Investir en bourse en temps de guerre

This summary provides a comprehensive overview of the market analysis regarding the impact of war on financial assets, based on historical data and current technical trends. ### **The Paradox of War and the Stock Market** The current geopolitical tension, specifically involving Iran and missile strikes, often triggers immediate emotional distress and financial panic among investors. However, a historical analysis of the U.S. stock market reveals a surprising and "stunning" reality: markets typically perform well following the onset of a conflict. Data processed through artificial intelligence shows that 30 days after the start of major conflicts—such as the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, the Iraq War, and the invasion of Ukraine—U.S. indices recorded gains ranging from +3% to +12%. Even more specifically, when looking at historical instances of aerial missile strikes (including the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kosovo, and previous Syrian or Iranian tensions), the S&P 500 has consistently shown positive performance 30 days later. In fact, there is not a single recorded instance in these specific scenarios where the market remained in negative territory after a month. This phenomenon is driven by the shift from uncertainty to certainty. Markets despise the "waiting period" and the unknown. Once missiles are launched, the "scenario is written." Investors stop fearing the possibility of war and begin pricing in the resolution. Furthermore, war triggers massive defense spending, creating lucrative replacement contracts for the armament industry. It also reaffirms U.S. technological and economic hegemony, which reassures global markets about the stability of the American-led financial system. Consequently, the narrative shifts from fear to a projected boost in GDP and industrial activity. ### **The All-Weather Portfolio Strategy** Despite the headlines, the speaker emphasizes a disciplined approach to asset management through an "All-Weather" portfolio. This strategy is designed to welcome volatility rather than flee from it. Historically, this type of portfolio manages drawdowns effectively; while it can dip by about 12% during extreme stress, it is currently only experiencing a 6% decline. The core philosophy is to avoid "emergency interventions." History shows that shocks like Brexit or various terrorist attacks generate intense short-term stress that is often forgotten within a week. By maintaining a diversified structure that balances different asset classes, an investor can remain calm and avoid emotional selling. The goal is to have a portfolio that functions regardless of who wins a war or which country holds technological dominance. ### **Cryptocurrencies: A Bearish Outlook** In contrast to the potential resilience of stocks, the cryptocurrency market currently exhibits a bearish trend. Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling under a clear "ceiling" of resistance. As long as it fails to reintegrate into its previous trading range, the force of gravity continues to pull it southward. The situation is similar for altcoins. Ripple (XRP) remains stuck in a large bearish triangle with significant downside potential. Ethereum (ETH) is currently stabilizing on a long-term support level. While there is a hope for a bounce toward the top of its range, this support is fragile. If Bitcoin enters a deeper bear market, Ethereum will likely break its long-term support to the downside. ### **The "Fly to Quality": The US Dollar and the Euro** The conflict has triggered a "fly to quality" or "fly to security" move among global investors, benefiting the U.S. Dollar. The dollar is currently moving within a large, long-term bullish channel. Technical analysis reveals a "fractal" pattern—a series of double bottoms within larger formations—suggesting a powerful impulsive wave is starting. The forecast for the U.S. Dollar is a continued rise, potentially gaining another 7.5% by 2026 as it targets the top of its bullish channel. This strength comes at the expense of the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is displaying a "head and shoulders" pattern, a classic sign of a market reversal. This suggests a long-term weakening of the Euro, with a potential return to levels around 1.08 or even parity by 2026–2027. ### **Gold and Commodities: The War Catalysts** Gold continues to serve its role as a hedge against uncertainty. It is currently in a parabolic movement, characterized by increasingly frequent and sharp price increases. There are two likely scenarios for gold: either a brief consolidation followed by a new surge, or a "hyper-climax run" where it hits new all-time highs almost immediately. The war in Iran serves as a major fundamental catalyst that favors the latter, more aggressive scenario. Commodities, tracked by the DBC index, are also seeing a significant breakout. Historically, commodities move in violent, vertical spikes that cause significant "psychological damage" to the general population through rapid price increases. However, these movements are usually short-lived, lasting between one and two quarters. Oil, specifically, has extracted itself from a large base and is poised for a fast and strong run-up. While this will likely cause short-term pain, history suggests that such spikes are followed by an equally swift "return of the pendulum" to the south. Investors should expect a volatile few months in the energy sector followed by a eventual normalization. ### **Conclusion** The main takeaway for investors is to distinguish between emotional reactions to tragic news and the factual behavior of financial markets. While war is devastating on a human level, it often acts as a catalyst for specific market cycles. By utilizing a diversified "All-Weather" approach—incorporating gold, the dollar, and commodities to offset potential equity volatility—investors can navigate these periods without succumbing to panic. The current data suggests that despite the immediate shock, the next 30 days could see a surprising recovery in traditional indices, while the dollar and gold remain the primary beneficiaries of the "security" trade.