Mr. Anan Kaewkamnerd, confirmed a strategic meeting on April 22nd to review the budget framework for fiscal year 2027, which is estimated at 3.788 trillion baht, a 2% increase from 2026. Dr. Athimutita Charoen, a professor at Chulalongkorn University, argued that not borrowing in a crisis could be more dangerous than borrowing. The key is to manage debt repayment without eroding trust or creating long-term problems. She criticized past borrowing strategies during COVID-19 for lacking clear project goals and debt reduction maps, leading to scattered spending with little long-term return. She also warned about the rising cost of debt (currently 12% of government revenue, projected to rise to 14%) and the risk of Thailand's credit rating dropping, which would further increase interest rates and limit future investment capacity. She pointed out a structural problem of a lack of fiscal discipline despite existing laws. Dr. Pipat Luang Narmitchai, Chief Economist at Kiat Ken Phatthana Financial Business, echoed that borrowing is not forbidden but must be used wisely with a plan for debt reduction and building financial resilience. He suggested a three-pronged approach: controlling expenses, using loans wisely for economically worthwhile projects that alleviate hardship, and increasing government revenue through tax base expansion and potentially raising VAT. He also emphasized long-term GDP growth through future-oriented investments and human resource development. The Senate's Economic, Financial, and Fiscal Affairs Committee proposed guidelines for restructuring Thailand's tax system, focusing on five approaches: justice, competitive efficiency, expanding the tax base, storage efficiency through modern technology, and strengthening the green economy. Specific proposals include: * **Income-based taxes:** Mandating tax filing for all income earners, implementing e-commerce platform withholding tax, including dividends over 10 million baht in progressive tax calculations, and a 3-year tax exemption for startups in target industries. They also proposed collecting corporate tax from foreign e-commerce businesses (like TikTok, eBay, Alibaba) at 20% of net profit to ensure fair competition with Thai entrepreneurs. * **Consumption-based taxes:** Gradually increasing VAT from 7% to 10%, revoking VAT exemptions for businesses with income under 1.8 million baht to bring all entities into the tax system, promoting e-tax invoices, and using lottery ticket receipts to encourage payment verification. They also proposed a stock sales tax (0.05-0.11% on all sales, regardless of profit or loss) and studying taxes on gold sales. * **New taxes:** A travel tax of 1,000 baht for air travel and 500 baht for land/sea travel, regardless of nationality. * **Property/wealth-based taxes:** Reducing the tax exemption limit for land and building tax on residential properties from 50 million baht to 10-20 million baht and increasing taxes on vacant land. They also suggested lowering the exemption ceiling for inheritance tax and requiring payment within 150 days of death. * **Local taxes:** Researching a "Hometown Tax" option for taxpayers to donate a portion of their tax to local government organizations to reduce inequality and increase local fiscal independence. Lieutenant Commander Wuttipong Pongsuwan, a senator, expressed his personal view that taxes should be lowered first to allow people to regain purchasing power, rather than increasing VAT to 10%. He emphasized that the Senate's role is to review government proposals, not to initiate tax increases. The discussion also touched on global oil prices. The Fuel Fund Management Committee approved reducing fund levy rates for diesel and gasoline, leading to a decrease in retail diesel prices. While global crude oil prices have dropped, the refining margin in Thailand has increased, raising public suspicion. The Energy Minister pledged to monitor oil prices and consider a second distillation to alleviate the cost of living, with results expected by April 23rd. The Oil Fund's daily burden has significantly decreased, improving its liquidity. ASEAN countries, including Malaysia, Indonesia, and Vietnam, are actively seeking to diversify their energy sources, with increased interest in importing oil from Russia due to geopolitical shifts and existing good diplomatic relations. The Philippines, a strong US ally, has declared a national energy emergency and is seeking US assistance to ease restrictions on buying oil, while also considering suppliers from South America, Canada, and the US. Finally, the program covered two major US developments: 1. **US Federal Reserve:** Kevin Warsh, nominated for Fed President, emphasized focusing on inflation control and the Fed's independence, criticizing its past involvement in issues like climate change or social inequality. This nomination faces potential obstacles, including an ongoing investigation into a previous restructuring project. 2. **Apple Leadership Change:** Tim Cook announced he would step down as CEO, passing the baton to Jeff Williams, Senior Vice President of Hardware Engineering, effective September 1st. Cook, who led Apple for 15 years after Steve Jobs, oversaw a 24-fold increase in market capitalization and transformed the iPhone into a platform for other successful products. Williams, a long-time Apple employee, is expected to lead the company into the future, particularly in the critical field of artificial intelligence, where Apple is seen as lagging behind competitors.