"La façon qu'a Trump de fournir un récit permanent de victoire s'est heurtée à la réalité"

The ongoing negotiations are highly significant, encompassing various critical aspects. These include the future of the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on global economic life. Lebanon's reintegration into these discussions is also a crucial development, especially since it was initially excluded. The future of G.D. Vance, the President of the United States, is also tied to these negotiations; a successful, lasting agreement could boost his campaign to succeed Donald Trump. Beyond these, China's role is highlighted as a significant, though often unspoken, factor. China has reportedly pushed Iran to accept these negotiations, indicating its strategic interest, particularly given its perception of Donald Trump's effectiveness and potential negative outcomes for the West. The overall situation involves numerous parallel challenges and forces, making these negotiations extremely interesting to follow. Donald Trump is attempting to control the narrative, even from a distance. He continues to promise total annihilation to Iran while simultaneously trying to manage the public perception of his efforts without allied help. This creates a difficult situation for Vance, who is negotiating while Trump makes announcements that may contradict or complicate his efforts. Trump's usual strategy of presenting a continuous stream of victories has recently met with reality, as he hasn't achieved all his initial objectives, such as regime change in Iran. He now seeks to regain control of the issue triumphantly due to upcoming mid-term elections in six or seven months. These elections could see Democrats gain control of Congress or even the Senate. Trump understands he cannot face these elections with high gas prices and strong unpopularity. Therefore, he needs a peace agreement, but only on his terms, as he cannot afford to "lose face." This explains his temptation to intervene even while Vance is negotiating, creating a challenging dynamic for reaching an agreement.