Pétrôle : Le trade populaire qui peut faire très mal - La Météo des Marchés

The market has seen a significant breakdown, with leading stocks like Nvidia losing support and Microsoft showing a slight rebound after two days in a particular zone. Apple also experienced a challenging day but bounced back on support. Many of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks are currently resting on their support levels, leading to the idea that despite broken structures and the potential for further declines, a rebound might be imminent. This presenter is taking a risk by anticipating such a rebound, acknowledging the possibility of being completely wrong, especially if the American session leads to further crashes and an oil price explosion, invalidating the thesis. The strategy involves trying to foresee what others might not, particularly concerning the energy sector, which is currently "super crowded" with investors. The presenter notes that such widespread enthusiasm often precedes an unexpected downturn, drawing a parallel to the sudden dip in metals like gold and silver that surprised many. With no clear support for energy stocks and many investors potentially over-leveraged, the presenter suggests a potential news event could trigger a reversal between tech and oil. The presenter has a short position that is close to being stopped out but is playing by their own terms, considering a surprise rebound plausible, even if it doesn't reverse macro breakdowns or permanently halt the dollar's strength. Such a rebound could be a small, surprising impulse. The alternative scenario is an acceleration of the market decline, a capitulation that was anticipated but didn't fully materialize yesterday. The presenter mentions the possibility of a "push to 40" that would stop VIX shorters. Being at a critical juncture, these daily videos can sometimes be based on high-probability plays, but at other times, on "flair"—an intuitive sense of a potential reversal. The primary motivation for this "reverse" idea is a significant, unexplained 8% gap down in the VIX, suggesting that some players might be preparing for a rotation. Looking at yesterday's S&P 500 session, there was an increase in buyers and a decrease in short closures towards the end. Sector-wise, materials showed some activity but not "frenzied." Communication looked "pretty good" in some areas. Energy saw a closure of long positions yesterday, indicating growing caution in energy options. Other sectors like banking, healthcare, industrials, and real estate are not currently "celebrating." Technology also doesn't look promising, with Nvidia's situation described as "really not pretty," possibly indicating extreme panic. Utilities, however, are interesting and align with a thesis presented earlier today about potentially "hot" sectors. The market needs to signal readiness for "risk on" mode, which currently isn't happening except in very specific sectors. The S&P 500 hasn't seen a standard rebound in a while, which could quickly push it towards the weekly open or the last resistance. The presenter also touches on political influence, noting that Trump's announcement about negotiations with Iran, similar to an incident last week, had little market impact yesterday, especially after Iran denied any discussions. This highlights the strong and seemingly bullish oil market. The initial idea was to question if the apparent breakout in oil was merely a range. If it is a range and the price re-enters the psychological 100 mark, then the breakout could be mirrored by a similar amplitude decline. The presenter concludes by reiterating the two main possibilities: a surprise rebound or an accelerated capitulation. They emphasize the importance of risk management, cautioning against the common tendency to hold onto losing investments based on hope. Unlike some, the presenter and Alpha Team select assets based on trends and manage risk, avoiding "hope-based" investing. They acknowledge the possibility of historical market movements, including a recession or major crisis, and advise against blindly following the crowd by "going down with the ship." Finally, the presenter mentions that there will be no market activity or market weather update on Friday. They encourage listeners to join Alpha Team for disciplined trading, risk management, and building the necessary tools for effective investing, stressing that personal beliefs and prayers should not influence trading decisions.