CPI : Inflation en Hausse de 0.9% avec le prix des carburants - La Météo des Marchés

The market weather report begins by noting the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed inflation at 3.3%, slightly lower than the estimated 3.4% and a significant increase from the previous month's 2.4%. Despite the slight beat on expectations, the speaker emphasizes that this is not necessarily good news due to the substantial jump in inflation over a short period. Market reactions have been relatively calm so far, with the open for trading still some time away. Analysis of options suggests a generally bullish phase, with the market currently in a relatively stable, neutral environment. Yesterday saw considerable rotation across markets, with some assets gaining while others declined. Significant damage was observed in oil-related stocks, but there were also rebounds in leisure and transport sectors, particularly airlines. The overall trend remains bullish, with the VIX (volatility index) at a low point after a month of elevated stress. Ten out of eleven sectors are trading in the green, and market sentiment has shifted from extreme fear to fear, indicating increased confidence among investors. The current narratives include a fragile ceasefire, with negotiations underway in Pakistan. There's also discussion about oil prices, with Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan warning that prolonged oil shocks could reignite inflation and push interest rates higher. The speaker expresses skepticism towards Dimon's pronouncements, viewing him as a strategic communicator whose statements often signal the opposite of his true intentions, thus providing valuable counter-indicators for traders. A key observation is the potential for a turnaround in software stocks, which have reportedly been underperforming. The speaker suggests that when a narrative becomes overly obvious, it can be an opportune moment for contrarian thinking, recalling how ChatGPT recently advised against investing in airlines, only for them to rally shortly after. This suggests a potential for opportunities in software if charts begin to show positive signals. The CPI data is highlighted as the main event of the week, and its impact on market reactions will be closely watched. Option flows indicate a potentially neutral trading day, although the S&P 500 could easily reach 7000, a level that has acted as a magnet for some time and is seen as a significant psychological target for large investors. Looking ahead, the upcoming week will feature earnings reports from major banks. Some bank stocks are showing promising charts, and airline companies continue to perform well. A notable event is the sale of $375,000 worth of shares by the CEO of OD, totaling $26 million. The speaker questions whether this signals panic or a genuine need for funds, reminding that insider selling doesn't always align with the best trading decisions. Economic news, particularly the CPI, was the primary focus for the week, potentially explaining yesterday's neutral market performance. While markets are currently handling inflation well, consumers are expected to bear the brunt of it in their daily lives, which is viewed as a negative development. Despite the inflation concerns, markets have managed to rebound effectively. Morgan Stanley is mentioned as suggesting another metal might outperform gold, which is showing signs of fatigue. The VIX has moved past its range, and the Dollar Index has retreated to the middle of its range. A weaker dollar generally supports stock markets, a strategy that has been successful for a while. The speaker will monitor whether the dollar weakens further or retests previous highs. Volatility has returned to low levels, with dips being bought. The S&P 500 is nearing all-time highs, with a relatively small percentage gain needed to surpass previous records. The speaker speculates on whether this uptrend will continue or if there will be a significant breakout. All-time highs and the 7000 level for the S&P 500 are seen as potential inevitable targets in the coming days or weeks. The Nasdaq is performing slightly less strongly but is awaiting potential catalysts, possibly from Nvidia, which remains within its trading range. Significant option flows yesterday favored Nvidia. In terms of day trading, current levels are above previous analyses, and yesterday's trading was more neutral than anticipated, with a slight positive bias in the evening. The overall movement was small compared to previous candle sizes, indicating a continuation of a sideways trend, but the speaker will observe today's (Friday's) performance. Money is flowing into banks and, interestingly, into Bitcoin miners. While many miners are diversifying into AI, there's a noticeable influx of capital into this sector. Companies like Iris and Cipher are mentioned as receiving substantial investment. Pre-market trading for some of these is positive, with charts showing potential bullish pennants or falling wedges. While Cher is not the strongest Bitcoin miner, H is identified as particularly strong. The speaker finds it intriguing that Bitcoin miners are experiencing such a surge in activity despite Bitcoin itself remaining relatively stagnant over the past three days. This could be an anticipation of a bullish move in Bitcoin. Riot is also showing strength and could break out of its range, indicating that the mining sector has found support. Meta is noted as a significant winner among the Magnificent Seven, and while it has recovered, the next phase is awaited. Nvidia's pre-market performance is not as strong as expected. The speaker took a position in Core Wave yesterday, despite recent insider selling by the CEO. The weekly chart for Core Wave is considered promising, with potential targets identified. The speaker acknowledges that this is not an ideal stock chart, as many are in an uptrend, and Core Wave is currently horizontal, requiring a shift to an uptrend to be more compelling. Looking at the Alpha Terminal, Goldman Sachs shows a probable bid, but the rally seems to have already begun, with the banking sector showing momentum. Entering these positions with existing gaps might be risky, but the banks have moved without waiting. JPMorgan is also mentioned, with a significant gap, suggesting a surprise in the financial services sector. Bitcoin's price action shows positive daily candles, with potential for shorts to be stopped out. Liquidity has accumulated both above and below the current price, suggesting the possibility of moves in either direction. Funding rates on Binance have been negative, indicating a buildup of short positions. However, the speaker notes that many positions remain open, suggesting that those controlling the market are still holding long positions. This, coupled with the interest in Bitcoin miners, suggests potential underlying project development. The speaker personally does not see this as a preferred trading play. The report concludes with a recommendation for Alpha Team for those interested in learning trading and investment principles, highlighting their methodology, support, tools, and coaching. The speaker wishes everyone a good weekend.