Marchés au sommet, pendant que tout s'effondre ? Le paradoxe

The financial and geopolitical news highlights a return of tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, impacting the Strait of Hormuz and causing volatility in oil and energy prices, with crude oil oscillating around the $100 mark. This energy price fluctuation is a direct driver of macroeconomic concerns, specifically a heightened risk of stagflation, as inflation is expected to persist without being hyperinflationary, leading to a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. This situation is felt globally, but with a pronounced impact on Europe and the UK, where low salaries since 2020, reduced consumption, and a decline in citizen welfare are observed. Companies are anticipating massive layoffs, and while US employment figures are not currently alarming, Europe appears fragile with a significantly degraded economic sentiment, notably in the Netherlands, where the ZEW indicator stands at 17.2%. Germany, traditionally a bellwether for the European economy, is showing weakness, with the Dax reflecting this concern. The potential for a boomerang effect from increased energy costs is evident, pressuring industries and already limiting growth to a projected 0.8% in 2026, a figure considered almost negligible. In monetary policy, Kevin Warch has expressed strong confidence in Jerome Powell's leadership at the Fed and emphasized the crucial independence of central banks, contrasting with any potential political manipulation. The market closely monitors US economic data for cues on the trajectory of interest rates, with a possibility of further increases if inflation escalates. Paradoxically, despite geopolitical instability, the tech sector is showing strength, primarily driven by the boom in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and substantial investments, such as Amazon's $25 billion announcement. This resilience occurs within a tense macroeconomic landscape marked by conflicts, energy concerns, and general uncertainty. The markets are currently navigating a phase of correlation between reality and speculation, anticipating either a swift resolution to conflicts or the complete dominance of AI. From a technical analysis perspective, the cryptocurrency market shows potential for short-term upside. The total crypto market cap stands at $2.6 trillion, facing resistance but with the RSI in the weekly chart breaking out of the 42 zone. This suggests a higher probability of the crypto market reaching $2.9 to $3 trillion before a significant downturn. Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim the $78,000 level, battling the 20-day moving average at $77,000. Intermediate Fibonacci levels are at $83,000, with the 100-day moving average at $87,000 and the 50-day moving average at $86,000. The key psychological resistance remains at $100,000. Bitcoin's weekly RSI is also breaking out above 44, and the MACD shows a positive histogram, indicating bullish momentum. The VIX remains stable around 20 points. Regarding commodities, UK oil is under alert, with the situation at the Strait of Hormuz uncertain. US oil is trading around $89 per barrel, experiencing slight pullbacks. The DXY US dollar index is relatively weak, hovering around 98.3 against other currencies, despite the beginning of a new presidential term. US money supply continues to grow significantly, while global liquidity appears more subdued, indicating a stabilization phase. Consumer confidence and farmer sentiment are flagged as problematic. The overall mood is described as somewhat defeated and war-weary, amplified by constant exposure to global events through social media. The S&P 500 is experiencing a pause, with a slight retreat of 0.63% to 7,064 points. The market is questioning its recent upward trend, which was partly driven by anticipation of the Strait of Hormuz opening, an eventuality that remains uncertain. The Nasdaq also saw a minor dip of 0.42%, with no extraordinary movements reported. In precious metals, gold's weekly 20-day moving average is at $4,766, while silver is around $78. Institutional targets for silver are $90 within a year, and for gold, $5,500. While these targets are distant, gold is currently consolidating. Ethereum is approaching a confluence of the 200-day and 20-day moving averages between $2,440 and $2,450. It is also breaking through a polarity zone at D43 on the weekly RSI, with a positive MACD histogram. Companies linked to the crypto industry, such as Coinbase, are struggling to break past their 20-day moving averages, trading around $195. However, the increasing institutional interest in Bitcoin through ETFs and other financial instruments is a significant development, as evidenced by the institutionalization of the crypto domain. This shift is palpable at events like ETHCC and Paris Blockchain Week, signaling a move towards a more regulated and integrated financial landscape. MSCI Inc. in the United States has seen a positive performance, with a 5.40% gain, highlighting the appeal of certain investment strategies. The transcript also touches upon the long-term viability of holding portfolios like Nasdaq, suggesting that payment processing companies like Visa and Mastercard, alongside traditional stock markets, will continue to hold relevance. In European markets, French defense stocks have experienced significant daily pullbacks, with Thales down 6% to 247 euros from a recent high of 271 euros. Thales is currently trading at its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with its lower range between 208 and 212 euros, where the 100-day moving average lies. The 200-week moving average is at 170 euros. In the altcoin market, it remains challenging to find stable ground. Hyperliquid has seen a slight pullback, possibly related to the deployment of predictive markets, although its fundamental impact is unclear. It is currently holding around $40. The transcript notes that there are several significant crypto projects worth attention, particularly from a speculative standpoint, as their fundamental development and research, especially in conjunction with AI, could drive future blockchain value. However, it emphasizes the importance of making sound investment choices, suggesting that Bitcoin, due to its proven track record and resilience, remains a solid and reliable option. Other altcoins like Solana, Chainlink, Tensor, Hyper Liquid, and BNB are mentioned, with BNB's reliance on Binance being a point of caution. Chainlink is highlighted as an example of a speculative opportunity, with potential for a 3x return from its current price of around $10 to $30, while risking a quarter of the investment. This example illustrates a risk management approach. The transcript also discusses significant security breaches in the DeFi space, including a $70 million exploit on Arbitrum via Kelp and a $290 million hack on RSETH, leading to bad debt on AAVE. The Ethereum Foundation has contributed $50 million to AAVE to mitigate the losses. These events raise questions about the security and decentralization of the financial system. The industry is urged to learn from these incidents, as the increasing sophistication of AI could lead to more aggressive cyberattacks in the future.