ภาคผลิตน่าห่วง! ไทยกำลังเผชิญภาวะ ‘Supply Shock’ | THE STANDARD WEALTH

The discussion revolves around Thailand's credit rating outlook, which has improved from negative to stable. This is considered good news, reflecting the current fiscal situation. Dr. Mingkwan Thongphruk, Chief Economist of Buangluang Co., Ltd., explains that a country's credit rating is like a report card, measuring political stability, government treasury, debt-to-GDP ratio, international stability, current account balance, GDP growth, and demographic structure. There are three major credit rating agencies that use various criteria for these measurements. Thailand is currently in the "orange team" based on international standards, indicating strength in reserves and current account balance, largely due to tourism. Singapore, in contrast, is in the "blue-gray" team, having consistently faced fiscal balance issues but still receiving a Triple A rating due to lower financial resources compared to other countries. A good credit rating allows a country to borrow money at lower interest rates, reducing financial costs for the government when issuing bonds and attracting investors. The recent improvement in Thailand's outlook from Moody's is attributed to its international stability and current account balance. Moody's has given the new government time to improve fiscal discipline and political stability, metaphorically issuing a "yellow card" as a warning to maintain good practices. However, not all rating agencies have adjusted Thailand's outlook to stable, indicating that some still perceive weaknesses or "blind spots" that prevent a full restoration of a stable outlook. This suggests the government needs to expedite efforts in fiscal discipline. The transcript highlights that other ASEAN countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have experienced downgrades, with some already having their ratings restored, while others haven't. This underscores the need for Thailand to prove its commitment to fiscal responsibility. Looking ahead, the discussion turns to measures needed to create financial stability. These include increasing government revenue through taxation and reducing expenses. The government has already discussed various tax increases, such as VAT, floating taxes, salt tax, and land taxes, which are expected to be implemented soon. On the expenditure side, there's a focus on "slimming" the budget and increasing efficiency in spending. A key suggestion outside of traditional tax increases is the concept of a Sovereign Wealth Fund, similar to Singapore's. Singapore generates significant revenue from investments through its Sovereign Wealth Fund, contributing to its budget and allowing it to maintain a fiscal surplus. This approach is presented as an alternative to relying solely on tax burdens that might disproportionately affect the middle class. While other countries like Indonesia and Malaysia have faced issues with such funds (e.g., the MDB scandal), Singapore's success is highlighted as a model for increasing government earnings without solely depending on traditional fiscal policies. The current fiscal situation shows that Thailand's expenses continue to exceed income, even before considering additional borrowing. The debt-to-GDP ratio and fiscal budget deficit are interconnected, and the ability of the treasury to pay off debt is a critical concern. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the deficit, pushing it beyond 3%. The transcript also touches upon how neighboring countries are managing costs during the energy crisis. Unlike Thailand, which seems to be exploring further borrowing, countries like Malaysia and Indonesia are focusing on reducing subsidies, limiting oil quotas, and promoting the use of alternative fuels like B50 diesel. The IMF has warned against excessive national budget spending on energy, advocating for cost reduction measures first. Economists question the reasonableness of the government's current priorities, suggesting that market mechanisms should play a greater role, with targeted support for vulnerable groups and structural improvements in energy. Drawing lessons from Singapore, the importance of managing public expectations is emphasized. Singapore's Prime Minister communicated that the current situation is not normal, will be prolonged, and requires collective effort from both the government and the public. This contrasts with a perceived tendency in Thailand to over-glorify government assistance, potentially leading the public to believe that issues are simple and solely the government's responsibility. The discussion concludes by stressing the need for clear, accessible policies with measurable KPIs and efficient spending. While short-term support is necessary, long-term restructuring is crucial. The energy crisis, in particular, affects everyone, from households to businesses and factories. The government is urged to implement segmented policies that target different groups, encouraging energy saving through initiatives like tax credits for businesses that achieve energy reduction goals. Promoting practices like carpooling or working from home, and investing in solar cells, are also suggested as ways to save energy. The government itself should lead by example, as seen in other countries where officials adopt simpler dress codes to signify energy conservation. Ultimately, the call is for transparent policies that clearly outline what actions individuals and businesses need to take to contribute to the country's financial stability. The continuous fiscal deficit, even before and after COVID-19, underscores the urgency of these measures.