Bitcoin : le rally a-t-il des jambes ? - La Météo des Marchés

Welcome to the market weather report. Today, the focus will be on Bitcoin due to a recent rally over the weekend. Looking at the open interest, which is a key indicator, there's been a significant push on Okex. Okex is considered smart money in the crypto world, and their activity suggests they've fueled this derivative rally. We also need to check the spot market to get a complete picture. Funding rates remain relatively low, not extremely negative, despite a widespread "extreme fear" sentiment across both traditional and crypto markets. This indicates a capitulation in the crypto market. The question now is whether this capitulation is sufficient to motivate new pumps or if these are merely spasms of a market lacking vitality for the time being. People don't seem overly excited by the current rally, and key players are still holding positions, not yet closing them, which could suggest further upside. Optimism in crypto tends to come quickly, but hope can be a "disease" in this ecosystem, often working against retail investors. Binance has also seen a significant increase in open interest, with about 700 million in OI entering the market. While we've seen higher levels in the past, this influx could be a marketing effort to signal that "Bitcoin is not dead" and can still go higher. However, this derivative push for a weekend move and a relatively small overall movement (when viewed on a daily chart) is quite substantial. For swing traders, this might look like an opportunity, perhaps a small double bottom with a clear stop-loss. Personally, I wouldn't take such a trade. A good entry point for Bitcoin, in my view, is when open interest is discharged and closer to support levels rather than resistance. Historically, Binance market makers have pushed prices beyond resistance, often leading to a subsequent crash. This current situation, with much effort for little effect, feels similar. Michael Saylor, a major Bitcoin investor, is also worth observing. MicroStrategy, his company, has shown a 6% increase, which is significant but likely not enough to trigger a "short squeeze of the century." There might be a better play on MicroStrategy due to its support location compared to Bitcoin itself, although these assets are correlated. Globally, the market is mixed. Asian and European sessions have been subdued, and the American session shows little activity, with Tesla, for example, in the red. The dollar index is struggling to go higher, and oil prices are not falling, maintaining an upward trend. While equity markets seem to be rotating away from the energy narrative (with XOM taking a hit), it's unclear where the money is flowing next. Tech stocks like Apple, Google, and Amazon are showing some positive signs, forming bottoms and displaying several green candles, indicating an attempt at recovery. Microsoft is also trying to rally, though with difficulty. Tesla, however, appears to be an outlier, and it's probably not wise to rely on it for a market rally unless there are widespread mega-green days. The Russell index looks good, suggesting that mid-cap stocks are not dead. The VIX has significantly decreased, indicating a potential market stabilization. A recent news item about Iran's response to the US proposal to end the war in Pakistan could be a factor, though its impact is uncertain. Given that Mondays can be unpredictable, it's best to wait until tomorrow for a clearer picture. If tech stocks continue their positive trend from Thursday, with magnificent stocks reaching new all-time highs, it would signal an inflow of capital. However, significant funds are likely prioritizing upcoming elections. Donald Trump is expected to speak soon, which could potentially impact the market, possibly by delaying an ultimatum or making a definitive statement that could provide a boost. This was a brief market update. I hope this Bitcoin focus was informative. I'll be back tomorrow for another market weather report.