7000 SP500 : résistance ou tremplin ? - La Météo des Marchés

The speaker opens by expressing satisfaction with recent market alignment and successful trades, particularly noting a period of high stress where they managed to make profitable long positions. Yesterday was a significant day for the tech sector, with a strong session for the S&P 500, which reached the 7000 target sooner than expected. Top performers included biotech, healthcare, quantum computing, and technology in general, indicating a "risk-on" market environment. The market has moved past previous tensions, such as the D3 d'ormous, and is now very strong. The "despair" regarding hopes for an Iran ceasefire is being integrated, although some still struggle with the current developments. The speaker introduces a theory about market sentiment, which they find amusing if not already known. They also discuss oil volatility, noting that when markets talk about volatility in a sector, it often masks an unwillingness to admit a bearish trend. They suggest that the current oil volatility could signify a rotation out of the energy sector. Regarding individual stocks, Nvidia and Micron Electronics performed exceptionally well yesterday, along with Oracle, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, indicating a massive flow of money into the "Magnificent Seven." The speaker personally bought Microsoft on the lows and hopes for further amplification. Netflix's earnings are due tonight. While it's unlikely to beat estimated results despite increased pricing, the key will be the market's reaction. The speaker missed the low on Netflix, which surged quickly following negotiations for Paramount, even rising when Paramount rejected an offer. Although it's a missed entry on a strong American stock, the speaker won't chase it. Disney is also performing well since March 27th, though it's in a range rather than an uptrend like Netflix was before its significant dip and subsequent recovery. The speaker questions whether Disney is benefiting from a sectoral advantage in streaming platforms. In contrast, the space sector, particularly stocks like Fly and RKLB (popular on Reddit), had a rough day yesterday, with Fly down 8%. ASTS also saw a significant drop. This suggests that the current market rally might be financed by selling off certain sectors, with space taking a hit. The speaker emphasizes the importance of being on the right side of sector rotation. Upcoming earnings include Google on April 22nd and Taiwan Semiconductor today. The speaker notes that the optimal entry for Taiwan Semiconductor was earlier, and now it's too late to enter without buying into resistance, which they generally avoid despite sometimes doing it. Economically, there isn't much new, with yesterday's PPI being the main event, showing a positive reaction during the American session. The FOMC meeting is in 14 days, with 7 out of 14 voters expecting no change in rates, and 7 expecting a change in 2026. It's highly probable there will be no change at the upcoming FOMC. The International Energy Agency has lowered its oil demand growth forecasts, indicating a shift from previous concerns about scarcity and high prices. Macro indicators show the DXY (Dollar Index) in a "No Man's Land" zone. The VIX (volatility index) is below 20, suggesting that the phase of high stress is over, making it a good time to buy the dips. The S&P 500 hitting 7000 raises a question: will retail investors, who were in disbelief yesterday, try to chase the missed gains? Often, when markets move quickly, people fight the trend, and then chase it once it's behind them, driven by sentiment following price. The speaker believes the 7000 target, a "magnet level," has been reached, and while momentum could carry it higher, it might have been a target for "big fish" to hit quickly, leaving many on the sidelines. If there's aggressive long positioning today based on yesterday's rally, the speaker anticipates a red or choppy session. The NASDAQ still has some room to reach an All-Time High (ATH), and the S&P 500 is also close. The speaker notes widespread confusion and questioning ("Why is it going up?") among the public, who struggle to rationalize the market's bullishness amidst global economic concerns and conflicts. This difficulty stems from market condition changes being hard for people to adapt to. The speaker believes a narrative will eventually emerge to explain the rally (e.g., pricing in inflation decrease, rate cuts, or a Fed chairman change), which the public will then embrace. They point out that JP Morgan only announced being bullish on indices yesterday, implying they likely started buying much earlier. The speaker describes markets as a "blood sport" where "all shots are allowed," including "low blows" and "sand in the eyes." Knowing these rules and having protective gear (like goggles and a cup) is essential. For day trading, the speaker doesn't expect much, anticipating navigation around the 7000 level for the S&P 500. However, a significant factor is Nvidia, which is potentially very bullish. If Nvidia breaks its resistance, the next target is 212, which could pull the entire market, especially the NASDAQ, higher. Today's session will largely depend on Nvidia's reaction at this resistance level. Microsoft is also showing strength in pre-market. Regarding Bitcoin, sentiment is still very low, leading the speaker to wonder if it's a "bear trap." They observe a clear rejection of resistance, which range traders likely embraced, expecting a continued decline. However, the size of yesterday's candle is "treacherous," and the speaker speculates it might be a bear trap designed to liquidate short positions and push prices higher, which would benefit their Polymarket play for April. Profit-taking and position closures were observed on Okex and Binance. While there were significant spot sales during Bitcoin's climb, these sellers were "crushed," and yesterday saw either market buys on the spot or FOMO, followed by deflation. The speaker notes that crypto sentiment drops very quickly on small movements, with people losing faith easily. However, April is historically a good month for crypto. Funding rates are negative in the crypto space, indicating either spot pressure or over-hyped short positions. The speaker concludes by recommending alphaatam.fr for autonomous trading and investment education, emphasizing that they don't rely on external analyses or AI. They will return tomorrow.