Al final CAERÁN y estaremos ahí para comprar. ¡Qué sepan que lo sabemos! José Luis Cava

Good morning from Madrid. Today, I'll discuss three critical points, especially relevant for young people. First, many investors are shifting savings to German public debt due to the French sovereign debt crisis. However, Germany's fiscal situation is concerning. The OECD estimates Germany's primary deficit will reach 3.1% of GDP by 2027, equating to about 170 billion euros, excluding interest. Including interest, the total deficit could hit 200 billion euros, or 3.5% of German GDP. No political party is likely to implement the necessary 3.5% fiscal adjustment to make this sustainable, nor will France undertake a 5% adjustment. This suggests the European Central Bank will likely print money to buy French and German public debt. Second, drawing lessons from a German businessman after World War I, Hugo, whose last name might be Stein or Seine. The Treaty of Versailles imposed astronomical war reparations on Germany, which Keynes argued were mathematically impossible and would hinder Europe's growth. The German government resorted to printing money, leading to hyperinflation. While most citizens kept their savings in marks, losing purchasing power, Hugo borrowed marks and invested in real assets like coal mines and companies, becoming wealthy. However, his companies later went bankrupt due to mismanagement and a subsequent deflationary process. The lesson for today is to consider gold and Bitcoin as central banks will continue printing money, boosting their long-term value despite short-term volatility. Also, avoid cyclical sectors during deflationary periods. I prefer investing in the most important U.S. companies (S&P 500) over European ones, as the U.S. is prioritizing AI, economic growth, and is in a trade war with China, unlike Europe's fiscal disaster. Third, the Financial Times reported an increase in CDS prices and trading volume for AI hyperscalers, indicating "strong hands" are buying default protection. The article, however, misses why hyperscaler stocks aren't falling. I believe these entities are hedging with CDS instead of put options to artificially support stock prices before a sharp drop, possibly after the upcoming U.S. elections. The U.S. government, potentially following a Chinese model, may want hyperscaler stocks to fall to establish a strategic fund with shares of these companies. This strategy, exemplified by Anthropic donating shares and Donald Trump's proposed fund for American company shares, suggests they are waiting for the elections to pass before allowing a significant market correction.