MSTR & IBIT snag nearly 10 Yrs of Supply (Why $120K is Next) 🚀

This episode of "Bitcoin and Micro Strategy Day" dives deep into the current state of Bitcoin, highlighting significant institutional adoption, the potential impact of AI and deflation, and the increasing scarcity of the cryptocurrency. The speaker begins by noting Bitcoin's 12% rise in April, historically a strong month. While acknowledging traditional technical analysis indicators, the primary focus is on money flow. The put-call ratio in options markets is exceptionally bullish at 0.57, with significant bets placed on Bitcoin reaching $120,000 and even $250,000 by Christmas. This indicates a strong conviction for upward price movement. A key theme explored is the evolving narrative around Bitcoin as an inflation hedge. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a correlation with deflationary environments, performing well when inflation is low and declining during inflationary periods. However, the speaker posits that recent inflationary pressures in 2022-2024, exacerbated by potential oil crises, have created a different dynamic. The introduction of AI is presented as a deflationary force, capable of drastically reducing the cost of knowledge and goods, potentially leading to a new wave of deflation. This deflationary environment, coupled with the principle of Jevons paradox (where increased efficiency and lower costs lead to increased demand), is expected to drive demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin. The speaker emphasizes the convergence of AI and crypto, not just as a place for AI profits to be stored, but as a fundamental shift driven by the age of AGI (Artificial General Intelligence). In an era of abundance created by AGI, scarcity becomes paramount. This principle, when applied to Bitcoin, suggests that as AI drives down costs in other sectors, the demand for scarcity, represented by Bitcoin, will increase. This shift in economic principles is also offered as an explanation for the "muted" bull market of the past, which occurred during a prolonged inflationary period. The transcript then shifts to the monumental accumulation of Bitcoin by major players. MicroStrategy has now surpassed BlackRock in Bitcoin holdings, with a staggering 815,000 BTC. MicroStrategy's recent funding for these purchases came primarily from selling shares of its stock (STRC), rather than diluting its common stock (MSTR), a significant shift that is seen as a "financial weapon." This strategy is described as "saticretion," where holding MicroStrategy shares effectively increases one's Bitcoin holdings over time without direct Bitcoin purchases. The net asset value (NAV) premium for MicroStrategy has also turned positive, indicating its market price is now at or above the value of its underlying Bitcoin holdings. The combined demand from Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy is highlighted as a major factor in Bitcoin's scarcity. Since the inception of the ETFs, they have accumulated 1.646 million Bitcoin, with a net inflow of 27,000 BTC in the past week alone, and an average daily addition of 1,800 BTC. MicroStrategy is adding over 1,000 BTC per day. Together, these two entities are absorbing nearly 3,000 BTC daily, far exceeding the 450 BTC mined per day. This, coupled with the drying up of sales from long-term holders, points towards an impending supply crunch. The entry of other major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs, Schwab, and Morgan Stanley into the Bitcoin space is also discussed. Schwab, with its vast customer base and assets under management, is now actively recommending Bitcoin allocations in its investment strategies, even suggesting up to 20% for aggressive investors. This is a significant endorsement, signaling mainstream acceptance and integration of Bitcoin into traditional investment portfolios, with the speaker noting that the traditional 60/40 bond portfolio is considered "dead" by some, and Bitcoin is being positioned as a crucial component of modern portfolios. The transcript also touches upon regulatory developments, such as the UK allowing borrowing against crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum, a strategy often employed by the wealthy to manage taxes. The approaching Bitcoin halving is mentioned, with the issuance rate set to halve again, further increasing scarcity. The speaker reiterates that the current accumulation pace by major players, combined with future supply reductions, makes Bitcoin the "scarcest thing I've ever seen in my life." Finally, the speaker outlines a new weekly content schedule, dedicating Mondays to Bitcoin and MicroStrategy, Tuesdays to Octa, Wednesdays to 21 Charts and Tesla earnings, Thursdays to AI impact, and Fridays to "Fire" talks. Weekends are reserved for Q&A. The overall tone is one of excitement and conviction about the future of Bitcoin, driven by institutional adoption, technological advancements like AI, and the fundamental scarcity of the asset.