HOLY GAMESTOP AND EBAY!

GameStop is back in the news, with CEO Ryan Cohen reportedly preparing an offer to acquire eBay. This move is part of Cohen's ambitious plan to transform GameStop into a $100 billion juggernaut. Currently, GameStop has a market value of around $11 billion, while eBay stands at approximately $40 billion. GameStop is trading close to its cash value, though it does carry some long-term debt. Back in January, Ryan Cohen hinted at taking a stake in a consumer or retail stock, aligning with his $35 billion stock compensation plan. This plan essentially requires GameStop's value to increase tenfold. Acquiring a larger company like eBay, even if it comes with significant debt, could potentially help achieve this valuation, especially if combined with a "meme squeeze." Cohen's stock options don't expire until 2036, and even after vesting, he would need to hold the shares for two years. His compensation plan is also tied to EBITDA hurdles, indicating a focus on actual business growth. Examining GameStop's fundamentals, the company has started generating positive cash flow. While cash flow was negative in 2023, it is projected to reach approximately $597 million in free cash flow for 2024. A substantial portion of this free cash flow is being invested in Bitcoin; GameStop purchased an additional $500 million in digital assets in 2025 and held around 4,710 Bitcoin as of February 26. The company reported a $131 million loss on digital assets, which aligns closely with previous estimates. Bitcoin's price has been recovering since then, though it remains below the $85,000 mark used in some earlier calculations. GameStop's cash flow growth isn't driven by revenue growth, as top-line sales have actually been shrinking. Instead, gross profit has increased, primarily due to selling higher-margin collectibles like Pokémon cards. The company has also aggressively slashed its selling, general, and administrative (SGNA) expenses. This cost-cutting strategy, likely involving workforce reductions and leveraging AI, is seen as a smart move for corporate efficiency. Despite a rising share count (up 39% on a diluted basis), net income has been exploding due to these cost controls. GameStop's balance sheet shows roughly $9 billion in cash, but after accounting for short-term liabilities and $4.2 billion in long-term debt, their free and clear equity is between $4.3 billion and $5.4 billion. This limited equity makes a direct, controlling acquisition of eBay, a company ten times its size, challenging. In contrast, eBay presents a strong financial picture. It generates substantial cash flow, nearly $1 billion every three months, and actively repurchases its stock, reducing share count. eBay's revenues are up 19.4% year-over-year, with gross profit increasing by 21.1%. Operating expenses are relatively stable, and the company maintains good pricing power. eBay's EPS isn't growing rapidly, partly due to smaller other income. The stock has a forward P/E ratio of 19.2 and a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio of about 1.9, with projected growth of 10% per year for the next four years. A fair valuation for eBay is estimated at around $160-$162 per share, suggesting a potential 38% upside even after recent price movements. While an eBay acquisition would align with an "Amazon-like" strategy of combining online and brick-and-mortar retail, the analyst suggests an alternative: Etsy. Etsy is a smaller company with a $6 billion market cap, offering a cheaper entry point and a strong online marketplace footprint. An acquisition of Etsy by GameStop would result in an $18 billion company, requiring a 5x increase to reach the $100 billion goal, compared to eBay's path, which would create a $56 billion company, already halfway there. Etsy's stock, though still recovering from previous lows, was identified as a strong buy in October, and has since risen 20%. The company's gross profit is up 2.5%, and revenues are up 3.1%. Operating expenses have been managed, and the company generates about $70 million in net income and $79 million in cash flow. While Etsy's cash flow is significantly lower than eBay's, it also buys back stock at three times the rate of its stock compensation. Etsy has a decent balance sheet with enough cash to cover short-term debt, though it carries $2.5 billion in long-term debt. The stock has an exceptionally low PEG ratio of 0.83, suggesting high upside potential, with a price target of around $202-$222 per share, indicating a potential 3x increase. The analyst believes GameStop might not have sufficient equity for a controlling stake in eBay, but could aim for an influencing position or partnership. A more plausible scenario could involve GameStop strategically leaking news about an eBay interest to drive up eBay's stock price, then selling their stake for profit, and using that cash to acquire a company like Etsy. This would be a "4D chess" move, leveraging market excitement for a more affordable and potentially higher-upside acquisition. The video concludes with a casual segment involving opening a Pokémon card pack, highlighting the collectible nature of some GameStop products and the inherent "gambling" aspect, particularly for children. The host expresses personal enjoyment of collecting Legos and Bionicles, connecting it to the types of items found on platforms like eBay.