Un cessez-le-feu très fragile

The situation has destabilized an already fragile ceasefire, with Israel asserting that the truce does not extend to Lebanon, a position confirmed by Washington. Explosions were witnessed in Beirut, with rapid, unannounced Israeli strikes hitting over 100 locations in just ten minutes across the capital, including residential areas not linked to the Hezbollah community. These attacks resulted in significant human and material damage, with 254 deaths reported by the Lebanese Civil Defense. Residents expressed shock and confusion, with one stating, "I expected anything but this, that it would happen here, in Beirut. Nobody understands why. It's a shock." Another resident emphasized that the targeted area was a residential neighborhood with a predominantly Sunni population, having no connection to the events. This escalation occurred on a "black Wednesday," with new exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah the following morning. The international community condemned this escalation during a ceasefire. The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights denounced "appalling massacres." French President E. Macron, who spoke with Lebanese authorities, openly criticized Israel. The core of the issue lies in the differing interpretations of the ceasefire. Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu maintained that Lebanon was never included in the temporary ceasefire with Iran, stating, "I have always said that the temporary ceasefire with Iran did not include Hezbollah. We will therefore continue to strike them, and hard." However, the newly appointed speaker of the Iranian Parliament contradicted this on X. Regarding the American stance, a statement indicated confirmation that Lebanon was not part of the agreement. When questioned about why, and whether Lebanon should have been included, the response was, "It's because of Hezbollah, but we will deal with it." Upcoming talks in Islamabad are expected to be complicated, as acknowledged by J.D. Vance, who will lead the US delegation. Vance suggested that if Iran wishes for negotiations to fail due to the conflict in Lebanon, which he argued has no connection to Iran and was not included in the US-brokered ceasefire, it would be their choice, though he considered it a foolish one. Both sides are attempting to maintain pressure. Former President Trump used his social media, while Tehran, through its ambassador to the UN, declared that the war had changed everything, including the legal status of the Strait of Hormuz, with details to be discussed and decided later. These details are significant globally, as Iran announced the closure of the Strait in retaliation for the bombings in Lebanon, leading to a rise in oil prices. The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains confused, with discussions about geopolitical implications. Experts suggest that the recent strikes on areas not linked to Hezbollah could potentially reignite the group's initial strength derived from its fight against Israel. However, the question remains about a political solution for Lebanon, which Israel does not appear to be considering. Israel's objective in southern Lebanon is reportedly to create a buffer zone up to the Litani River to eradicate Hezbollah, but the question of whether an idea can be eradicated if its root cause is not addressed is raised. Regarding the dynamic between Trump and Netanyahu, it's suggested that Trump might have urged Netanyahu towards restraint given the fragile ceasefire. However, Trump's decisions are described as unpredictable, though he has largely aligned with Netanyahu, with a slight reservation noted that Netanyahu was not pleased about being informed of the ceasefire at the last minute. The specifics of the agreement and what Trump is prepared to negotiate are still being clarified. There appears to be an American negotiation plan and an Iranian plan. The American plan is described as radical, representing a complete break from Iran's current policies, focusing on nuclear proliferation, ballistic missile capabilities, support for regional militias, and the liberation of the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran considers nationalized and potentially subject to tolls. The situation is described as confusing with no agreement yet. J.D. Vance's trip to Pakistan is seen as an opportunity for each party to present their proposals. While there is an existing ceasefire, meaning no direct hostilities, this is considered a significant step that opens the possibility for Iran and Trump to find a way forward. The upcoming discussions will involve negotiations on demands and concessions, with Pakistan hosting, though key actors like Israelis and Arabs are not directly at the table.