
HOLY MOLY TRUMP **JUST** TACO'D AGAIN!!!
Audio Summary
AI Summary
Today's "Taco Tuesday" saw another "Donald Trump taco" with predictable market movements. Despite initial red, bullish economic drivers are keeping the market up. The NASDAQ 100 QQQ's only ended down 18 basis points. A new price target was set for the NASDAQ 100, with QQQ's expected to reach 182-184 and Intel to rocket past 100. Intel closed at $108, then traded at $113 in after-hours, an 8% intraday jump from the call.
Donald Trump's "Operation Epic Fury" concluded to avoid triggering the War Powers Resolution, transitioning to "Project Freedom." This new project involved a semi-permeable blockade, which angered Iran, leading to a swift intervention by Pakistan. Pakistan pushed for a non-permeable blockade, urging Iran to cease cruise missile shipments and the US not to retaliate, as the incident didn't meet the threshold for an attack on US warships. This diplomatic maneuvering suggests a deal is close, as Trump aims to keep markets buoyant.
The booming markets are masking underlying economic issues. Lower and middle-income Americans are struggling, with credit card charge-offs up 20 basis points in 30 days, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. However, wealthier individuals exposed to stocks and real estate are thriving.
The current economic landscape is characterized by a "10-year cycle" that doesn't directly benefit consumers. A chart illustrates that while the consumer was a massive GDP contributor in early 2024, artificial intelligence (AI) has since dominated. AI is now driving GDP, with consumer spending still strong, bringing annualized GDP close to 3%. Other recovering sectors, like residential fixed investment, contribute to bullish GDP numbers and institutional positioning that isn't overleveraged or bearish.
The 10-year cycle begins with an "AI buildout" phase (2023-2028), marked by the Fed holding rates, inflationary spending, and growth in semiconductors, construction, and hardware. This transitions into a deflationary commoditization phase as AI becomes fully integrated into corporations. Currently, only 19.8% of corporations utilize AI, an "insane" figure expected to reach 23% in six months, presenting a significant opportunity. AI capex is projected to boom to $1.1 trillion next year.
The market's biggest threat is a crash, which Donald Trump will actively prevent until January 2029. His market-propping actions mitigate the pain of charge-offs, tariffs, and struggling consumers. Institutional analysts currently see no correlation between AI and job losses, as AI-driven job creation, particularly in construction, offsets any losses. The current "hardware cycle" is robust, further fueled by SpaceX. This bullish outlook on hardware, as predicted, continues to be supported by evidence, with companies like SanDisk and AMD smashing earnings. While some highly valued companies are growing into their valuations, a 30% stop-loss is advised for substantial gains to mitigate potential volatility, such as Iran suddenly announcing nuclear weapons.