Bitcoin prêt à exploser ?

The market is showing a mixed picture on Tuesday, May 5, 2026. The VIX, an index of volatility for the S&P 500, is up 8% in the last 24 hours, but this is not considered an extreme move. Bond yields are also on the rise, with the 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year rates increasing between 1.70% and 1.00%. However, the 20-year and 30-year bonds are both above 5%. This divergence suggests a market experiencing a form of schizophrenia, with one side driven by the AI, tech, and data center economy, and the other by the "normal" economy, which comprises about 90% of other companies. This latter group is showing signs of concern, particularly with oil prices remaining elevated. WTI crude is at $113.60 per barrel, and WTI is around $104.30. Sustained prices above $100 per barrel are problematic and are expected to have at least inflationary implications in the coming quarters. If the situation persists, a recession could emerge in the longer term. The US dollar is currently weak, trading below 100 on the DXY index. This weakness has contributed to the strong performance of the S&P 500 and, notably, the Nasdaq. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has seen a significant rally in the past four weeks, climbing from 22,338 to nearly 28,000 points, a gain of over 20%. Investors who capitalized on this month-long rebound have likely achieved their annual returns. In Europe, the Euro Stoxx 600 is battling the 20-week moving average. The German DAX is hovering just below 24,000 points, near a confluence of its 50-day and 20-day moving averages. The French CAC 40 closed yesterday below 8,000 points and is approaching a support level around 7,920 points, which coincides with its 50-day moving average. France's market, from a speculative standpoint, is largely range-bound. Sector rotations are occurring, but sectors that were previously strong, such as luxury goods, are currently stagnant. Gold prices are experiencing a degradation, which is seen as a logical consolidation after the strong rally since February 2024, when gold broke through the $2,000 per ounce mark and reached $2,056. Silver is also trading below its 20-day moving average at $27.73. This consolidation is viewed as potentially beneficial for precious metals in the long term, helping to reset oscillators and filter out some market participants. The cryptocurrency market has seen a double bottom formation for both the total crypto market cap and Bitcoin. However, there remains some pessimism about whether this marks the final low. While oscillators suggest it could be, the broader economic reality, particularly in the US for tech, might catch up sooner than expected. Despite this, the crypto market is currently positive, though still far from previous all-time highs. A significant development is the validation of breaking through the $2.6 trillion mark for the total crypto market cap. The current week's closing price will be a key indicator, but the trend appears positive. The next technical target is between $2.9 trillion and $3 trillion. For Bitcoin, the price has crossed the $76,000 to $78,000 zone and is validating the $80,000 level. A previous wick in November 2025 reached $80,000 to $81,000. The next targets could be $84,000, followed by the 100-week moving average, which is flat around $88,000, and the 50-week moving average, currently near $95,000. The question remains whether Bitcoin has enough momentum for further gains after several consecutive weeks of increases. The "bottom box" strategy, extended to late 2026, suggests that the final low could occur around the fall, potentially influenced by past cycles, timing, and mid-term elections. The market has already touched $60,000, nearing the 200-week moving average in February 2026. A subsequent double-bottom formation is observed. Comparing this cycle to the previous one, there's a question of whether we are repeating a pattern where a double bottom was followed by a failure to break the 50-week moving average and a subsequent crash, or if this is a final bottoming phase. The previous cycle in 2022 involved significant events like FTX and Terra, leading to a 77% decline in Bitcoin. The current cycle's 50% drawdown is being assessed to see if it's sufficient to remove weaker hands from the market. The speaker expresses a degree of skepticism, attributing it to accumulated experience in highly speculative and volatile markets. The current market environment, characterized by extreme deviations from standard deviations since 2020 due to quantitative easing and its consequences, is disorienting even for experienced traders who witnessed the dot-com bubble. The persistent high oil prices and inflation suggest an economy that should be slowing down, potentially entering a stagflationary scenario. This would have widespread market implications. In contrast, the AI sector continues its strong performance with consistently positive quarterly results. However, any disruption to this well-oiled machine could have significant consequences, akin to a rocket exploding mid-flight. While the hope is for continued market uptrends, the dissonance between tech/AI and the rest of the market is notable. For Bitcoin, this divergence might provide more room for growth, potentially reaching $85,000 to $100,000. The adage "sell in May and go away" has a historical track record in the stock market, but its applicability to crypto, especially in 2025, is uncertain. The current technical setup with a validated double bottom suggests potential upside for Bitcoin before summer. Future movements will be data-dependent, with a new Fed Chair, Kevin Warch, at the helm. For Ethereum (ETH/USDT), the price is near the 20-day moving average. Breaking through $2,463 (the 200-day moving average) is a key target, with current prices around $2,380. Ethereum is following Bitcoin's lead, though Bitcoin has shown stronger weekly and monthly performance. Key levels for Ethereum are $1,400 and a pivot zone between $1,700-$1,750 and $2,150. If the current formation resolves as an ascending right-angled triangle, the next few years could be extraordinary for Ethereum, provided Bitcoin also experiences a significant rally. The speaker expresses some doubt about the possibility of an extreme Bitcoin rally, especially considering the massive valuations of companies like Nvidia, which are double the entire crypto market capitalization. The historical tendency of Wall Street to target prominent assets is also a consideration, similar to what happened with gold. A scenario where countries start buying Bitcoin for sovereignty or reserve purposes could lead to extraordinary gains, but currently, given the advancements in AI, the speaker leans towards caution regarding blockchain's future. The potential for AI and blockchain to mutually enhance each other is acknowledged, with AI potentially accelerating blockchain development or requiring blockchain for monetary transactions between AI agents. The future landscape in 5-10 years is uncertain, but a profound shift is anticipated, possibly resembling science fiction scenarios. The speaker advocates for a risk-taking approach, embracing the current industrial or human revolution, but also emphasizes the importance of diversification across sectors, geographies, and sovereignty. The speaker notes that young investors in their early twenties investing in the Nasdaq online might see significant returns in 20-30 years, but they could also experience substantial losses, similar to the dot-com bubble. The chronic uncertainty characterizing markets is a constant, and it's important to seek volatility and returns rather than remaining inactive. Circle is performing well, up 120% to $120, driven by positive news, including European and French regulatory approval (MiCA). A breakout above $150-$