War Is Here. This Is Exactly What I'm Buying And Selling.

The current global economic landscape is facing significant turbulence due to escalating military tensions in the Middle East. According to the transcript, more than 150 tankers are currently stalled outside the Strait of Hormuz because Iran has effectively shut down over 20% of the global oil supply. This blockade extends beyond crude oil, impacting seaborne oil, global liquefied natural gas (LNG), and fertilizer trades. The ripple effects are being felt across dozens of sectors worldwide, with oil prices surging from the $60–$70 range to as high as $120 per barrel. This instability stems from events in late February, when the US and Israel reportedly attacked Iran, leading to Iranian missile retaliation and the subsequent closure of the Strait. Economists estimate the cost of this conflict has already exceeded $10 billion. While the S&P 500 is currently "bleeding" and panic is widespread, the transcript notes that the actual market dip is a relatively moderate 5%. Some of this decline is also attributed to fluctuations in the AI sector rather than the conflict alone. Despite the immediate fear, historical data offers a more optimistic perspective. In 19 out of 20 military conflicts since World War II, markets have recovered in weeks rather than years. For instance, the market recovery following the Iraq War took only 16 days, while World War II took 30 days, the Russia-Ukraine war 60 days, and the Korean War 90 days. Even the Gulf War, which had a longer recovery period, saw markets bounce back in 135 days. Historically, the maximum recovery time for these major conflicts is less than six months. In terms of investment strategy, the speaker emphasizes the importance of maintaining "dry powder" or cash reserves to "buy the dip" if the situation escalates. Stablecoins are highlighted as a useful tool for this, as they allow investors to remain liquid while earning yields of 5% to 15% through DeFi markets while waiting for the right entry point. Gold remains a standout performer, often referred to as the "ultimate war hedge." Central banks are currently purchasing over a thousand tons of gold annually, and the asset has seen euphoric growth over the last year. Similarly, energy and oil markets are performing well, with energy stocks and indices seeing massive year-to-date gains. Within the equities market, the "Mag 7" (large-cap tech companies like Google and Amazon) are viewed as safer, more resistant options because they function almost like indices themselves. In the cryptocurrency space, Bitcoin has shown resilience, rising 20% from $60,000 to $75,000 in the last month. The transcript also mentions a new instrument called "Stretch," associated with Michael Saylor, which aims to reduce volatility while offering an 11% dividend yield. Defense stocks are another sector that typically outperforms the S&P 500 during wartime, though the speaker notes that investors usually need to be exposed to them before the conflict starts to maximize gains. Conversely, several sectors are being "crushed" by the current climate. Airline, shipping, and cruise ship companies are suffering due to rising energy costs, and consumer stocks are being sold off for the same reason. Emerging markets are also seeing a sell-off as investors shift to a "risk-off" mindset. The speaker advises against high-risk speculation during this time, specifically mentioning penny stocks, low-cap altcoins without fundamentals, and assets that do not earn revenue. Instead, the focus should be on "hardcore assets" and a strategy of dollar-cost averaging (DCA) into major indices like the S&P 500. The ultimate conclusion is that while drawdowns are stressful, the greatest risk is being unallocated when the inevitable post-war market recovery occurs, as those upward moves are often drastic and rapid.