งานไม่มั่นคง ค่าครองชีพพุ่ง ดัชนีเชื่อมั่นผู้บริโภคลดต่ำสุดรอบ 8 เดือน | Morning Wealth 12 พ.ค. 69

The program begins by discussing international issues, particularly China's electric vehicle (EV) market and its expected capture of 20% of the European car market in the near future. The segment also touches upon the ongoing deal with Iran, which Donald Trump has dismissed as unsatisfactory, highlighting the increasing uncertainty in global affairs. Domestically, the consumer confidence index in Thailand has shown a continuous decline across all categories for the second consecutive month in April, reaching an 8-month low. This decline is largely attributed to the conflict between Iran and the US/Israel, which has impacted global energy prices, production costs, transportation costs, and the cost of living. The current employment index is at its lowest in 40 months, indicating instability in careers. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has lowered its forecast for Thailand's economic growth in 2026 to just 1.5%, reflecting a slower-than-expected recovery. Positive factors supporting the economy include the tourism sector, especially during the Songkran festival, which saw an influx of Chinese tourists. Exports have also expanded significantly by 18.67%. However, Thailand's trade confidence index has declined, with businesses expressing concerns about the current situation and the coming month, particularly regarding liquidity and debt. Proposed tax policy adjustments, such as increasing VAT from 7% to 10%, are also a concern. Despite the challenges, there is some hope. Government measures, such as assistance for fragile industries (transportation, industrial, fisheries, agriculture) and the "Thailand Helps Thai Plus" project, are expected to stabilize the situation. The Thai Chamber of Commerce anticipates that registrations for these measures will begin in May, with spending starting in June, potentially leading to a gradual recovery in consumer and business confidence. If the oil price war eases and prices remain controlled, the economy could see clearer signs of recovery in the late third to early fourth quarter, with GDP potentially reaching 1.5-2%. Professor Thanawat Polwichai commented on the government's emergency decree to borrow 400 billion baht to address the energy crisis. While the government deems it urgent, the opposition argues it is not. The effectiveness and speed of results from this expenditure are key considerations. The decree has been published in the Royal Gazette, but the opposition has petitioned the Constitutional Court, arguing it violates Article 172 of the Constitution. The Ministry of Finance maintains the decree is legally binding and justified by the risk of a cost of living and financial crisis due to global inflation. The public debt planning office will submit a proposal to the Cabinet next week, with the first round of loan applications expected to be 200 billion baht. The government is also preparing to issue savings bonds with monthly rental income under the "Savings Plus" project to raise funds. The "Thai Helps Thai Plus" project, merging the Half-Price Plus project and the state welfare card, is scheduled for a ministerial meeting on May 19th, with registration opening on May 25th and spending starting on June 1st. The Ministry of Commerce, through Deputy Prime Minister and Minister Suphajee Suthamphan, supports using the 400 billion baht emergency decree budget for the "Thai Helps Thai" project. This project aims to support SM and community products, establish sales points in collaboration with the Ministry of Interior, and utilize online platforms to distribute inexpensive consumer goods nationwide, lowering the cost of living. The Ministry of Commerce is also monitoring inflation and controlling prices of raw materials. Regarding trade negotiations between Thailand and the United States, the Ministry of Commerce is accelerating discussions to obtain an Agreement on Reciprocal Trade (ART). Thailand has clarified its stance on issues like forced labor and is addressing the US Section 301 clause. Thailand has a significant trade surplus with the US, with 30% of the surplus coming from US companies invested in Thailand and 20% from local companies. The program then shifts back to international affairs, focusing on the deteriorating situation between the US and Iran. Donald Trump stated that a peace agreement is in critical condition, likening Iran's 14-point offer to "trash" and giving it only a 1% chance of success. Iranian authorities have threatened retaliation against aggressors and insist the US accept their terms. Trump believes Iran is untrustworthy, having changed its mind multiple times in past negotiations. Iran's Parliament Speaker, Mohammad Qlibara, confirmed the military is ready to teach a lesson to aggressors, emphasizing that the US has no choice but to accept the 14 points. Sources close to Iranian negotiations claim their proposals do not include exporting nuclear enhancement products, contradicting US media reports. Negotiations are at a standstill, with a high risk of reigniting the war if miscalculations occur. Trump's upcoming meeting with Xi Jinping in Beijing will prioritize trade negotiations over the Iran issue. Trump aims to push for a trade agreement and manage the relationship between the two largest economies. The Iran issue is important because China buys large quantities of oil from Iran. The US blockade of Iranian ports has contributed to the energy crisis and declining global fuel reserves, putting pressure on Trump to end the war. Trump is also trying to pressure Xi Jinping regarding China's stance towards Iran, despite their "very good" personal relationship. Satellite imagery from Europe, compiled by Bloomberg, indicates a shutdown of oil exports from Iran's Karak Island, a major oil export port. No large oil tankers have been docked there for several days, the longest period of vacancy since the war began. This standstill in oil transfer operations puts pressure on Iran's remaining oil storage facilities, potentially forcing them to halt production and further increasing global oil prices, which remain above $100 a barrel. The discussion returns to Chinese EVs, which are rapidly gaining market share in Europe despite import restrictions and taxes. JP Morgan forecasts that Chinese cars could account for 20% of the European market by 2028, taking market share from existing European and foreign manufacturers. This growth is driven by China's diverse product range, outstanding technology, and government support for the EV sector. Chinese manufacturers like BYD are becoming leaders in EV technology, offering advanced features like digital displays and built-in refrigerators, attracting consumers away from traditional petroleum cars. Despite import taxes from the EU (30% for EVs, 10% for hybrids) and higher transportation and marketing costs, Chinese manufacturers are still generating better profits in Europe than their competitors. The trade war between the US and Israel and attacks on Iran have caused crude oil prices to surge, further pushing European consumers towards EVs. MC and Company predict that by 2030, five Chinese car manufacturers could be in the top 10 globally. The program also addresses domestic issues, including a proposed increase in the Passenger Service Charge (PSC) at airports from 700 baht to 1,120 baht, effective June 20th. Additionally, the Revenue Department is studying a proposal to levy a 1,000 baht tax on outbound travel. The Thai Tourism Business Association (ATTA) and the Thai Hotel Association oppose these measures, arguing they are ill-timed and burden tourists, especially the low-cost segment. They propose alternative measures like budget allocation for national filming, the "Travel Thailand" project with travel subsidies, and a temporary halt to the travel tax until the situation improves. Critics argue that such taxes could deter Thais from traveling abroad, reducing airline load factors and impacting the country's overall tourism revenue. They suggest the government focus on attracting high-quality tourists and improving service quality at airports. The program then delves into the domestic money and capital markets, specifically the case of Gulf Holding Thailand Co., Ltd. acquiring shares in Minor International Public Company Limited (Mint). Gulf Holding Thailand Co., Ltd. is listed as the 16th largest shareholder of Mint. Yupapin Wangwiwat, CEO of Gulf Company Development, clarified that this investment is part of Ms. Sarath Ratanawadee's personal portfolio, who is a major shareholder of Gulf, and not a strategic investment by Gulf itself. Gulf Holding is a private company established by Mr. Sarath. Gulf's previous investments in financial institutions like KBank were primarily for dividends, with no plans for further acquisition due to regulatory limitations. Gulf is collaborating with allies to establish a branchless commercial bank (Virtual B), aiming to open services in June, aligning with the central bank's timeframe. Gulf plans to focus on the energy business, especially renewable energy, and has established an office in London to seek new investment opportunities in the UK and Europe. Suwat Sinthong's assets, Managing Director of Bok Securities Company, provided an analysis of Gulf Holding's investment in Mint. He noted that Gulf has a history of acquiring shares in various companies, like KBank and Advanced Info Service (ADVANC), for strategic and financial reasons. He highlighted that while Gulf denies a strategic move, the investment in Mint is significant as Mint is a growing business in Thailand's tourism sector, operating hotels (80% of revenue) and restaurants (20% of revenue) in 57 countries. Suwat explained that Gulf, with its focus on electricity and telecommunications (new generation necessities), and Mint, focusing on food and shelter (old generation necessities), represent a synergy. He believes that Gulf can leverage Mint's global network to expand its own businesses, as all businesses today require electricity, telecom, AI, and technology. He also pointed out that while Gulf's profits are typically stable, Mint's profits are seasonal and highly volatile due to external factors like wars and pandemics, making it a high-risk but high-growth opportunity. The investment could be a "test the water" approach to learn about Mint's strengths in expanding globally and adapting to volatility. From an investor's perspective, Suwat recommends investing in both Gulf and Mint as they represent essential industries (old and new world necessities) with strong, adaptable management. He views them as long-term investments suitable for future generations, comparing them to established companies like CP Group. He acknowledged the risks: Gulf faces risks related to concessions and changing technology in renewable energy, while Mint faces volatility from external factors. However, both companies have demonstrated flexibility and adaptability to overcome risks, as seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The program concludes by emphasizing the importance of competent, transparent, and adaptable management for investment success. It also previews an upcoming segment on inheritance planning, discussing strategies for passing on wealth seamlessly to future generations, including the challenges of dividing assets like land and business shares equally, and preparing for inheritance and land taxes.