Bitcoin haussier : les proxys crypto confirment-ils le signal ? - La Météo des Marchés

The speaker begins by discussing a prolonged ceasefire initiated by Trump, which allowed for a traditional "taco trade," essentially a tactic to extend deadlines and maintain leverage for negotiations. This announcement led to market reactions, with Bitcoin notably reaching $78,000, prompting a discussion on whether this indicates a sustained crypto rally or just temporary fluctuations. The past week has seen significant attention on Bitcoin due to interesting chart patterns. The speaker observes a capitulation among influencers on platforms like Twitter and YouTube, with many disappearing. This coincides with particularly "usable" price action in the crypto market, suggesting a shift in sentiment. The market is described as "virgin," potentially ripe for significant movements, which the speaker intends to analyze. Before diving into crypto, the speaker emphasizes the ongoing importance of monitoring the US-Iran situation, which continues to be a source of market volatility. While the amplitude of these spasms isn't as severe as previous major crashes, news from this geopolitical front consistently causes minor market fluctuations. The news itself is often contradictory, with reports of a ceasefire followed by an attack in the Strait of Hormuz. These conflicting narratives, while not necessarily causing panic, are noted as perturbing investors more than directly impacting market prices. The speaker advises caution regarding investment positions, considering whether to hold or retreat, as the overall trend has appeared rather bullish. Moving to the Alpha Terminal, the speaker discusses Kevin Warsh, a potential appointee to the Federal Reserve. Warsh has publicly declared his independence from Trump, stating he will not be a "puppet." However, the speaker notes Warsh's appointment was influenced by Trump and that the Fed itself appears divided. For instance, 12 Fed members anticipate interest rate cuts in 2026, contradicting the Fed's own projection of no cuts. The speaker highlights the low probability of immediate rate cuts at the next meeting. This potential shift in Fed policy is seen as significant, especially with a new Sherman, and even though Warsh claims independence, his appointment by Trump suggests a move towards a more dovish stance. Trump's consistent criticism of Powell, whom he deems "stupid," implies a desire for aggressive rate cuts to boost the economy. The speaker anticipates potential changes in Fed probabilities as new appointments take hold. The discussion then shifts to cryptocurrencies. The speaker announces a two-week vacation, during which the "Gabby Holiday Pattern" is expected. Historically, crypto markets have performed well when the speaker is on vacation. The speaker notes the significant rallies in crypto miners last week, with stocks like Riot and Mara seeing gains over 30%, and some even reaching 50%. Hut is also mentioned as having anticipated these moves. The speaker points out that while crypto has been a frequent topic, these rallies were preceded by signals suggesting either preparation for a major Bitcoin rally or anticipation from Wall Street. MicroStrategy, considered a key proxy for Bitcoin's health, showed resilience during a generally red market session, with only a minor drop compared to previous significant declines. This suggests Wall Street's continued motivation, as MicroStrategy typically reacts quickly and follows upward trends. The stock's high short interest further fuels this observation. A 6% pre-market increase in MicroStrategy could signal Bitcoin's confirmation of its upward movement. Analyzing Bitcoin's price action, the speaker highlights the "amazing" weekly chart, indicating that Bitcoin has "all approved." The recent movement is described as a "bear trap," with a "magnificent" weekly structure that is rarely seen but historically powerful when it occurs. The speaker believes this might be the macro bottom for Bitcoin, though acknowledges the possibility of minor dips or "fuckery." The current outlook is positive for significant rallies. Ethereum is presented as performing similarly to Bitcoin, with most altcoins mirroring its pattern. However, the speaker notes that while Ethereum shows slight outperformance, caution is advised regarding altcoins. When FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) arrives, Bitcoin ETFs are expected to exert significant upward pressure. Altcoins might see larger short-term gains but will lack ETF support, potentially leading to pump-and-dump scenarios or sharp declines. Therefore, careful selection is crucial, focusing on altcoins that are outperforming Bitcoin against USDT, and more importantly, against BTC itself. Pengu is cited as an example of an altcoin with a strong weekly bottom on long-term support and high upside potential, even if its immediate performance against USDT is still developing. Regarding derivatives, the speaker observes high open interest, which has rallied with a push in open interest. This suggests a derivative-driven movement, with potential for profit-taking. The speaker questions whether this movement is driven by manipulators anticipating future events or by exploiting market conditions to drive prices higher. The high volume of derivatives is noted. Funding rates are high in the Binance zone, indicating a shift, but the average funding rate across platforms like Coinglass remains low, suggesting a lack of widespread euphoria. Even on Hyperliquid, the speaker notes that the reporting of gains and losses doesn't indicate extreme euphoria. The market is described as "super liquid," making it an interesting place to observe. The movement is confirmed by proxies like Coinbase, which is also signaling a bottom. The speaker reiterates that this has been a good time to be in crypto, coinciding with their vacation and the expected "Gabby Holiday Pattern." The speaker concludes by encouraging viewers to like the video, leave comments, and subscribe to the channel. They then promote "Alpha Team," a service designed to help traders structure their thoughts, analyses, create plans, discover strategies, and strengthen their mindset. This includes tools like a training tool, an AI-assisted journal, the Alpha Terminal, and a "coach" for mindset assistance during stressful trading moments. The speaker shares a personal anecdote about avoiding an "all-in" decision, emphasizing measured trading and taking breaks. The video ends with a motivational message and a musical outro.